August 18, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

I’ve written about my decision making process in regards to how to handle the offer sheets signed by Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg this past week. The time has come to finally share my decisions on the two players.

Related: Blues sign Broberg and Holloway to offer sheets

Holloway

I really like Holloway as a player. The kid can absolutely fly, and he’s willing to use his speed to get in on the forecheck. He’s also willing to be physical, as evidenced by his 86 hits in the 2024 playoffs. He can play centre and the wing. Holloway has some untapped offensive potential as well.

Holloway fills the critical role of being a young player with a lot of speed that can contribute at a reasonable cap hit, although his new cap hit is bordering on unreasonable. It’s not a crushing cap hit, but it’s an overpayment for Holloway at this point in his career.

Let’s be honest about Holloway and his accomplishments thus far though. He’s got eighteen points in 89 NHL games, which is fourth line production. He put up five goals and seven points in 25 playoff games this past spring. That translates to 23 points over 82 games. Playoff hockey is tougher than regular season hockey, so Holloway might end up in the mid to high twenties for a point total next year should his quality of play from the playoffs continue into next season.

Holloway is a bottom six winger with the ability to moonlight in the top six. That isn’t an irreplaceable asset by any stretch. Holloway also has developed a history of injuries in his young professional career.

It would be smart to look for a cheaper option. Nick Robertson is a 22-year old left winger that has 34 points in 87 NHL games, including 27 points in 56 games last season. Robertson has requested a trade from the Toronto Maple Leafs. I think that Leafs GM Brad Treliving is more inclined to keep Robertson, but it would be worth it for Oilers GM Stan Bowman to ask the question.

Having said that, I think the Oilers could keep Holloway and reasonably expect him to play up to his new cap hit by the end of the contract. I like that he’s able to play centre and wing, and there is definitely more offensive production in him. It would hurt to give him up for a third rounder, although I don’t think that return is far out of line considering that 2020 seventh overall pick Alexander Holtz (34 points in 110 NHL games) went to the Vegas Golden Knights with backup goaltender Akira Schmid for a third round pick and fourth liner Paul Cotter earlier this summer.

Broberg

The tougher decision lies with Broberg.

Some people will scoff at the $4,580,917 cap hit and wish Broberg luck with the St. Louis Blues. Others see value in the player and the risk involved in keeping him. 

Mattias Ekholm, Brett Kulak, and Broberg all have two years left on their deals. Darnell Nurse is the only left-handed defenceman that the Oilers have signed beyond the 2025-26 season. Ekholm will be 36 years old then, and Kulak will be 32 years old. Broberg will be 25 years old.

I don’t think Kulak will be a factor for a top four role in 2026-27. The question is will either Ekholm or Broberg be a top four defenceman in 2026-27?

Ekholm is amazing right now, so it’s hard to fathom the idea that he might not be a top four defenceman in 2026-27. He will be 36 years old entering that season though. There are only three top four defencemen in the NHL right now that are 36 years old or older: Brent Burns, Jeff Petry, and Kris Letang.

There aren’t many examples of top four defencemen that were 36 or more years old in recent years. Here’s a short list of examples:

The thing that all of those players have in common is that they were all undisputed number one defencemen on their teams at some point in their careers. The same applies to Burns and Letang. Petry has never been viewed as an elite number one defenceman, but he had some solid years with the Montreal Canadiens.

Ekholm has never been a true number one defenceman on his team. There’s a chance that he ages gracefully like Petry has, but the odds say that Ekholm is unlikely to be a top four defenceman after his current contract expires.

I discussed Broberg’s development and his chances of becoming a top four defenceman in a piece on Thursday. His slow development suggests that the odds of him ever becoming a top four defenceman are slim. However, I personally think that he has the skill set to overcome those slim odds if he was to be given an opportunity in a position where he can succeed.

The Oilers are likely going to be in the market for a left-handed second pairing defenceman in 2026-27 based on what I just wrote. They’re going to get a look at Ekholm in the next two years no matter what. If the Oilers believe that Ekholm will age gracefully and continue playing at a high level into the 2026-27 season, then they probably won’t keep Broberg.

If the Oilers have hesitation about Ekholm as a top four defenceman beyond his current contract, then they might entertain a discussion about keeping Broberg. Keeping Broberg would allow them to look at two players that could potentially take a spot in the top four in 2026-27. 

The organization clearly likes Broberg, but we don’t know if they like him to the tune of $4,580,917 for each of the next two years. If they don’t think he’s worth the cap hit, then they will let Broberg walk.

I see two scenarios where the answer would be to let Broberg walk, and one where the answer would be to keep him.

There’s another risk in keeping Broberg aside from his high cap hit and the potential difficulties it could present. Let’s say that the Oilers keep Broberg and he doesn’t develop the way that they hoped he would. Then his trade value would become quite low. 

We watched that situation play out with Jesse Puljujarvi. The Oilers refused to trade him because they didn’t like the potential return. They ended up having to trade him for nothing to create cap space because he didn’t develop into the player they thought he could become.

Puljujarvi and Broberg are the Oilers’ only top ten picks in the Connor McDavid era. It would be a real shame to lose both players, especially for nothing. The Oilers would at least get a second round pick for Broberg by letting him walk away now. Honestly, that isn’t a bad return for a former first round pick that hasn’t grabbed a hold of a roster spot entering his draft plus six season.

The other factor we have to consider is the fact that Broberg expressed his desire to leave the Oilers organization last year. I don’t blame him for that because Ken Holland did everything in his power to block Broberg’s path to an NHL roster spot. It’s also fair to say that Broberg hasn’t earned one though.

Related: Broberg Seeking Trade

The Oilers will have lost a shade over $9.5 million and a second round pick if they were to keep Broberg and lose the bet. They could also end up with a great second pairing defenceman for the better part of the next decade if they keep him.

My decision

My inclination is to keep Holloway. The Oilers can easily work with his cap hit, and I believe that he will grow into that cap hit by the time the contract ends. Evander Kane has battled injuries the last two years and is about to have surgery that will keep him out for months.The Oilers need Holloway in the system because there’s nothing else coming to replace those players any time soon.

The decision on Broberg was much more difficult. As I wrote in a previous post, the Oilers have a good hand with Broberg, and the Blues raised the pot pre-flop with the Broberg offer sheet. It will cost the Oilers $4,580,917 for the next two years to see the flop. 

Related: The Blues see something in Broberg

No professional poker player would ever recommend chasing flushes and straights. That’s what the Oilers would be doing if they were to keep Broberg. It could be a great hand, but it could also turn into a terrible hand if the cards don’t go the Oilers’ way. 

Ultimately, Broberg won’t turn into a top four defenceman unless he’s put into a position where he can succeed now. That would entail trading Kulak to create a spot for Broberg on the left side in my opinion. I would do that, but I don’t think the Oilers would do that.

As Jackson hinted on July 1, 2024, the likely plan is to play Broberg on the right side. That could be with Nurse, which would be a TERRIBLE plan. If they aren’t going to use him properly and if they’re going to continue to make decisions that actively work against Broberg developing into a top four defenceman, then there’s no point in taking the risk.

The Oilers don’t have a first or a second round pick in the 2025 NHL draft. Getting the 2025 second round pick for Broberg would either allow the Oilers to add at the deadline, or to add a prospect to their depleted prospect list. 

As much as I love Broberg as a player, I wouldn’t want to risk losing him for nothing two years from now, especially if he’s already unhappy with his lot in life as an Oiler due to his utilization. My decision would be to let him walk.

That’s a really hard decision to come to because I think highly of Broberg and I realize how hard it is to find top four defencemen. My heart wants to keep Broberg, and I believe in planning for the long-term as well as the short-term; but I just think that the Oilers will continue to blunder his development and lose the bet as a result.

We’ll see what Tuesday brings. I’ll have a reaction to whatever decision is made on Tuesday, so look out for that.