March 2, 2025 by Ryan Lotsberg

The status of Evander Kane is the single biggest factor that will influence the Edmonton Oilers’ trade deadline plans.

Kane has been on LTIR for the entire season. There is LTIR relief available to the Oilers, but they can’t spend it all unless they know Kane will miss the remainder of the regular season. Kane’s return date remains a mystery at this time.

I’ll go through the possible scenarios that could play out here. I’ll show you the approximate amount that the Oilers could add at the deadline in each scenario.

Remember that Oilers GM Stan Bowman’s plan was to accrue cap space to be used at the trade deadline this season. They put Kane on LTIR to give them the flexibility to exceed the salary cap during the regular season in case of emergency, but the plan was to not utilize that LTIR relief because doing so stops cap space from being accrued. Various recalls of players like Drake Caggiula, Josh Brown, Noah Philp, and Matthew Savoie have limited the amount of cap space accrued by the Oilers this season. Some of those recalls were necessary, but some were not.

The Oilers are currently using some of the LTIR pool to have Savoie on the roster. Removing Savoie would get the team’s annual cap hit (the value of all average annual salaries on the current roster plus overages, buyouts, and retained salary) under the salary cap, but just barely ($87,909,223 = $90,777 in cap space).

I wondered if the Oilers had a pool of cap space that had been previously accrued during the course of the season waiting to be accessed should they get out of LTIR before the trade deadline. I reached out to PuckPedia on X (@PuckPedia) and asked if the Oilers have much accrued cap space waiting for them if they were to send Savoie back to the AHL before the trade deadline. PuckPedia said that “They have a little but not much”. When asked if it would be enough to add a player with a league minimum salary at the deadline, PuckPedia said that “It wouldn’t be a meaningful amount.”

Remember that the Philadelphia Flyers retained 50% of Derick Brassard’s salary when he was acquired by the Oilers at the 2022 trade deadline. We can read a similar addition as a sign that Kane is coming back before the end of the season. A money in, money out trade is always a possibility as well. That would also be a clue indicating Kane’s impending return.

Scenario 2: The Oilers use SOME LTIR relief at the deadline while expecting Kane to return

In this scenario, the Oilers would need to set themselves up to be able to get under the salary cap if and when Kane returns.

Sending Savoie down before the deadline would leave the team at $87,909,223 with an active roster of 21 players. They could add one or two more players to the roster, but they would have to be able to shed enough money to get back under the cap when Kane returns.

Let’s say they add two players at the deadline in this scenario. Then they would need to waive one player to make room for Kane on the active roster. They could also waive two players and play with a shortened roster if they wanted to.

The maximum amount of one player’s contract that can be buried in the AHL this season is $1.15 million. I’ll use that number for our purposes here. If we add that value to the salary cap, then subtract the team’s annual cap hit after sending Savoie down, then we can arrive at a limit for what could be added at the deadline.

If they wanted to waive a second player, then we could add $1.15 million to that number, which would equal $2,390,777.

There aren’t many players with cap hits over $1.15 million that the Oilers would likely be willing to waive though. Maybe Mattias Janmark, but I think they would be reluctant to do that. More realistically, the Oilers could waive Kasperi Kapanen ($1 million) and/or Troy Stecher ($787,500). If we do the same math using those figures, we get this:

Remember that these figures are after sending Savoie down as well. The math is the same whether he gets sent down before or after the trade deadline. 

We also need to remember that these values would not be prorated values because the Oilers would need to use LTIR relief to add players at the deadline. The numbers add up to being able to add one player with a modest cap hit in this scenario.

They could utilize the approach of adding a league minimum player with 50% salary retention and then using LTIR relief to add a second player with a cap hit at approximately $1 million to $1.8 million in this scenario as well.

This strategy really would be slightly risky. If the waived players were to go unclaimed, then they would end up adding organizational depth. If the waived players were to be claimed, then they would essentially have replaced one or two bottom of the roster players with a new one. They could opt for a good old hockey trade that is approximately dollar for dollar and come out of it just as well.

I’ll also add that any strategy that involves risking losing two players on waivers is a poor idea because the organization will need depth for an extended playoff run.

Scenario 3: Kane gets traded

This scenario is the most interesting one because of the drama that could unfold here. Kane wants to play as soon as possible, but the Oilers presumably want to make additions at the trade deadline and have Kane available for the playoffs. Those two ideas don’t align.

Kane had to submit a list of sixteen teams that he would accept a trade to on March 1 as dictated by the terms of his contract. Elliotte Friedman reported that the Oilers are exploring the market for Kane during Saturday Headlines on Hockey Night in Canada on Saturday night, which makes all the sense in the world. Why not gather all the information available, right?

Let’s say that the Oilers send Savoie down to get to that $87,909,223 number before trading Kane. Kane’s cap hit is $5,125,000. Moving that would put the team at $82,784,223 with $5,215,777 in cap space.

While an incoming player’s cap hit would be prorated in this scenario because LTIR relief would be avoided, it doesn’t mean the Oilers could go and get anyone they wanted. Kane’s outgoing value would also be prorated. That $5,215,777 value represents the most AAV that could be added in this scenario.

I assume that Kane’s list of acceptable destinations consists of mostly playoff teams. No team would acquire Kane right now without certainty that he is going to play for them this season and help them in the playoffs. A team could wait until the summer to trade for him if they wanted him for next season. Adding a 33-year old coming off a major injury isn’t exactly a move for the future, so I don’t see any bottom feeding teams bidding for his services.

The Boston Bruins could add Kane without giving anything back; but if they were to move Brad Marchand at the trade deadline, then replacing him with another agitating left winger that could play on their top line such as Kane could be an intriguing return. They would be taking a big risk on Kane being able to perform at that level coming off his injuries though.

The Washington Capitals are having an incredible season, and they’re going to be getting Ryan Leonard as soon as he finishes his college season. They have a little bit of cap space to work with. Nic Dowd was someone that the Oilers were interested in last season as a right-handed fourth line centre. Dowd could potentially be part of a package to land Kane.

The New York Rangers are an interesting team this season. They have moved on from Jacob Trouba and Ryan Lindgren this season, and they also made a big splash by trading for JT Miller. They have a bunch of cap space available, so they could take on Kane’s full contract. Patrick Philips, aka The Oil Fanatic (@OilersFanaticYT), suggested the possibility of a trade involving Reilly Smith. Smith is a 33-year old pending UFA winger with 29 points in 58 games for the Rangers this season.

I’m not sure if Kane would go for this situation or not, but the Columbus Blue Jackets are the surprise story of the year. They currently have the first wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference, and they essentially have unlimited cap space. They could take on Kane’s entire contract without forcing the Oilers to take a contract back. Assets from a Kane to Columbus trade could be flipped in a separate deal by the Oilers.

The Dallas Stars, Tampa Bay Lightning, Utah Hockey Club, and the Minnesota Wild are all teams in the mix for playoff spots that could take on Kane’s contract as well.

Please note that these trade scenarios are all PURELY SPECULATIVE.

If Kane is not expected to return during the regular season

The math is pretty easy in this scenario. They could spend the entirety of the $5,124,947 LTIR relief pool that would be available to them. Once again, players acquired using that LTIR relief pool would not be prorated, so their full AAV would count against the cap in this scenario.

They could send Savoie down and then acquire a league minimum player with salary retention before adding another player with the LTIR relief pool. That would put the Oilers at a full 23-man roster with an undetermined amount of LTIR relief pool space left.

Kane would be eligible to return to the lineup in the playoffs without any cap implications.

Wrap

If the Oilers are going to be able to ADD to their team, then they will need to use the LTIR relief for Kane, or to trade Kane away.

We can’t rule out dollar for dollar trades involving other players as well, but scenarios with players coming off the roster aren’t ADDING to the team. Those types of trades alter the team, not add to it.

I don’t think the Oilers will announce anything definitive on Kane’s status before the trade deadline. I think that what they do before 3 pm EST on Friday will give us a much clearer sense of Kane’s status for the rest of the season.

Heavy Hockey Showdown

I’m also going to take this opportunity to plug the Heavy Hockey Showdown, which is a hockey game featuring a team from the Heavy Hockey Network (@HeavyHockeyNet) playing against a team from Edmonton Sports Talk (@yegsportstalk) in benefit of the Sexual Assualt Centre of Edmonton (@sacetalks).

The game will be played at the Downtown Community Arena on March 15 from 11 am – 2 pm. Rob Clark will be singing the anthem, and Hunter the Lynx will be on hand entertaining the crowd. The event is free to attend, but we encourage you to donate to SACE. It’s going to be a fantastic event, so I encourage you to come out and show your support while having a fun afternoon out with the family!

There will also be an Oilers road game watch party for the Oilers vs New York Islanders game on March 14 at Boston Pizza (17002 90 Ave NW) which everyone is welcome to attend. Personalities from the Heavy Hockey Network and Edmonton Sports Talk will be there, and there will be raffles happening.

We have raised $13,951 for SACE thus far, which is 27% of our $50,000 goal. We still have just under two weeks until the event to match and exceed last year’s total of just under $50,000.

SACE provides essential services such as counselling and help with the police and court systems for victims of sexual violence. They also do a lot of great work with outreach and public education. The funds they receive from the Heavy Hockey Showdown make a HUGE difference by allowing more people to access these services and by shortening the wait tiems for these vital services.

All players participating in the Heavy Hockey Showdown are raising funds for SACE. You can access a list of donation pages that you can donate to. You can also reach out to me (@lotsryan) or Michael Hebert (@oilerslive) for more details on how you can help the cause.