November 7, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

Evander Kane was sixth in the NHL with 250 hits last season. That’s a lot of physicality on the LTIR right now. Consider that the Edmonton Oilers also lost Vincent Desharnais’s size and his 135 hits this summer. Dylan Holloway was second in the playoffs last spring with 86 hits in just 25 games. For context, Warren Foegele had 89 hits in 82 games last season. Those 89 hits are also gone from the Oilers’ lineup this season. Cody Ceci represents 91 vacated hits from last season’s team. Lastly, Ryan McLeod and his 65 hits are also gone.

Related: Kane goes onto LTIR after all

Replacing those players this season are Jeff Skinner (26 hits in 74 games), Viktor Arvidsson (8 hits in 18 games), Adam Henrique (99 hits in 82 games), Troy Stecher (67 hits in 54 games), Ty Emberson (94 hits in 30 games), and Vasily Podkolzin (36 hits in 19 games).

Skinner has essentially replaced Kane’s role. Asking Skinner to replace Kane’s physicality is like asking him to jump across the Grand Canyon. It’s just not going to happen.

Arvidsson replaced Foegele’s spot in the top six, and he hits far less than Foegele does. Henrique (McLeod), Podkolzin (Holloway), Stecher (Ceci) and Emberson (Desharnais) all hit at a higher rate last season than the players that they replaced did though.

The team lost a significant amount of speed and hits this summer. There are concerns about the Oilers being slower and softer this season. One could easily create a direct relationship between speed and hits because you need to get there in time to be able to legally hit a player. The Oilers’ lack of hits this season and their slow start have only exacerbated those concerns.

The question at hand is does it matter? Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch was asked about the fact that his team is 32nd in the league in hits per 60, and 27th in the league in blocked shots during his media availability on Thursday.

“If you look at hits, probably the worst teams in the league have the most hits because they don’t have the puck. We lead the league in puck possession, so that’s obviously pretty tough to get hits when you possess the puck and if you do, that’s probably an issue. And as for shot blocking, same thing. We give up the fewest shot attempts, so if we give up the fewest shot attempts, we’re in fewer situations to block shots, so a team that blocks a lot of shots and hits are probably teams that aren’t very good… to look at stats, especially those two stats, I think those are nice to look at and say that you did a good job at that, but it’s usually a stat that you don’t want to be leading in.”

Last year’s Florida Panthers would beg to differ. They led the league in hits last season, and they beat the Oilers in the Stanley Cup Final.

Conventional wisdom suggests that physicality is vital to winning a Stanley Cup because you need to be able to wear teams down over the course of a series and a playoff run. The intimidation also plays a role in the decision making of opponents, which can lead to turnovers. The hits themselves can also lead to turnovers.

However, Knoblauch has a point. The only player on the ice that can legally be hit is the player with the puck, so it stands to reason that teams that hit more don’t have the puck as much.

I decided to look and see where recent Stanley Cup champions ranked in the league in hits to see if there’s a direct correlation to hits and championships. Here’s what I found:

Stanley Cup Champion	Regular Season Hits Rank	League Hits Leader Finish
2008-09 Pittsburgh Penguins	7th	NYR – Out Rd 1
2009-10 Chicago Blackhawks	25th	DAL – MP
2010-2011 Boston Bruins	21st	NYR – Out Rd 1
2011-2012 Los Angeles Kings	2nd	NYR – Out ECF
2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks	30th	TOR – Out Rd 1
2013-14 Los Angeles Kings	1st	LAK – SC, CBJ – Out Rd 1
2014-15 Chicago Blackhawks	29th	NYI – Out Rd 1
2015-16 Pittsburgh Penguins	12th	LAK – Out Rd 1
2016-17 Pittsburgh Penguins	8th	LAK – MP
2017-18 Washington Capitals	14th	MTL – MP (EDM 2nd – MP)
2018-19 St. Louis Blues	24th	PIT – Out Rd 1
2019-20 Tampa Bay Lightning	7th	OTT – MP
2020-21 Tampa Bay Lightning	9th	MTL – Out SCF (EDM 5th – Out Rd 1)
2021-22 Colorado Avalanche	23rd	NSH – Out Rd 1
2022-23 Vegas Golden Knights	13th	PIT – MP
2023-24 Florida Panthers	1st	FLA – SC

There are certainly some interesting findings in this table. Only two teams have led the league in hits and won the Stanley Cup in the same season since 2008-09: last year’s Panthers and the 2013-14 Los Angeles Kings.

The Kings were clearly a physical team during their glory days. They led the league in hits in three seasons, and finished second in another one (in which they also won the Stanley Cup). Contrast the Kings with the three-time champion Chicago Blackhawks who finished dead last, second last, and sixth last in the league in hits in the seasons that they won their Stanley Cups. For what it’s worth, the little physicality strategy has worked for Oilers GM Stan Bowman before.

The Pittsburgh Penguins and the Tampa Bay Lightning won a combined five Stanley Cups while finishing anywhere from seventh to twelfth in hits during the regular season. Seven Stanley Cup champions have finished the regular season in the top ten in hits during the regular season since 2008-09.

Conversely, six out of the sixteen Stanley Cup championship teams since 2008-09 finished in the bottom third of the league in hits during the regular season. The 2018-19 St. Louis Blues were considered to be a really physical team, but the numbers say that they finished 24th in hits that season. The 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche rolled through the league on their way to their Stanley Cup win, and they finished 23rd in hits.

Interestingly, thirteen teams that led the league in hits during the regular season did not advance beyond the first round of the playoffs. Only four regular season hits leading teams advanced beyond the first round of the playoffs. Two of those teams won the Stanley Cup, and one other made the Stanley Cup Final. One other team made it as far as the Conference Final.

All of this information tells me that there’s no direct correlation between hitting and championships. There’s a pretty strong correlation between leading the league in hits and not advancing beyond the first round. For what it’s worth, the Oilers failed to reach round two in both of the seasons that they finished top five in hits in the regular season since 2008-09.

There’s more than one way to win a championship. The Oilers have clearly decided to use a strategy that doesn’t revolve around hitting. The roster is loading with scoring talent, and they employ a strategy that encourages puck possession over physicality. You can’t score if you don’t have the puck, afterall. There’s enough recent data to suggest that it isn’t a losing strategy.

The Oilers’ lack of hitting doesn’t suggest a lack of emotion or a lack of desire. It doesn’t represent laziness to me. It’s just a result of strategy. They’re getting the puck possession results that they want, but that isn’t leading to wins early in the 2024-25 season. That’s the way it goes sometimes. I have absolutely no doubt that the Oilers will be able to get things going, and it won’t be because of hitting.