October 20, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Edmonton Oilers have had trouble getting the engine started early in the 2024-25 season. The engine is cranking, but it hasn’t started yet. The team fell to 2-4 after Saturday’s loss to the Dallas Stars in a rematch of the Western Conference Final.

There are several reasons for the Oilers’ inability to get things moving in the right direction this season. What I’ve heard from talking to a lot of Oilers fans is that there are a lot of new players on the team, and the group is just taking some time to gel.

Jeff Skinner has four points in the team’s first six games. He’s played on three different lines already, but he’s producing. Viktor Arvidsson hasn’t looked all that dangerous yet, but his underlying numbers are solid and his five-on-five goal share is even. He’s not killing it, but he’s not hurting the team.

Vasily Podkolzin is leading the team in hits. He has played most of the season on the fourth line with Corey Perry and Derek Ryan, and that line has been fairly effective. Podkolzin has also played with Adam Henrique and Connor Brown, who each have a goal to their credit. The former Vancouver Canuck got a brief stint in the top six, but he did not record a point while playing on a scoring line. I’m not pinning the team’s slow start on a fourth liner though.

The Oilers have three new defencemen. Ty Emberson had a horrendous start, but he looked better in Saturday’s loss to the Stars. His five-on-five goal share is 1-4 (20%), but his expected goal share is 59.07%. He needs to be better, and I feel that he will settle in. Travis Dermott has only played in three games, and his five-on-five goal share is 0-3. His xGF% is 40.26%. Dermott has made some good plays in those three games, but the numbers are what they are. Troy Stecher has been fine. His goal share is 2-3 (40%), but his other underlying metrics are all hovering around 50%. These three new defencemen have been slowly leaking goals against, but I don’t think they are the biggest reasons for the team’s early struggles.

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Blaming all the new guys for the 2-4 record is too easy. There’s room for growth there, but I’m looking higher up the lineup.

I’ve seen a lot of Connor McDavid on the highlights of opponents’ goals in the first two weeks of the season. He’s been on the ice for six five-on-five goals against already (3-6, 33.33%), which is more than any other player on the team. That’s one per game! He normally outscores any mistakes that he might make, but he only has one five-on-five goal and three five-on-five points. He only has six points on the season. I say “only” because this is McDavid. A point per game pace is fantastic for most players, but he isn’t most players. He’s the best player on the planet. That level of offensive production is far below his standard.

Zach Hyman has been on McDavid’s wing all season. He’s been on the ice for four five-on-five goals against (3-5, 37.5%). Hyman scored 54 goals last season, and he got 77 points. Then he added sixteen more goals and 22 more points in the playoffs last season. Hyman has exactly zero goals and zero points through six games this season. He’s had his chances, and he’s had a goal called back; but it just isn’t going in for him right now.

Leon Draisaitl has also been on for four five-on-five goals against, but he has at least been able to keep his goal share even (5-5, 50%). Draisaitl only has four five-on-five points in six games, and only five points in total. That’s also well below his standard. Head coach Kris Knoblauch benched Draisaitl after he took a totally needless penalty just fifteen seconds after the Philadelphia Flyers scored a goal at the end of the second period of Tuesday’s game. He went on to assist on the game tying goal and to score the overtime winner, so the benching clearly had some kind of positive effect; but it’s rare for a superstar like Draisaitl to get benched.

Mattias Ekholm leads the defencemen in five-on-five goals allowed while on the ice with five (5-5, 50%), but he has also been able to keep his goal share even. Evan Bouchard is getting outscored 3-4 (42.86%) at five-on-five right now. He’s been fighting the puck a little bit early in the season, just like he did last year. The results aren’t as disastrous as they were last season, but they aren’t where they should be.

The good news is that the underlying stats for the fab five have been at their usual ridiculously high levels, which suggests that the tides will turn for them in short order.

It isn’t so rosy for all of the Oilers’ stars though. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has had a rough start to the season. He’s been outscored 0-3, and his xGF% is a dismal 36.84%. He only has two points in the first six games.

If you need more evidence that the top players have been struggling, we can look at the futility of the powerplay. It’s running at a pathetic 6.7% success rate (1/15), good for 30th in the league. The NHL’s most successful powerplay of all-time only has one powerplay goal in six games. That’s nowhere near good enough.

I’m also going to mention Darnell Nurse in this space. I feel that he’s been better than he was last season. He’s making better passes, and he’s being more physical. However, he’s been outscored 3-5 (37.5%) at five-on-five. To be fair, I will say that two of those goals against came in the season opener against the Winnipeg Jets, and I feel that Emberson made the mistakes on both goals. The numbers are what they are though. Nurse’s improved play needs to result in a better goal share.

It takes contributions from everyone to have a winning team. The best players aren’t entirely at fault. The penalty killing has been atrocious (55%, 32nd in the league), the goaltending hasn’t been up to standard, the team’s defensive play hasn’t been good enough, and the scoring has gone MIA. 

You can’t argue that the Oilers will only go as far as their best players take them though. Their best players haven’t been good enough in the team’s first six games. There’s no sugar coating it. They need to be better.

The underlying numbers are there, and they are starting to generate more chances. Those are all good signs and evidence that they aren’t playing THAT poorly; but this is a results oriented business. The results need to start coming for the team’s best players. The results won’t come for the team until that happens.