February 24, 2025 by Ryan Lotsberg

Let’s call a spade a spade: Stuart Skinner is having the worst statistical season of his short NHL career. The numbers are what they are. A chorus of Edmonton Oilers fans that want to see the organization acquire a new goalie has been a constant in Oil Country as long as I can remember, but that chorus has been especially vocal this season. It’s even louder after a pair of games lost by a combined score of 13-6 this past weekend coming out of the 4 Nations Face-off break.

I’m not going to argue that the goaltenders that could be available in the trade market are not having better statistical seasons than Skinner is having this season, but I question the wisdom in making a significant decision in an important position that could impact the franchise for years to come out of frustration or panic. 

Let’s take a closer look at all three of Skinner’s seasons as the number one goalie in Edmonton:

There has been some smoke around John Gibson to the Oilers in recent weeks. Gibson left Saturday’s game with an injury of some sort, but he is expected to be back soon. The Anaheim Ducks traded for Ville Husso on Monday, which will only serve to fuel the flames behind Gibson trade rumours. Here’s the same table for Gibson:

Gibson is obviously having the superior season, but Skinner was MUCH better than Gibson was the previous two seasons. I’m not an expert on the stock market, but I believe the common advice is sell high, buy low. An acquiring team would be buying REALLY high on Gibson right now, and the price would be dear. 

If you’ve read my work or heard me on Oilerslive, then you know that I’m always looking into the future when considering roster moves. I understand that the Oilers are in “win now” mode and they haven’t won a Stanley Cup in McDavid’s tenth season. I want the Oilers to win multiple Stanley Cups in the McDavid era. My strategy would be to give the team as many chances as they can to win over the next decade. Making short-sighted decisions in pursuit of a Stanley Cup today decreases the chances of winning one down the road. Those short-sighted decisions rarely result in immediate championships. Making a habit out of instant gratification is a strategy for failure.

Look at the goaltending performance age curve created by Micah McCurdy. You have to scroll down a bit in the piece to find it. This research suggests that goaltenders begin to peak at age 26. The decline starts at age 28, and the slope steepens at age 29. Performance only goes down from there.

Skinner is 26 years old right now. I wouldn’t call this season “peak”, but it’s fair to suggest that he has entered his prime. I would characterize his career numbers as above average, but not elite. Hoping for him to dramatically improve and become the next elite NHL goaltender is wishful thinking at this point. He’s only in his third NHL season, but the numbers are what they are. We can likely expect above average goaltending from Skinner for the next three seasons before a decline to merely average occurs. This information should be taken into consideration when considering any move involving Skinner. He’s one year away from unrestricted free agency. He doesn’t have to be the guy for the next decade.

Gibson is 31 years old right now. He’s going against the trend by having an outlier season at this stage of his career. The expectation for Gibson should be significant regression over the next three seasons if the curve is to be believed. I don’t support buying high on an outlier season, especially if the plan is to use him to replace a goalie who has been better than him the last two years.

Be careful what you wish for, Oilers fans. Gibson has one year left on a contract with a cap hit of $6.4 million. The Ducks would likely have to retain some salary to make a trade happen with the Oilers, but that would be an expensive problem waiting to happen next season. 

Related: Stuart Skinner’s journey to becoming an NHL all-star

You might say “it’s worth it if we win this season”. First of all, that’s an “IF”. No trade guarantees championships. It doesn’t matter if the Oilers win with Gibson this year or not, I guarantee that the championship expectations in Edmonton will be exactly the same next season as they are this season, and fans would be upset with Gibson’s performance next season. I’m certain of that.

I’m not forgetting that Gibson had four outstanding seasons from 2015-16 through 2018-19. That’s why he has as much brand appeal in the trade market as he does. The historical data on goaltenders says that they don’t get better later in their careers. I think it’s a stupid idea to spend high quality assets in hopes that a 31-year old goaltender will regain his form from his early to mid twenties if placed on a better team.

The other goalie whose name is coming up quite often as a desirable target for the Oilers is Karel Vejmelka. The table for Vejmelka is similar to Gibson’s:

Skinner was much better than both Gibson and Vejmelka in 2022-23 and 2023-24, but both have been better than Skinner this season.

A lot of people are pointing to goals saved above expected as the money stat this season. Skinner is getting crushed by Gibson and Vejmelka in that category this season according to Moneypuck. However, Skinner crushed both of them in that category last season. Vejmelka finished ahead of Skinner in the category in 2022-23, but Gibson finished well below both of them that season.

Skinner’s save percentage on high danger shots (0.795, 17th among goalies with at least 20 games played) is actually higher than Gibson’s (0.721, 43rd) and Vejmelka’s (.660, 49th and last). Skinner has them both beat in save percentage on high danger shots above expected as well. Skinner ranks thirteenth (0.124), Gibson ranks 44th (0.049), and Vejmelka ranks 48th (-0.022). Skinner beat both Gibson and Vejmelka in that category last season as well. 

If you want to argue that Skinner needs to steal his team games and you point to the goals saved above expected stats for the goalies in question, I’d come back with these numbers that say that Skinner stops high danger shots more often than the other two do, which tells me he’s coming up more clutch more often.

Gibson has the best save percentage on low danger shots, and the highest save percentage above expected on low danger shots this season. Vejmelka is tenth in save percentage on low danger shots, and sixth in save percentage above expected on low danger shots. Skinner ranks 32nd and 36th in those two categories respectively.

Gibson (56th and 57th)  and Vejmelka (55th and 54th) were worse than Skinner (40th and 38th) in those two categories last season. Skinner has been pretty consistent in those two categories over the last two seasons, while Gibson and Vejmelka have improved dramatically in those categories this season. It’s clearly not a strength of Skinner’s, but that doesn’t explain his struggles this season.

Skinner appears to be struggling with medium danger shots. Last season, his save percentage on such shots (.879) was 21st among qualifying goalies, which was exactly the expected percentage. This season, Skinner ranks 40th while Vejmelka ranks second and Gibson ranks fifteenth in that category. Skinner beat them both in this category last season.

Related: Homemade Stu – The ascent of Stuart Skinner

The other area that Skinner appears to be struggling with is the penalty kill. According to Natural Stat Trick, his on-ice save percentage on the penalty kill is 83.46% this season, which is a career-low by 1.97%. That impacts his overall save percentage negatively.

If you only want to look at this season, then Gibson and Vejmelka are obvious upgrades on Skinner. If you use a bigger sample size, you can see that there isn’t a lot to pick and choose between the three goalies. Gibson and Vejmelka have had one good year in the last three, while Skinner has had two good years in the last three. Which versions of Gibson and Vejmelka would show up on a new team with the pressure of championship aspirations in a Canadian market: the current versions, or the versions from the last two years? Your guess is as good as mine. 

I see more consistency out of Skinner. I know what I’m getting with him. I’ve also seen what he can do in the Stanley Cup Finals. He lost the series, but that series was lost with poor team defence and a lack of scoring in Games 1-3, not because of Skinner’s goaltending. Gibson and Vejmelka have never been there.

I feel that making a splashy goaltending trade would be a form of immediate gratification that would ultimately not provide a lot of benefit in the long run, and it might not even yield a championship this season. Any player going to a new environment will not put up the exact same numbers in the new environment. It could be better, or it could be worse.

If I had to choose one of Gibson or Vejmelka to acquire, it would be Vejmelka. If he was to go to Edmonton, I believe that Skinner would have to go the other way. I think that swap would be incredibly short-sighted, and it would bite the Oilers in the ass not because Skinner is going to evolve into an elite goaltender, but because Gibson is having an outlier season in his declining years. Injuries are a concern with Gibson as well.

Vejmelka has played in 34 games this season compared to Gibson’s 24, so it’s a bigger sample size of success this season. The acquisition cost for Vejmelka would likely be lower, and he has a lower cap hit ($2,725,000). I don’t expect his next contract to be crippling either. Vejmelka is also only 28 years old. He isn’t hanging on to prime performance by a disintegrating thread. He has at least another season before he starts declining, and another two seasons at least before a steep dropoff. The odds of being able to keep Skinner while acquiring Vejmelka are also higher than they would be if the Oilers were to go after Gibson.

There’s a likely scenario where Skinner outperforms both Gibson and Vejmelka next season and over the course of the next three seasons. That won’t be a popular opinion, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that is how it plays out.

Skinner has played the third most regular season games in the entire league over the last two seasons (97). He played 59 games last year plus another 20 in the playoffs. He has played in 38 of the team’s 57 games this season according to Hockey Reference, which puts him on pace to make 55 appearances this season. Skinner got a later start than usual with his on-ice training this past summer due to the team’s long run and the short off-season.

I’m not trying to make excuses for him. He needs to be better. I also understand that professional athletes are human beings though. That’s a lot of hockey for a goaltender, especially a young one. Let’s not forget that Skinner played 50 games as a rookie in 2022-23. He was forced into having to play a lot of hockey as a young NHL goaltender, perhaps before his body was ready to handle it. Whether you accept it or not, fatigue is likely playing a factor in the numbers that we’re seeing out of Skinner.

I think that the Oilers would be wise to ease Skinner’s workload down the stretch. Calvin Pickard, whose numbers are similar to Skinner’s this season, will definitely be playing more games than he ever has in his NHL career this season. PIckard hasn’t played as often as he has this season since 2016-17, so it’s a risk to heap a ton of work onto him.

If the Oilers were to acquire a goaltender, I think the best scenario would be for Pickard to be the casualty, which is unfortunate because he’s been a great story for the Oilers. I’m not in favour of trading Skinner at all at this point though, so Pickard is the one that I would be prepared to lose.

It might be as simple as giving Olivier Rodrigue a few starts down the stretch to ease the load on Skinner and Pickard, but the games are going to be too meaningful in the standings for the Oilers to be test driving a rookie goaltender.

I would be content if the Oilers were to simply add a cheap UFA goaltender that could give the team four or five starts down the stretch just to give Skinner and Pickard a rest. That won’t happen though. Adding a third goaltender would just complicate things. Oilers GM Stan Bowman doesn’t see goaltending as a concern, and adding someone to the mix would show Skinner and Pickard a lack of trust. That matters. If the team wants to keep them both, then the team needs to trust them both.

I would also be content with maintaining the status quo in goal this season. I know that Skinner is having a rough season, but I also know he’s capable of being better. The Oilers don’t need Vezina Trophy caliber goaltending to win a Stanley Cup. They need to play sound structurally and get the above average goaltending that we’ve seen from Skinner the previous two seasons.

I’ll close by saying that Skinner is one season away from unrestricted free agency after this one. He’s not a young prospect anymore. Conversations about the future of the goaltending position for the Oilers should be underway if they’re not already. Skinner may or may not be the guy going forward. He has given the Oilers good value, but he’s not an elite goaltender. I highly doubt that Bowman will make a goaltending move this season, but the rest of the season and the coming playoffs will certainly impact the decision making process in the next year.