Could the Sabres and the Oilers possibly swap goalies?
November 10, 2025
Measures of appeasement rather than accountability
November 12, 2025
November 10, 2025 by Ryan Lotsberg
Saturday night’s 9-1 drubbing at the hands of the Colorado Avalanche was tied for the largest margin of defeat in Edmonton Oilers history. Insert whichever adjective you want and add as much colour as you wish: abysmal, pathetic, pitiful, horrendous, it doesn’t matter. They all fit.
This feels like an opening that I would’ve written during the Decade of Darkness, not in the second month of play after consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances.
The funniest thing about that game was that the Avalanche went 0/7 on the powerplay. They scored nine goals, and not a single one came on one of their SEVEN powerplay opportunities! They scored a shorthanded goal, which means that the Oilers surrendered eight five-on-five goals.
Those eight five-on-five goals allowed saw them plummet from a tie for 26th in the league in five-on-five goal percentage (45.61%) all the way to the deep, dark basement (40%).
This is out of character for the Oilers of recent years. They haven’t been this bad on either side of the puck in many years. Let’s dive in and see if we can figure out why.
Goaltending
I can’t not acknowledge the goaltending. It wasn’t good enough on Saturday night, although the team in front of the goalies didn’t do them any favours either. The chatter from Oilers fans about this goaltending tandem not being good enough has been boisterous over the last few years to say the least, especially now.
I want to acknowledge that Calvin Pickard’s efforts have been fantastic since he was thrust into the backup role unexpectedly in 2023. However, his five-on-five numbers this season make it clear that he has taken a step back:
| Season | SV% | GAA | GSAx/60 |
| 2024-25 | .908 | 2.45 | -0.272 |
| 2025-26 | .853 | 3.44 | -0.839 |
That step he took back is a giant one. Pickard gave the Oilers two great seasons, but this one has not started off well for him at all.
Stuart Skinner has handled the majority of the load, and this is how he has fared this season compared to last season:
| Season | SV% | GAA | GSAx/60 |
| 2024-25 | .901 | 2.48 | -0.101 |
| 2025-26 | .892 | 2.51 | -0.087 |
It should be noted that Skinner’s five-on-five save percentage dropped from .906 to .892 on Saturday after stopping seven of the eleven shots he faced at five-on-five against the Avalanche, and his five-on-five goals against average rose from 2.20 to 2.51 as a result of Saturday’s game. Prior to that game, it was accurate to say that Skinner’s performance had improved in all three of these metrics. Even after Saturday’s meltdown, Skinner’s goals saved above expected rate is still lower than it was last season.
I feel comfortable saying that Skinner has improved his play this season.
Having said that, his improved numbers prior to Saturday’s game were middling among NHL starting goaltenders, and now they’re below average.
The sum of it all is that the Oilers have a five-on-five save percentage of 87.89%, which is second lowest in the league. It was at 89.67% prior to Saturday’s game, which was 24th in the league. I believe that falls more on Pickard’s shoulders than on Skinner’s, but it’s fair to want more from both goaltenders on a team with championship aspirations.
For comparison’s sake, the Oilers’ five-on-five save percentage was 90.33% (23rd) last season, which isn’t much different than it was prior to Saturday’s game. Goaltending doesn’t explain the slide to the bottom of the five-on-five goal share metric so far this season.
Offence
| Season | 5v5 GF (Rank) | 5v5 xGF (Rank) |
| 2021-22 | 181 (10th) | 178.23 (8th) |
| 2022-23 | 191 (T-5th) | 193.5 (6th) |
| 2023-24 | 193 (3rd) | 213.02 (1st) |
| 2024-25 | 168 (T-13th) | 192.77 (2nd) |
| 2025-26 | 26 (T-24th) | 31.05 (20th) |
The Oilers have been a strong five-on-five offensive team going back to the end of the Dave Tippett era. It should be noted that after Jay Woodcroft took over the team in advance of the February 11, 2022 game against the New York Islanders, the Oilers scored the fifth most five-on-five goals (93) and they had the third most expected goals for (87.79).
They continued to climb in Woodcroft’s only full season with the Oilers in 2022-23, but they peaked in current Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch’s first year with the team. When the team’s first thirteen games of that season under Woodcroft were removed, the Oilers scored the second most five-on-five goals in the league (171), and they had the most five-on-five xGF (179.18) by a mile over the next best team (158.72).
The goal scoring dropped off dramatically last season, but their xGF total was still second highest in the league. They were generating chances, but they weren’t converting.
This season, their scoring ranks lower than it did last year, but their xGF is also low. That’s the big concern.
I’ve seen some chatter on X about the idea that Knoblauch has coached the offence out of this team. Let me present some data to you. First, a comparison between the five-on-five offensive output during Woodcroft and Knobaluch’s respective tenures:
| Coach | 5v5 GF (Rank) | 5v5 GF/GP | 5v5 xGF (Rank) | 5v5 xGF/GP |
| Woodcroft (133 GP) | 306 (T-6th) | 2.3 | 317.3 (3rd) | 2.39 |
| Knoblauch (167 GP) | 365 (5th) | 2.19 | 403 (1st) | 2.41 |
| 2025-26 Knoblauch (16 GP) | 26 (T-24th) | 1.6 | 31.05 (20th) | 1.94 |
I included the numbers for this season because the dip is substantial. Prior to this season, Knoblauch’s teams scored at a rate of 2.25 five-on-five goals per game and created 2.46 expected goals per game.
Even with this season’s disastrous five-on-five performance included, the offensive output from these two coaches is close. Based on these numbers, it’s fair to say that Woodcroft’s teams were better at converting on their scoring chances while Knoblauch’s teams have been better at creating scoring chances.
That’s not the case this season though. Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981) suggested that the Oilers are taking too many point shots, which is supported by the HockeyViz heat map shared by TheLineBlender (@TheLineBlender):
The coach might be telling the defencemen to shoot from the point more, but I can’t say that with any level of certainty because I’m not in that room. If the coach is preaching point shots, my questions would be when did Knoblauch start preaching that approach, and why did he start preaching it.
“Put the puck on net and good things happen” is such a cliché, but coaches preach it for a reason. You never know what kind of bounce you’ll get. Long shots have a lower success rate, but they can create havoc near the net. It’s a strategy designed to get greasy goals, which are the kinds of goals that a team needs when it’s struggling to score like the Oilers have been to start this season.
Some people are saying that the team is struggling to score because of an increase in point shots. I would argue that the increase in point shots is a result of not being able to score, not the other way around.
The last time the Hockey Viz graphics looked similar to the 2025-26 version was back in the Tippett era, and excess point shots were a concern then too. There were three forwards that scored above 34 points in 2019-20. In the 2020-21 season, Connor McDavid got 100 points, Leon Draisaitl got 85 points, and the next highest scoring forward (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) got 35 points. It got a little better in Tippett’s final season; but good gravy, those forward groups sucked!
Look at this season’s team. I’ve been saying this a lot lately; but once again, I’ll state that four of the team’s top seven most prolific five-on-five scorers from a goals per sixty perspective are no longer with the organization. Zach Hyman hasn’t played a game yet, so that’s five of the top seven best scorers from last year gone. They have been replaced with two players that would’ve fit on that list of seven last year.
Related: Knoblauch’s reliance on McDavid and Draisaitl
I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest that the reason for the Oilers’ precipitous five-on-five offensive dropoff is due to the lack of quality on the roster this season.
Look at the way their goal scoring versus their expected goals dropped from last season after losing Dylan Holloway, Warren Foegele, and Evander Kane (Kane missed the 2024-25 regular season before being traded this past summer) and replacing them with Jeff Skinner, Viktor Arvidsson, and Vasily Podkolzin.
Now consider what I just wrote about the quality of talent on this season’s roster. There is LESS goal scoring talent on this roster than there was on last year’s team that couldn’t drop a ball into the ocean from the side of a boat.
One trend that is made clear by the chart above is that the Oilers have trouble finishing at a higher rate than expected. The last time they scored more five-on-five goals than they were expected to was in the 2021-22 season. The Oilers need to find a way to get to the middle of the ice and to finish at a higher rate.
Defence
| Season | 5v5 GA (Rank) | 5v5 xGA (Rank) |
| 2021-22 | 173 (19th) | 165.61 (15th) |
| 2022-23 | 168 (17th) | 167.06 (12th) |
| 2023-24 | 153 (T-8th) | 160.18 (9th) |
| 2024-25 | 171 (22nd) | 161.63 (13th) |
| 2025-26 | 39 (30th) | 32.91 (20th) |
Saturday’s debacle saw the Oilers drop from 22nd to 30th in the league in five-on-five goals allowed. The avalanche of goals against (pun intended) on Saturday buried the Oilers near the bottom of the leaderboard, but it wasn’t as if the snow wasn’t deep prior to that game.
Last season, the Oilers allowed 9.37 more goals than they were expected to, which was a problem. This season, they have already allowed 6.09 more goals than expected, and they have only played 20% of the season.
Turnovers leading to goals against has been a theme this season. Evan Bouchard has been a consistent culprit. It’s fair to list him by name here, but it’s not fair to totally single him out as others have committed turnovers that have led directly to goals as well. I would expand this issue even further to include puck management at the bluelines and in the neutral zone. That has been a big issue that needs to improve.
In-zone defending is a big part of it as well. That was on full display Saturday night. The Avalanche were free to attack the slot without pressure from Oilers defencemen. The men in blue weren’t marking their opponents, tying up sticks in prime goal scoring areas, or boxing opponents out in front of their net. Those are basic fundamentals for NHL defencemen, and this group isn’t executing those fundamentals often enough.
Let’s be real though, this defence group is essentially the same as it was last year. Alec Regula is the only new face, and he has only played in four games. The defensive zone system doesn’t appear to be any different than it was last season. They just need to execute better.
Wrap
Even the league’s second ranked powerplay isn’t enough to keep this Oilers team out of trouble. The team’s five-on-five play has been abhorrent, and it obviously needs to improve.
The goaltending needs to improve as well. Peter Aubrey has only been working with these goaltenders for a month of NHL action, so his impact is still taking shape. I have time to watch this evolve with Skinner, but Pickard’s play needs to improve in a hurry.
Here’s what I would say to the blood thirsty Oilers fans that want to see Oilers GM Stan Bowman acquire a better goaltender yesterday. It’s November, and teams rarely make significant trades this early in the season. I don’t think Skinner is going anywhere, and I don’t think there’s a better starting goaltender available right now, especially with the amount of cap space the Oilers have at their disposal (which is essentially none).
I would strongly advocate for looking for a new backup to replace Pickard though. That could be achieved at a cap hit equivalent to or lower than Pickard’s. There was speculation about Nico Daws and Michael DiPietro being options before they cleared waivers in training camp, and both are off to decent starts in the AHL. They have proven their worth at the AHL level and could be solid NHL backups with potential to take over the starter’s position next season or sooner. I would add Sebastian Cossa and Devon Levi to that list as well, although their immediate impact seems like it would be lower than the other two. DiPietro seems like the most likely one to shake loose because the Boston Bruins have Jeremy Swayman locked in for another six years after this one and backup Joonas Korpisalo is signed for two more years after this one.
I would also keep an eye on the Chicago Blackhawks. When Laurent Brossoit returns from injury, they will have three goaltenders on their roster. Arvid Soderblom is 26-years old and having a nice start to his season (.913 SV%, 2.63 GAA), but Spencer Knight is the number one goalie there. Oilers goaltending coach Peter Aubrey worked with him in Chicago and thinks highly of him. Soderblom has a cap hit of $2.75 million for this season and next season. It would take some other moves and playing with fewer than 23 players on the active roster to get his number under the cap, but it could be done.
In case you’re wondering, Connor Ingam has an .848 SV% and a 4.05 GAA in four appearances for the Bakersfield Condors so far this season. He hasn’t been able to earn the number one role over Matt Tomkins in Bakersfield yet, so I don’t think he will take over the starting job for the Oilers any time soon.
Offensively, the imminent return of Zach Hyman will help, but it won’t cure all the team’s ills. They simply need more talent, and the talent they have needs to be more impactful, including the team’s superstars. Ultimately, this forward group doesn’t match the level of Oilers groups of the recent past. My opinion could change with significant steps forward from Matt Savoie and Ike Howard, and I think those steps will eventually come; but not likely this season.
Four of the new forwards (Savoie, Howard, Noah Philp, and David Tomasek) combined for twenty NHL games before this season. Perhaps having four players gathering NHL experience at the same time is a bit much. I assume at least one of them will be sent down to the Bakersfield Condors this week when Hyman and Mattias Janmark get activated. Perhaps two or three of them will be out of the lineup by the time Kasperi Kapanen comes back in early December.
The defence group is essentially the same as it was last season. They just need to figure it out, plain and simple.
Everyone has some role to play in the poor start for the Oilers, but I don’t lay a significant portion of the blame in the coach’s hands. I believe this roster is just significantly worse than people imagined it would be.
We also have to consider the team’s difficult travel schedule to start the season, which is only going to get worse starting this coming week as the team embarks on a seven-game Eastern road trip.
