July 10, 2025 by Ryan Lotsberg

NHL teams retain the rights to players they draft from NCAA teams for four years. That allows them to develop through their years of NCAA eligibility before coming to the NHL. It also gives them time to think about where they want to play professional hockey. If a drafted player decides that they want to play for a different NHL team for whatever reason, they can choose not to sign with the team that drafted them and to wait for their NHL rights to expire. Most times, teams will trade the player to recoup an asset rather than letting them walk away for nothing. It’s a scenario that has played out many times before. 

The latest such case featured 2025 Hobey Baker Award winner Isaac Howard, who would not sign with the Tampa Bay Lightning and was subsequently traded to the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday evening. The 2022 first round pick put up 26 goals and 26 assists for a total of 52 points in 37 games for Michigan State University last season. Howard led the NCAA in points per game (1.41) last season. Howard’s stock rose significantly as a result of his play last season. He’s a highly touted prospect that many people feel is NHL ready. The impact he will have in his rookie season remains to be seen.

Let me show you how some other notable NCAA players that have recently refused to sign with the teams that drafted them fared in their first seasons with their preferred NHL clubs.

Cutter Gauthier was drafted by the Philadelphia Flyers (5th overall in 2022), but was traded to the Anaheim Ducks after refusing to sign with the Flyers. Last season was his first professional season, and he got 44 points in 82 games with the Ducks.

Rutger McGroarty was drafted by the Winnipeg Jets nine picks after Gauthier. He had no interest in playing for the Jets, so they traded him to the Pittsburgh Penguins. McGroarty got three points in eight games before being sent to the Wilkes-Barre /Scranton Penguins of the AHL, where he spent the remainder of the season.

If we wind the clock back a little further, Jimmy Vesey was another example. The 2012 third round pick wouldn’t sign with the Nashville Predators coming out of Harvard University, nor would he sign with the Buffalo Sabres after they traded for his rights. He went to the New York Rangers as a free agent, and he put up 27 points in 80 games as a rookie in 2016-17.

Kevin Hayes also went to the Rangers after not signing with the team that drafted him (the Chicago Blackhawks) after coming out of Harvard. Hayes got 45 points in 79 games for the Rangers as a rookie in 2014-15. He was the 24th overall pick in the 2010 NHL draft, so his draft position is the closest to Howard’s in this group. Hayes put up 65 points in 40 games with Boston College in 2013-14, which trumps what Howard did last year.

Howard was the 31st pick in that same draft class as Gauthier and McGroarty. He has an extra year of development at the college level under his belt compared to those two, which should help his cause as an NHL rookie. It isn’t fair to expect Howard to produce at the same level as a top five pick right away, so I don’t expect Howard to reach Gauthier’s numbers as a rookie. Gauthier basically replicated Hayes’s numbers from his rookie season. As noted above, Hayes had a superior final year of college to Howard; so it stands to reason that Hayes’s rookie NHL season would be superior to Howard’s.

McGroarty represents the worst possible outcome for Howard as a rookie, which wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world because sending Howard to the Bakersfield Condors before he plays his ninth game would save the Oilers from burning a year off his entry-level contract.

Let’s look at how past Hobey Baker Award winners have fared in their first NHL seasons as well:

Hobey Baker Award	Player	1st NHL Season	Points	Games Played
2024	Macklin Celebrini	2024-25	63	70
2023	Adam Fantilli	2023-24	27	49
2022	Dryden McKay	N/A
2021	Cole Caufield	2021-22	43	67
2020	Scott Perunovich	2021-22	6	19
2019	Cale Makar	2019-20	50	57
2018	Adam Gaudette	2018-19	12	56
2017	Will Butcher	2017-18	44	81
2016	Jimmy Vesey	2016-17	27	80
2015	Jack Eichel	2015-16	56	80
2014	Johnny Gaudreau	2014-15	64	80

The only player on this list that got 50 or more points in their first NHL season that wasn’t a top five draft pick was Gaudreau, so Howard should not be expected to get to 50 points. Caufield, the fifteenth overall pick in 2019, was on pace to surpass 50 points based on his 0.64 points per game average in 2021-22. He was breaking American goal scoring records prior to being drafted. Howard has not performed at that level, so it’s not fair to compare him to Caufield either.

Vesey (2012 3rd round) and Adam Gaudette (2015 5th round) had more modest totals in their first NHL seasons. Both Vesey and Gaudette had one season of NCAA hockey where they surpassed Howard’s 2024-25 point total, but Howard was drafted earlier than both of them. Based on this logic, it would be fair to expect somewhere between 27-35 points for Howard in 2025-26.

However, we also have to remember that eight of the nine Hobey Baker Award winners prior to Gaudreau either had no NHL career or had cups of coffee in the NHL. Winning the Hobey Baker Award on its own does not guarantee an NHL career. I would be stunned and shocked if Howard was to not carve out an NHL career of some kind, but stranger things have happened.

Howard is going to write his own story, but all we have at our disposal while trying to guess how a player will fare is historical comparables. The majority of the forwards that I have compared him to here are legitimate top six forwards in the NHL. Howard has a deceptive release and soft hands that allow him to score at will. He can create plays in the offensive zone. He’s got quick burst acceleration and sufficient speed for the NHL. He’s not the biggest guy at 5’11” and 190 lbs, but he isn’t so small that it’s worrisome. Howard is not a physical player and he will need to improve at wall battles based on the scouting reports that I have read. It’s not a stretch to think that Howard can help the Oilers’ top nine, and I can definitely see him getting opportunities with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl as the season wears on. That does not mean that I think he will or should start there, but I’m not going to be upset if he gets that chance right away.

This is a fantastic change of pace for the Oilers organization though. McGroarty chose not to sign with the Canadian team that drafted him. The same goes for Adam Fox, who was drafted by the Calgary Flames before refusing to sign there and choosing the Rangers. The Oilers have been on the wrong end of this scenario a couple of times recently with John Marino and Shane Lachance. Not this time though. This time, the player chose Edmonton. It’s not just any player that made this choice, it’s a player with some brand appeal. It helps when you have the two best players in the world on your side, but Edmonton has become a place where players want to play, which is a wonderful feeling as a fan.

Related: Did the Oilers pay too much for Howard?