November 26, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson were the big free agent splashes for the Edmonton Oilers this past summer. Oilers CEO Jeff Jackson was lauded for adding these two veteran top six wingers on value deals.

Related: 2024 Oilers Free Agency Wrap

The early returns on both players have been underwhelming to say the least. Skinner’s four goals tie him for fourth on the team, but the bar has been set pretty low by his peers. Arvidsson has missed the last six games with an undisclosed injury, and he will not play this week either. Before that, he only had two goals and five points in sixteen games.

The point of this post isn’t to point out the obvious early struggles of the team’s new prized acquisitions. The sad reality is that Oilers fans have seen this movie play out many times before.

There is a very real tendency for new Oilers acquisitions expected to be top six or even top nine forwards to experience drop-offs in offensive production as Oilers, a lot of which have been sudden and drastic. It doesn’t always happen in the player’s first season with the Oilers; but as surely as the sun rises, the offence dries up for shiny new Oilers acquisitions. It’s a problem that has spanned over the tenures of several management regimes and coaching staffs.

I explored the annals going back to the beginning of the Decade of Darkness to find several examples of this phenomenon in action.

Kevin Lowe Era

Like Skinner and Arvidsson, Sykora signed with the Oilers in the summer of 2006, shortly after the team lost in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. He was coming off a season in which he got 51 points in 74 games (0.69 points per game) with the Anaheim Ducks and the New York Rangers. Sykora’s production dipped to 53 points in 82 games (0.65 ppg) in 2006-07. Then he put up 63 points in 81 games (0.78 ppg) for the Pittsburgh Penguins the next season!

Lupul was a key piece of the Oilers’ return in the Chris Pronger trade in 2006. The Ft. Saskatchewan native put up 53 points in 81 games (0.65 ppg) for the Anaheim Ducks in 2005-06, then came to the Oilers and was only able to muster 28 points in 81 games (0.35 ppg) in 2006-07. Lupul got traded to the Philadelphia Flyers the next summer, and he immediately put up 46 points in 56 games (0.82 ppg) for the Flyers in 2007-08. His production never fell anywhere near the low he established as an Oiler until his final NHL season in 2015-16.

Cole technically played in the Steve Tambellini era, but Kevin Lowe acquired him about a month before Tambellini became GM of the Oilers. Cole had a three-year run of really productive seasons for the Carolina Hurricanes, the last and least productive of which was a 51 point in 73 game (0.7 ppg) effort in 2007-08. He came to Edmonton in 2008-09 and only got 27 points in 63 games (0.43 ppg). Cole was traded back to the Hurricanes at the trade deadline that season, and he got fifteen points in seventeen games (0.88 ppg).

Steve Tambellini Era

O’Sullivan came to the Oilers in a weird set of moves that saw him get traded from the Los Angeles Kings to the Hurricanes for Justin Williams, then to Edmonton for Cole. He got 53 points in 82 games (0.65 ppg) in 2007-08, and he had 37 points in 62 games (0.6 ppg) before the trade in 2008-09. O’Sullivan came to the Oilers and got six points in nineteen games (0.32 ppg) after the trade. He then put up 34 points in 73 games (0.47 ppg) in 2009-10. O’Sullivan was out of the league by 2012-13.

Craig MacTavish Era

Perron had several decent seasons for the St. Louis Blues prior to being acquired by the Oilers in 2013, including 42 points in 57 games (0.74 ppg) in 2011-12. He had 25 points in 48 games (0.53 ppg) in 2012-13. Perron had a great first season in Edmonton (57 points in 78 games, 0.73 ppg); but his production fell to nineteen points in 38 games (0.5 ppg) in 2014-15 before being traded to the Penguins on January 2, 2015. His production stayed low in PIttsburgh and for the Ducks over the next couple of seasons, but he enjoyed a run of success from 2017-18 up until the 2022-23 season.

Purcell was acquired from the Tampa Bay Lightning for Sam Gagner, who was subsequently flipped to the Arizona Coyotes the same day. Purcell had a 65-point season in 2011-12, but got 42 points in 81 games (0.52 ppg) in his last season with the Lightning in 2013-14. Purcell only got 34 points in 82 games (0.41 ppg) for the Oilers in 2014-15. It got slightly better for Purcell in 2014-15 (32 points in 61 games, 0.52 ppg) before he was traded to the Florida Panthers, where he got eleven points in fifteen games (0.73 ppg).

Pouliot actually had two good years as a Oiler (34 points in 58 games, 0.59 ppg; 36 points in 55 games, 0.65 ppg) in 2014-15 and 2015-16, but his production plummeted to fourteen points in 67 games (0.21 ppg) in 2016-17.

Peter Chiarelli Era

Lucic is the poster boy for this phenomenon. He was a proven top six winger with the Boston Bruins for many years before joining the Kings in 2015-16, where he got 55 points in 81 games (0.68 points per game). Lucic had one decent season for the Oilers (50 points in 82 games, 0.61 points per game), but his production cratered from there in his last two seasons with the Oilers (34 points in 82 games, 0.41 ppg; 20 points in 79 games, 0.25 ppg). Lucic’s production improved ever so slightly with the Calgary Flames in his next two seasons, but he was never able to return to form.

Strome was the return for Jordan Eberle in 2017. He had a 50-point season in 2014-15, but less exciting production in his last two seasons with the New York Islanders (28 points in 71 games, 0.39 ppg; 30 points in 69 games, 0.43 ppg). Strome had 34 points in 82 games (0.41 ppg) in his first season with the Oilers in 2017-18, but then his offense disappeared early in the 2018-19 season. He got just two points in eighteen games (0.11 ppg) before being traded to the Rangers, where he got 33 points in 63 games (0.52 ppg). Strome had a career-high 59 points in 70 games (0.84 ppg) for the Rangers the next season, and has been consistently productive ever since.

To make matters worse, Strome was traded for Ryan Spooner. It wasn’t like expectations were high for Spooner, but he technically ended up being the return for Eberle in the end. Spooner had a few strong seasons with the Bruins before moving onto the Rangers, where he struggled. He had two points in sixteen games (0.13 ppg) before the trade, and he had two points in 25 games for the Oilers (0.08 ppg). His microscopic production somehow got even worse while he was with the Oilers.

Rieder had a combined 25 points in 78 games (0.32 ppg) for the Kings and Coyotes in 2017-18, which was a slight decline from his previous two seasons with the Coyotes. Rieder famously went the entire season without scoring a goal for the Oilers in 2018-19. He got eleven assists in the 67 games that he played for the Oilers that season (0.16 ppg). Rieder had a slight increase in production as a Flame the next season (10 points in 55 games, 0.18 ppg).

Ken Holland Era

Neal had 44 points in 71 games (0.62 ppg) in the inaugural season for the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017-18. He struggled as a Flame with only 19 points in 63 games (0.3 ppg) in 2018-19. Neal came to the Oilers in exchange for Lucic in a deal where provincial rivals exchanged expensive contracts. Neal exploded out of the gates, scoring nineteen goals and getting 31 points in 55 games (0.56 ppg) for the Oilers in 2019-20; but then he only got ten points in 29 games (0.34 ppg) in 2020-21.

Athanasiou had tantalizing speed and an exciting 2018-19 season with the Detroit Red Wings (54 points in 76 games, 0.71 ppg), then a respectable 24 points in 46 games (0.52 ppg) in 2019-20 before joining the Oilers. The Oilers got two points in nine games (0.22 ppg) and zero points in four playoff games out of Athanasiou.

Ennis’ days as a true top six winger were behind him when he joined the Oilers, but he did have 33 points in 61 games (0.54 ppg) with the Ottawa Senators before being traded to the Oilers. Then he got four points in 9 games (0.44 ppg) before the COVID shutdown, and no points in two games in the playoffs. The local product got nine points in 30 games (0.3 ppg) in 2020-21. He went on to put up 24 points in 57 games (0.42 ppg) for the Senators the next season.

Kahun was an analytics darling that had played with Draisaitl back in Germany, so there was hope that he could be a fit with Draisaitl on the Oilers. Kahun had 31 points in 56 games (0.55 ppg) for the Penguins and the Buffalo Sabres in 2019-20. He only got 15 points in 48 games (0.31 ppg) for the Oilers.

Turris was bought out by the Nashville Predators after a season in which he got 31 points in 62 games (0.5 ppg). His production fell to five points in 27 games (0.19 ppg) for the Oilers in 2020-21, and four points in 23 games in 2021-22 (0.17 ppg). Those were his last two NHL seasons.

Brassard had sixteen points in 31 games (0.48 ppg) for the Flyers before coming to the Oilers at the trade deadline. He only got three points in fifteen games (0.2 ppg) after the trade. Brassard went on to get 23 points in 62 games for the Senators the next season (0.37 ppg).

Brown deserves some grace because he was coming off a serious knee injury that caused him to miss all but four games in the 2022-23 season; but Brown had a track record of success before last season. It took Brown until game 67 to score his first goal as an Oiler, and he had twelve points in 71 games (0.17 ppg) in 2023-24. He added six points in 19 playoff games (0.32 ppg). Brown had 39 points in 64 games (0.61 ppg) for the Senators in 2021-22, and his production was at or near that level the previous two seasons as well.

Related: Janmark and Brown appreciation Post

Henrique had a more prominent role on the Ducks last season, but he had 42 points in 60 games (0.7 ppg) before being traded to the Oilers. He got nine points in 22 games (0.41 ppg) for the Oilers after the trade deadline, and seven points in seventeen playoff games (0.41 ppg). This season, Henrique only has six points in 22 games (0.27 ppg).

Wrap

This phenomenon has stretched over a span of nearly two decades. It hasn’t mattered who the GM was or who the coaches were, and it hasn’t mattered if the team was elite or pitiful. The age of the player hasn’t really mattered much either. Only six of the nineteen players mentioned here had their drop offs after the age of 30. Age doesn’t account for the other thirteen players.

Whatever the problem is, it’s continuing with Skinner and Arvidsson this season. Zach Hyman could even be falling victim to it. After a 54-goal, 77-point season (0.96 ppg) last season, Hyman has eight points through twenty games (0.4 ppg) this season. Hyman hasn’t had production that low since his first full NHL season in 2016-17.

Maybe Bob Nicholson was right when he quipped that there might be something in the water here. I don’t know whether it’s voodoo, a curse, a hex, a malison, or a jinx; but it’s been a problem for the Oilers long enough for me to know it’s real.