June 16, 2026 by Ryan Lotsberg

An early exit for the Edmonton Oilers has given management a lot of time to assess and plan their moves for the coming summer, which figures to carry a tremendous amount of weight given the circumstances in Edmonton. 

The Oilers offseason has already been a circus. Kris Knoblauch was fired days after news regarding the Vegas Golden Knights not allowing the Oilers to interview Bruce Cassidy for their head coaching position. The ongoing investigation into Mike Babcock’s behaviour while with the Columbus Blue Jackets before the 2023-24 season started as a result of the Oilers declaring their intention to hire him. 

The coaching situation is still being resolved, but the time to focus on roster moves is here. I always like to break the cap situation down before I start playing armchair GM and deciding on players I would like to target, and that’s what I’ll do here. PuckPedia is an incredible resource, but the offseason rosters posted there and on other cap sites typically have different players on it. For example, PuckPedia’s 2026-27 Oilers roster currently has Connor Clattenburg on it, and CapWages’s Oilers roster does not. I’ll share my 2026-27 Oilers roster projection based on the contracts that are currently signed and that I think have a reasonable chance of making the roster:

Savoie ($886,666)	McDavid ($12.5M)	Hyman ($5.5M)
Podkolzin ($2.95M)	Draisaitl ($14M)	2RW
Frederic ($3.85M)	Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125M)	3RW
Dach (RFA)	Samanski ($975k)	Janmark ($1.45M)
13F	*Howard ($972,500)

Ekholm ($4M)	Bouchard ($10.5M)
Walman ($7M)	2RD
3LD	Emberson ($1.3M)
Stastney (RFA)	*Nurse ($9.25M)

Jarry ($5.375M)

2G

Player Total: $85,634,166 

Total: $88,484,166

Cap Space: $15,515,834

I put an asterisk next to Darnell Nurse’s name because he recently agreed to waive his no-movement clause to facilitate a trade away from the Oilers. We obviously don’t know what the return will be or how much of Nurse’s salary will be retained if any at all. Add Nurse’s $9.25 million cap hit to the $15,515,834 figure noted above to create a top end for the range of cap space the Oilers will have available to them this summer ($24,765,834).

The Oilers will have some cap space to play with for the first time in many, many years. They will need to use it wisely though.

Let’s address the RFAs that ended last season on the roster first, Colton Dach and Spencer Stastney. My assumption is that the Oilers will re-sign Dach, and I don’t believe he will get much more than the $825k AAV he had on his last contract. AFP Analytics projects Dach’s next deal to be a two-year deal with an AAV of $1,174,583.05. I think that’s a bit rich, but not too far off. I would be comfortable going up to a $1 million AAV.

AFP projects Stastney’s next contract to be a two-year deal with a $2,286,266.67 AAV. That’s a lot for a player coming off his first full NHL season at the age of 26. Stastney played 66 games split between the Oilers and the Nashville Predators last season. He registered two goals and ten points in those 66 games. Stastney had carved out a bottom pairing role for himself with the Predators before coming to the Oilers where he found himself seventh on the depth chart when the lineup was at full health. He had a 13-13 five-on-five goal share on a 55.3% expected goals percentage with the Predators, but fell to 14-22 (38.89%) on a 46.93% xGF% with the Oilers. That’s not a player I would give nearly $2.3 million to, especially not on a multi-year deal. I would trade him before I would give him $2.3 million. Stastney is an RFA that is arbitration eligible, so we’ll see where this lands. 

Assuming they use a typical roster configuration with fourteen forwards, seven defencemen, and two goalies, the Oilers would need to add the following after signing Dach:

Forwards

The Oilers had far too many fourth line forwards in their lineup last season. That can’t be the case again going forward. They need to find a way to build a functional complementary third line that can contribute with some offence and minimize goals against. They need a solid third line centre for that to happen.

I’m sure Oilers GM Stan Bowman would be interested in bringing Jason Dickinson back, but I still feel that having Dickinson as a 3C eating some tough minutes against elite competition is a losing strategy. If Dickinson’s ask is $5 million per year as some reports have suggested, then the Oilers need to stay far, far away from him. His AFP projection is just over $5 million for four years. No thank you.

Bowman indicated that he saw Trent Frederic in a different role than what Knoblauch had him in last season. Frederic started the season on the top line with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but that was always a mistake. Frederic was either on the fourth line or in the press box for most of the season. If I was to wager a guess, Bowman sees Frederic as a third line player. I can absolutely foresee Frederic being on the third line next season and I put him there in the projection I shared above. If I was building the roster, Frederic would either be traded or on the fourth line, but I’m not in charge. I’m in charge of this piece though, so I’m aiming higher for my third line.

The Oilers might already have a quality 3C in house in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Using Nugent-Hopkins as the 3C would mean needing to add another top six winger. I think that route would improve the forward group more than keeping Nugent-Hopkins in the top six and adding an external third line centre. There’s also a scenario where Nugent-Hopkins would get moved to the left wing of the third line, but that would mean adding an external 3C. The options for external 3Cs this summer are limited in my opinion, but there are options that could be available.

I see two internal pending UFA middle six options in Jack Roslovic and Kasperi Kapanen. If the Oilers truly want to upgrade, they can only bring one of them back at most. 

Roslovic needs to be in a complementary top six role to succeed. I don’t see him as a viable third line option because he lacks the defensive and checking skillsets needed for that role. I honestly think the Oilers should be aiming higher than Roslovic for that complementary top six spot. This isn’t meant to be a slam against Roslovic, but I just think the Oilers can do better.

I would choose Kapanen over Roslovic. He’s got speed, skill, and chemistry to play with Leon Draisaitl if needed, but I wouldn’t build the team around that duo. I would pencil Kapanen in on a third line with Nugent-Hopkins. Those two have the ability to score, and Kapanen would bring some physicality to that line. Kapanen’s AFP projection is a three-year deal with a $3,109,600 AAV. I wouldn’t hesitate to do that deal.

The most likely scenario right now is a third line that looks like this:

Frederic – Nugent-Hopkins – Kapanen

It could work, but I would still like to upgrade over Frederic in that spot.

Ike Howard is a possibility for that spot, but I’m not certain he will be around in September (hence the asterisk by his name). The Oilers need to add a top six winger. Adding a legitimate top six forward will likely involve sacrificing Howard in a trade, which would open up another roster spot in the top nine based on my projection. Howard has potential, but I fear that his talent won’t be enough to counteract his lack of polish away from the puck. He improved in that aspect of the game in Bakersfield last season, but I’m not convinced on this player yet. I don’t see him anywhere but a top six role in the NHL, and I don’t think he’s at that level yet. If his potential has value, it makes some sense to include Howard in a trade; but Howard should only be traded as part of a package for an impactful player that will be a significant contributor for a long time.

As for the final depth spot, I would be quite willing to bring Curtis Lazar back. The Oilers had a great record when he was in the lineup. He does everything you would want a depth checking centre to do: he’s fast, he can win faceoffs, he can play physically, and he can kill penalties. His being a right-hand shot is a bonus. One year at $850k as projected by AFP would be palatable.

If Mattias Janmark’s shoulder injury will be a long-term issue, then the Oilers would need to add another depth forward. I’m stealing this idea from Kevin McCurdy, but bringing back Adam Henrique on a cheap deal as a depth penalty killing specialist wouldn’t be an awful idea. Neither would bringing Max Jones back to run around and bring some energy for 30 games. Regardless of who it is, a 14F position should be easy to fill for $1 million or less.

Defence

The Oilers defence is about to go through a renovation because Nurse is going to be moved this summer. Say what you want about him, but the fact is that he has led Oilers defencemen in five-on-five minutes per game in every season but one since 2017-18. That’s not an easy player to replace.

Related: Deep Dive: Should the Oilers move on from Nurse?

I don’t think Nurse will be directly replaced by another left shot top four defenceman. Nurse is expendable because Jake Walman and Mattias Ekholm are suitable top four defencemen. More will certainly be asked of Walman. Ekholm could also be asked for a bit more at five-on-five; but at 36 years old, his increasing goals against rate could preface the Oilers asking for a little less of him and even more of Walman.

The Oilers will have to ask themselves how they want to build their defence because in reality, the Oilers are essentially looking at life without their second pairing of Nurse and Connor Murphy, which happened to be the Oilers’ best pairing in their first round playoff series this spring.

Will they keep their long standing top pairing of Ekholm and Evan Bouchard together despite their continually rising goals against rate, or will they plan to move forward with Walman beside Bouchard on the top pairing? Another way to phrase that question is do they want to build a second pairing around Walman or Ekholm?

Before they answer that question, they need to decide whether they want to create a second pairing that excels at puck movement to support Leon Draisaitl the way that Connor McDavid is supported by Bouchard’s pairing, or if they want to build a shutdown pairing. On one side of the coin, the Oilers could do better in delivering a supporting cast for Draisaitl and creating a second dominant five-on-five unit that can excel the way the top unit with McDavid and Bouchard has over the last few years. On the other side of the coin, the Oilers can score enough, but they struggle to keep the puck out of their net.

Murphy could be re-signed by the Oilers if they want to go the shutdown route. He was excellent in his short time with the Oilers. The AFP projection for Murphy is a two-year deal at $3,610,100 per year, which is reasonable in my opinion. 

One of my objections would be that Murphy is 33 years old and the last thing this team needs to be is older. The other objection is that if you trade Nurse, re-sign Murphy, and add a cheaper third pairing defenceman on the left side, then the defence group will have gotten worse as a whole. The Oilers can’t afford another step back right now.

I would be looking for a younger right-handed second pairing defenceman. I’d prefer to find one that can move the puck and that isn’t a complete liability in his own zone rather than going with a pure shutdown defender. I think it would make more sense to add a cheaper left-handed shut down defender to put with Ty Emberson on the third pairing.

That leads me into the 3LD spot. Whoever that player is needs to bring tremendous value because the Oilers can’t allocate a large chunk of their salary cap to that position again if they want to improve at other positions. I would be happy with a player that simply won’t hurt the Oilers by being on the ice. I don’t want to notice this player on the ice. I just want him to defend hard and be on a reasonable cap hit.

Goaltending

Tristan Jarry was a disappointing pickup to say the least, and the Oilers have him under contract for two more years. I personally think that Bowman needs to find a way to get rid of that contract and bring in a different starting goaltender, but I don’t believe that will happen.

There’s a backup spot to be filled though. Aside from Sergei Bobrovsky (who would be too expensive for the Oilers), there aren’t any UFA goalies that are locks to give the Oilers more than what they got from Connor Ingram last season. Potentially Frederik Andersen if he decides to leave the Hurricanes after rookie Brandon Bussi took the reins from Andersen in the Stanley Cup Final; but the 36-year old has a consistent track record of injury issues, including a knee issue that knocked him out of the Stanley Cup Final. Beyond those two names, take your pick and see where the lotto balls land because the rest of the names on the list all seem about the same.

I’m not all that excited about any of the free agent goalies out there. I realize the majority of fans in Edmonton aren’t thinking beyond this season, but I’m always thinking about the future in addition to trying to win now. We also just watched a rookie goaltender enter the Stanley Cup Final mid-series and turn the series in favour of the Carolina Hurricanes. Bussi became the fastest goalie to reach ten and twenty regular season NHL wins this season, and he came up clutch on the biggest stage in hockey. The Hurricanes have now won two Stanley Cups with rookie goalies in the crease. Cam Ward beat the Oilers in the 2006 Stanley Cup Final. We have also watched Matt Murray and Jordan Binnington win the Stanley Cup as rookies in the last eleven years. Don’t tell me that young goaltenders can’t win.

The Oilers have been linked to Sebastian Cossa for a while now, and I would be all in on landing him. He’s NHL ready after three steady and reliable AHL seasons. This past season was Cossa’s fourth professional season. You know who else had four professional seasons under his belt before earning an NHL spot? Bussi. The Oilers dearly need to find long-term stability in the crease, and Cossa has more potential to deliver that than any of the veteran goaltenders that are available. If Jarry can find a fraction of the game he once had, he could be just the right goalie to insulate Cossa until Cossa is ready to be a prime time starter. That likely won’t be this coming season; but as noted above, I wouldn’t rule anything out.

Wrap

The Oilers have to create a third line that can contribute meaningfully on both sides of the ice, rebuild their second pairing from scratch, and add a strong backup goaltender. They also need to add another top six winger. The Oilers will have anywhere from $15,515,834 to $24,765,834 to make all of that happen.

If Dach, Kapanen, and Lazar get signed at the projections cited by AFP, they would cost the Oilers $5,134,183 against the cap. That would leave $10,381,651 in cap space available before a Nurse trade.

That would not be enough for a legitimate top six forward AND a top four defenceman nor a 3LD and a backup goaltender on top of them. If Bowman can move Nurse’s entire contract, all things become possible.

Having cap space is one thing, but having the assets to make all of that happen is another. I’ll dive into my players of interest in a later piece, but the free agent market is quite thin and I anticipate some contracts getting moved around this summer because of the league salary cap jump. The Oilers don’t have a lot of valuable expendable assets, so they likely aren’t going to be able to make four significant trades. The return they get for Nurse might solve that problem in part.

My point here is the Oilers might not be able to address ALL of their needs this offseason. That concept won’t sit well with many impatient and panicked Oilers fans that are convinced that Connor McDavid will leave if they don’t win a Stanley Cup next season. I’m not in that camp. If you recall, McDavid signed his latest extension in September 2025, a full summer after he became eligible to sign an extension. McDavid will be eligible to sign an extension as of July 1, 2027. He could easily decide to extend in September 2027 after seeing how the roster takes shape that summer. That gives the Oilers two offseasons to get the ship pointed in the right direction. Even if you believe that the Oilers have one season to get it right, two offseasons of roster movement still lie in front of us before the second season begins. It doesn’t all have to happen right this second.

My personal belief is that McDavid isn’t going to leave though. I don’t believe his decision is contingent upon winning a Stanley Cup this season. Bowman needs to do enough to extend the championship window and show McDavid evidence that the team can be competitive for the duration of a potential long-term extension. The only way I see McDavid leaving is if the team wastes assets on older players and they end up missing the playoffs next season.

We all know Bowman will try to address every need on the list though. I’ll evaluate the possibilities for potential additions over the coming days, so keep your eyes open for that.