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As exciting as the announcement of any Olympic team roster is, there’s always a level of disappointment and frustration with certain picks. It’s no different with the Canadian men’s Olympic hockey team roster that was announced on Wednesday.
Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, Sam Reinhart, and Cale Makar were selected to the roster several months ago. The surprises lied with the other nineteen selections.
As fun as the 4 Nations tournament was, it definitely ruined a lot of the surprise element of the Olympic team roster reveal. Only six new faces that didn’t represent Canada at that tournament are on this team, two of which are goaltenders.
All the defencemen on Team Canada were at the 4 Nations tournament. Thomas Harley was a late addition as a result of Makar being ill. Harley played well in the 4 Nations tournament, but I personally don’t think he belongs in this elite group. His fourteen points in 27 games puts him in thirteenth in points per game among Canadian defencemen this season, so he’s not there for his offensive abilities. His five-on-five expected goal percentage is only 45.11% this season, and his actual five-on-five goal share isn’t much higher (48.78%), so he’s not there for his defensive shutdown ability. There are several other defencemen on this roster that kill penalties more often and more effectively than Harley does. I see no evidence to suggest that he should be on this team aside from the fact that he played two games in the 4 Nations tournament.
I don’t see how Evan Bouchard was left off this roster for Harley. Bouchard is the second highest scoring Canadian defenceman this season, and he’s known for his fantastic puck moving ability. That’s a key element with the small, fast, and skilled forward group that Team Canada has. He’s a much better defender than he’s given credit for being, and his underlying numbers without McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are basically the same as they are with the Oilers superstars. Bouchard has had his issues with turnovers, but his being the third highest scorer in the last three playoffs regardless of position is a sign that he shows up when it matters. If he was to start serving up hot and fresh turnovers in Milan, then he could’ve been benched. Instead, Team Canada will miss out on the elite puck moving ability of Bouchard.
I think that Matthew Schaefer is an electrifying talent, but I don’t think he’s quite at the level needed to make Team Canada yet. He’ll be a big part of it in 2030.
Speaking of players that were snubbed from this team that will be key contributors in 2030, Connor Bedard is the most notable snub from this team. The Canadian World Junior tournament scoring record holder has 44 points in 31 games in a breakout NHL season. His shoulder injury is an issue that apparently didn’t play much of a role in the decision to leave him off the roster. I don’t understand how his incredible release and finishing ability aren’t enough to get him onto this roster. Maybe his size held him back? I’m not sure. I don’t know what more Bedard could’ve done to earn a roster spot.
Tampa Bay Lightning head coach John Cooper is the coach of the Canadian team. His influence on the selection process was made clear with the selections of Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli. Both were on the 4 Nations team as well. I’m not surprised that these two players were selected for those reasons.
I don’t have much of a problem with Hagel being on the team. He was in a group of four players that I was considering for one of the last spots on my version of this roster. I chose Sam Bennett instead, but Hagel isn’t an offensive choice. It’s funny that the reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner won’t be at the Olympics, but Bennett’s play has dropped off this season. Past success doesn’t always indicate future success. Bennett found lightning in a bottle for two months, but he’s not a player that many people would predict as being a Conn Smythe Trophy finalist in any playoff year. He was effective at the 4 Nations tournament, and I think he would’ve been fine at the Olympics; but I’m not all that upset that he isn’t there.
Cirelli is the selection that bothers me most. 22 points in 35 games isn’t bad, but it’s not better than several Canadian forwards that were left off this roster. Cirelli ranks third in the NHL in four-on-five ice time per game among forwards with at least twenty such minutes this season, so we know that Cooper trusts him. However, Cirelli ranks 135th in high danger chances against per 60. That performance doesn’t match his usage. There are nine other forwards that get regular penalty killing time on this team. Cirelli’s roster spot should’ve been used for a more prolific point producer.
If not Bedard, then Mark Scheifele is the one that comes to mind for me. He ranks seventh among Canadian forwards in total points since the 4 Nations tournament and fifth in the last two seasons. He’s well rounded enough to succeed on a checking line in the Olympics in my opinion. Scheifele has had a five-on-five goal share above 60% in each of the last three seasons, and his xGF% has been above 56% in each of those seasons as well. That’s a high level of play over a long sample size. That should’ve been enough to earn him a spot on this team.
For all the Oilers fans that I know will read this, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins would’ve been a great choice over Cirelli as well. He can contribute in all facets of the game, and he would’ve been a good fallback option on McDavid’s wing. The same can be said of Zach Hyman. I think that there were just too many right-handed options in the mix for Canada. Unfortunately, Hyman just didn’t have the same time to dazzle the management team that others did because of his injury. Hyman made an late push and proved that he belonged in this conversation, but he didn’t get picked. I wouldn’t have been upset if he had been picked, but I also feel there were other players that would be good fits above Cirelli on the roster too.
I’m happy to see Nick Suzuki, who has had more points than Scheifele over the last two seasons and since the 4 Nations tournament, get a spot on this team. I also feel that Bo Horvat was a nice pick. He has twenty goals already this season, he kills penalties, and he’s a strong faceoff man.
The final controversial but expected selection came in goal. Jordan Binnington won the 4 Nations tournament and has won a Stanley Cup for Team Canada and St. Louis Blues GM Doug Armstrong. Binnington was always a lock for this roster, but his play this season says that he should be far away from Milan in February. Binnington will likely be the starter, but my hope is that his leash is short and that one of Logan Thompson or Darcy Kuemper gets the net.
This is still a tremendous roster that should be on the short list of favourites to win the gold medal if it isn’t the favourite; but as always, it could’ve been even better. I don’t agree with all of the selections, but I’ll obviously still be cheering for Canada to win gold.
Happy New Year everyone!
