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March 28, 2026 by Ryan Lotsberg
People in the Edmonton media are campaigning for Edmonton Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard to be considered for the Norris Trophy. As Bob Stauffer put so eloquently in a post on X, Bouchard’s offensive production has made him the most dominant defenceman in the league since November 9, 2025.
Bouchard faces several hurdles in his pursuit of the Norris Trophy. He had a tough start to the season, as did the Oilers. That November 9 date was used as a starting point for Stauffer’s post for a reason.
If we’re penalizing heavily for one tough month at the start of the season, then Nikita Kucherov shouldn’t win the Hart Trophy either. Kucherov had fourteen points in his first sixteen games of the season, which is a slow pace by his standards. Since November 15, 2025, Kucherov has 107 points in 51 games. He’s had a historic run since November 15, and he’s the frontrunner for the Hart Trophy. Why should Bouchard be treated any differently in the Norris Trophy conversation?
Bouchard also faces the hurdle of his reputation. When people talk about Bouchard, they talk about his mistakes. He has a propensity for making glaring mistakes such as turnovers in inopportune positions. Well, I hate to break it to you, but Cale Makar makes mistakes as well. All elite defencemen turn the puck over, and all elite defencemen make bad reads sometimes.
This information from SportLogiq (presented by our own @dashinthepark) shows the turnover rates and how often they lead to goals for Bouchard, Makar, and Zach Werenski (who is having a season worthy of Norris consideration as well).
We’re splitting hairs by comparing how many goals have come off each one’s turnovers as they’re only separated by two goals. Bouchard’s turnover rate is slightly higher than Makar’s, but Werenski’s is higher than both. Bouchard’s turnovers have led to more scoring chances than the other two have.
Consider this though: Bouchard has had the lowest percentage of his turnover related scoring chances against turn into goals of the three. That makes me wonder which of the three is actually giving up the highest quality chances as a result of their turnovers, because it isn’t Bouchard. That would be Makar, who has had the most goals against as a result of his turnovers on the fewest scoring chances allowed in this group.
Getting a save from your goalie helps when such a turnover is made. Here are the on-ice save percentages in all strengths for these three players:
Makar – 90.28%
Werenski – 88.36%
Bouchard – 87.18%
Bouchard is getting the worst goaltending, and he has the lowest percentage of turnover related scoring chances resulting in goals of the three. That makes me think the narrative of Bouchard being a liability because of his turnovers is a bit unfair. It also makes Makar’s numbers in this analysis stand out as being worse than the others because he’s getting the best goaltending and his turnovers have resulted in the most goals against out of the three.
Another hurdle that Bouchard has to clear is the fact that Makar and Werenski were selected to represent their respective countries at the recent Olympics, and he was not. I think that was an awful oversight by the Canadian management team. I felt that way before the tournament, and I felt that way after watching Canada struggle to move the puck up ice throughout the medal round. Whether it was on oversight or not, it will be a major strike against Bouchard in the Norris Trophy discussion.
Bouchard is largely in the conversation because he leads NHL defencemen in points. The highest scoring defenceman in the NHL has won the Norris Trophy the last three years, but has only won 34 out of the 63 Norris Trophies awarded. The award goes to the best defenceman, not the highest scoring defenceman.
If we want to use a statistic based on recent precedent to predict who will win the Norris Trophy, it’s plus/minus. I FULLY understand how flawed the plus/minus stat is. I made that claim based on recent precedent, not based on a philosophical perspective. I analyzed data from NHL.com on the last ten Norris Trophy winners.
Makar won the award last season while leading the scoring race for defencemen, but he also had the highest plus/minus among the scoring leaders (+28). The same goes for Quinn Hughes in 2023-24 (+38). Erik Karlsson’s Norris Trophy win in 2023 is an outlier. He got 101 points and won the scoring race by 25 points, but his plus/minus was -26.
Before that three-year streak, there was a run of five consecutive seasons where the highest scoring defenceman didn’t win the Norris Trophy. Roman Josi led the scoring race in 2021-22, but Makar won the Norris. Makar was +48 compared to Josi’s +13. Tyson Barrie led the scoring race in 2020-21, but Adam Fox won the Norris. Fox was +19, and Barrie was +4. Josi (+22) won the Norris in 2019-20 despite John Carlson (+12) winning the scoring race. Mark Giordano won it in 2018-19 on the strength of his +39 rating, even though Brent Burns won the scoring race. Carlson was outdone in plus/minus despite winning the scoring race in 2017-18. Carlson was even, and Norris winner Victor Hedman was +32.
Bouchard sits atop the scoring race, but his plus/minus is +21 entering play Saturday. Werenski, who sits second in the scoring race, is at +12. Makar’s plus/minus is +31 while sitting third in the scoring race. Makar is +32 at five-on-five (64.55%). That’s why Makar will likely win the Norris again in 2025-26.
I thought it would be interesting to analyze how Bouchard, Makar, and Werenski have fared against elite comptetition using PuckIQ’s data. Here’s a chart with pertinent stats against elites:
| Player | % TOI vs Elites | DFF% vs Elites | GF% vs Elites | On-ice SV% vs Elites | PDO |
| Makar | 37.1% | 50.4% | 64.3% (27-15) | 93.3% | 1042 |
| Bouchard | 37.5% | 55% | 63.8% (30-17) | 92.2% | 1032 |
| Werenski | 38.5% | 51.8% | 60% (24-16) | 93.4% | 1026 |
Werenski has the highest usage rate against elite players, but the lowest goal share and the highest on-ice save percentage. This doesn’t really help Werenski’s case.
Makar plays the least against elites of the three, but he has the highest goal share of the group. That only strengthens his argument. However, if we go a bit deeper, we see that he also has the highest on-ice save percentage ans the highest PDO. He’s getting the most help of the three.
Bouchard’s 55% DFF% jumps out as the only significant lead for any of the three players in any category. His goal share is a shade below Makar’s with less help from the goaltending and from PDO. This strenghtens Bouchard’s case, but I don’t think it’s enough to overcome the plus/minus and five-on-five goal share factors.
Bouchard has become a big part of the Oilers penalty kill this season, which has played a role in the step forward that he has taken this year. Makar plays ten seconds more per game on the penalty kill than Bouchard does, and he has lower goals against/60 and scoring chances against/60 rates on the penalty kill than Bouchard does. If anyone was thinking that his new penalty killing duties would give Bouchard an edge in the Norris conversation, that’s just not the case.
Bouchard deserves a nomination for the Norris Trophy. One could craft arguments to debunk the narratives that surround Bouchard, but the weight of how plus/minus clearly factors into Norris Trophy voting will give Makar his second consecutive Norris Trophy this season.
