July 9, 2025 by Ryan Lotsberg

It was no secret that the Edmonton Oilers were in on Isaac Howard after he told the Tampa Bay Lightning that he would not sign a contract with them. The Oilers were Howard’s preferred team, and the Oilers were obviously interested in him. It was just a matter of price. As we learned on Tuesday evening, that price was Sam O’Reilly.

Coldplay concert interruption:

Tampa Bay and Edmonton have made a prospect-for-prospect trade

Sam O’Reilly for Isaac Howard

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) July 9, 2025

It’s an interesting prospect swap. It’s a late first round pick for a late first round pick. This isn’t the typical “change of scenery for both players” kind of prospect swap. The Lightning weren’t exactly enthused about having to give up Howard, and the Oilers liked O’Reilly.

The Oilers used their 2025 first round pick to trade into the first round of the 2024 NHL draft to select O’Reilly. They had him much higher on their list than where he ultimately got taken (32nd overall). O’Reilly didn’t have a big role on the London Knights in his draft year, but the Oilers were fond of his play on the defensive side of the puck. They forecasted increased offensive production from O’Reilly in his draft plus one season, and they were correct on that front. He got 71 points in 62 games for the Knights last season. O’Reilly is expected to go back to the Knights for the coming season where he is expected to have a feature role with the defending Memorial Cup champions. He’s a 6’1”, 190 lb right-handed centre that projects as a third line centre in the NHL.

Howard was drafted by the Lightning with the 31st pick in the 2022 NHL draft. Howard won the Hobey Baker Award this past season after leading the NCAA in points per game (1.41) while playing with Michigan State University. He also led the United States to a gold medal at the 2024 World Junior Championships. Howard led that tournament with seven goals in seven games. His stock has done nothing but climb since being drafted. Howard has a deceptive release and he can make creative plays in the offensive zone. He’s got quick acceleration and he’s fast enough for the NHL. He projects as a top six winger, but there’s a chance that his lack of physicality holds him back on the defensive side of the rink.

On one hand, it’s hard to find right-handed centres, especially ones that are reliable on both sides of the puck like O’Reilly is. The Oilers have been searching for a solution at third line centre for years, and O’Reilly was expected to have that role for many years in Edmonton. 

On the other hand, it’s hard to get top six forwards, especially young ones. Howard has a ton of potential and could be a great fit alongside either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl for years to come. Howard will be a value contract for three seasons, which is important as the Oilers navigate this championship window while absorbing the massive new contracts to Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, and McDavid over the next two years.

So, which prospect is better? Which prospect better suits the needs of the Oilers? Did the Oilers pay too much to get Howard?

I’m reminded of Ryan McLeod when I think of O’Reilly. It’s not because they have similar playing styles, because they’re different. McLeod is fast, likes to transport the puck through the neutral zone, and he’s not physical. O’Reilly is more competitive and not quite as good of a skater as McLeod. I’m talking about them both being projected to be third line centres and their development paths. McLeod played five years of junior hockey and two years in the AHL (and for part of a season in Switzerland before the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season) before getting a look in the NHL. He got ten games in 2020-21, then he got sent back to the AHL in the beginning of the 2021-22 season before finally cracking the NHL lineup for good. All in all, it took until McLeod’s draft plus four season to become a full-time NHLer.

O’Reilly just finished his draft plus one season, and is slated to go back to junior next season. He will likely need at least one season of AHL development after that. At best, O’Reilly is two years away; but it could easily turn into three. If he’s three years away, that’s the same pace as McLeod. McLeod was the 40th pick in the 2018 draft, and O’Reilly was the 32nd pick in the 2022 draft. Their development paths should be fairly close to each other. McLeod’s development felt slow though. Regardless, O’Reilly was two to three years away from making the NHL roster.

I’m a proponent of having talent coming through the pipeline, even as a contending team in “win now” mode. I was happy to have O’Reilly percolating in the system. The Oilers will need to find more prospects that will be able to contribute on that sort of timeline.

However, it’s not like he was sacrificed for a 35-year old in a purely “win now” move. Howard is only 21 years old. He’s two years older than O’Reilly. Howard has a lot of runway in front of him. I don’t know how much he will help the Oilers in 2025-26, but he’s highly likely to contribute meaningfully beyond next season. The Oilers will have control of Howard for the next six years as he won’t be eligible for unrestricted free agency until he turns 27 barring any unforeseen developments.

O’Reilly is a fine prospect, but Howard has a higher ceiling. Howard is the more talented prospect. That makes this a win for the Oilers. The fact that he is ready for professional hockey (whether it be with the Oilers or the Bakersfield Condors) now is a cherry on top of the cake. 

Essentially, the Oilers turned their 2025 first round pick into Howard, which is a definite win. It doesn’t make up for the organization’s pitiful drafting and development in the first half of this decade, but getting a 2022 first rounder that’s about to begin playing professional hockey is a definite boost to the organization.

The other thing we have to realize about the Howard trade is what it represents in the eyes of McDavid. The team is about to start negotiating an extension with the best player in the world. All McDavid wants is to win. He has said that if it seems like the organization has a plan to win for a long time, then he will not have a problem signing here. That means that the team needs to have a gameplan for being a long-term contender in place. Getting a young piece with the potential that Howard has is one part of that gameplan. Oilers GM Stan Bowman’s willingness to get Howard is a step in the right direction.

Of course, there are no guarantees when we’re talking about young hockey players. Howard isn’t a guarantee to be a top six forward in the NHL, nor is O’Reilly guaranteed to be a third line centre. Howard has the higher ceiling, but O’Reilly could end up having the better career for all we know. Any prospect exchange like this is a gamble, and I like the gamble the Oilers just made on Howard. It would have been great to keep O’Reilly, but I’m also good with not giving up another future draft pick that could be used in a different trade down the road or to further supplement the prospect pool.

Let me be clear in saying that Howard having the ceiling of a top six forward does not necessarily mean that he will hit that ceiling this season. There is obviously a range of outcomes for Howard’s upcoming season that goes from AHL hockey to NHL top six contributor. Vasily Podkolzin played on Draisaitl’s wing for the majority of last season and only scored eight goals. A similar possibility exists for Howard. He could also end up stuck on the fourth line or in the press box because his defensive game might not be up to snuff. Even if Howard ends up in Bakersfield all season, this trade is still a win for the Oilers. This specific trade isn’t ONLY about the here and now. It’s a long-term bet as well, and it’s a smart bet by the Oilers.

Related: 2025 Oilers Free Agent Frenzy Wrap