June 21, 2026 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Edmonton Oilers announced that they signed Jason Dickinson to a five-year contract with an average annual value of $4 million on Sunday.

BIG JASON ENERGY 🔋

The #Oilers have signed forward Jason Dickinson to a five-year contract with an AAV of $4.0 million. pic.twitter.com/HF5yMk4QLw

— Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) June 21, 2026

Dickinson was acquired by Oilers GM Stan Bowman along with Colton Dach in exchange for Andrew Mangiapane and a conditional 2027 first round pick prior to the 2026 trade deadline. The Blackhawks retained 50% of Dickinson’s salary in that trade. Dickinson got four points in seventeen games for the Oilers down the stretch. He had a strong playoff performance with two goals and an assist in four games while playing on a broken foot.

The expectation is that Dickinson will play a shut down role on a third line and take some heavy minutes away from Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Dickinson is an elite level defender and a tremendous penalty killer, but he simply does not produce enough offence to make me think he’s anything more than a fourth line centre.

This contract is widely being celebrated by Oilers fans. Honestly, I’m having a lot of trouble seeing any reason for celebration here. I think this is a terrible contract, and I think the expected role for Dickinson is a misguided strategy. I’m astounded that so many people think this is a good to great signing. My comments section on X is taking a beating today, but I fully stand by my thoughts about this being a brutal contract and I’ll break them down further in this piece.

Offence

It’s not enough for me to just say that Dickinson can’t score or provide offence at a third line level, so let’s go through the data. Dickinson won’t get powerplay time, so I’ll focus specifically on five-on-five play.

I’ll analyze 5v5 points per 60 minutes rates to remove games played as a variable. My search query on Natural Stat Trick was for forwards that played at least 500 5v5 minutes in the specific season at hand. That search yielded exactly 384 forwards for the 2025-26 season, which equates to 32 groups of twelve forwards. For reference, the top 288 ranked players in this metric would qualify as third line producers at minimum in a 32-team league (32 x 9 = 288). This is how Dickinson has ranked in each season since the first season he played at least 500 5v5 minutes (2018-19):

Dickinson’s 5v5 points/60 rates placed him as a third liner in the three seasons he played over 500 5v5 minutes for the Dallas Stars. Dickinson was used in a fourth line role with the Stars in 2018-19 and in 2019-20. He was fifth among Dallas centres in 5v5 time on ice and seventh in 5v5 TOI/G in 2018-19, and he was fourth in both categories in 2019-20. 

According to Puck IQ, his ice time vs elite competition dropped in each successive season with the Stars. It went from 252.5 minutes and a fairly even spread (33.5% vs elites) in 2018-19 to 217.7 minutes and 27.9% of his TOI vs elites in 2019-20. It dropped to 170.2 minutes and 25.1% of his TOI vs elites in 2020-21.

His 5v5 points per 60 rate dropped as his role increased, and it dropped drastically when he got a third line role with the Stars in 2020-21. The numbers say that he BARELY produced at a third line rate that season.

Ever since then, he has had one season where his production qualified as third line production. That was in 2023-24. 1.59 5v5 points per 60 leaps off the page as an outlier from 2020-21 onwards.

Raw totals matter too, so let’s look at his total 5v5 points from 2018-19 onwards. Dickinson has only played more than 67 games twice in his career. That includes two COVID shortened seasons, but his last two seasons have not been full, nor was his 2021-22 season. I’ll prorate his 5v5 point totals to reflect full 82 games seasons.

Dickinson finished with 35 total points in 2023-24. 28 of those were 5v5 points, which is a career-high by a landslide. Dickinson’s 2023-24 point total was boosted by three four-on-four points and two powerplay points. He was second among Chicago Blackhawks centres in 5v5 TOI and third in TOI/G (Connor Bedard played fewer games than Dickinson). He did that as a 3C. Doing it once does not mean that a player should be expected to produce at that level all the time though.

Dickinson got 30 total points in 2022-23, but that total was aided by four shorthanded points, a 4v4 point, and a powerplay point. As noted above, his 5v5 points/60 rate was tied for 326th among forwards that played at least 500 minutes that season.

Anyone thinking that Dickinson will get 25 5v5 points in any future season will be disappointed. He has eclipsed that mark once in his career. Any amount over twenty 5v5 points will be a fine season from him. Given that he was on pace for eighteen 5v5 points in his 29 and 30 year old seasons, I don’t think we should expect more than twenty even strength points from Dickinson in any season during this contract. 

I think the Oilers should be trying to create a third line that can produce more than that. If Dickinson can push towards his career-high of 28 5v5 points consistently over the length of the contract, then I’ll eat my words. Having done it once in eight seasons doesn’t make me think he can do it again let alone consistently. Having a few seasons where his 5v5 points per 60 rate ranked him as a low end third liner early in his career is not enough to suggest he can produce offence at a third line level.

Dickinson is about to turn 31 years old. NHL players typically peak in their mid 20s. Some can maintain near peak levels of performance into their early 30s, but not all of them do. It’s safe to say that Dickinson’s peak is behind him. We should not expect his offensive production to recover. It is what it is at this point. It has already begun to decline, and we should only expect it to decline further over the length of the contract. I expect it to continue falling this coming season.

This, my friends, is a player that produces offence at a fourth line level, and it will only get worse from here.

5v5 Goal Share

The argument for Dickinson being a 3C is that he’s an elite defensive centre, which counteracts his low offensive production. That’s wonderful and I’m not arguing that he isn’t an elite defensive centre. Ultimately, what matters is his impact on actual 5v5 goal share (GF%).

Dickinson got 48.4% of his 5v5 ice time vs elite competition with the Chicago Blackhawks last season. That was one of the highest such percentages in the entire league. He was outscored 6-10 (37.5%) against elite competition with the Blackhawks last season, and he had a dangerous Fenwick for percentage (DFF%) of 40.9%. The Blackhawks didn’t have the roster quality to use Dickinson any differently, but I have no other word to describe that usage other than “stupid”. The results speak for themselves.

His usage against elite competition dropped to 35.6% with the Oilers last season. He was outscored 0-3. I expect Dickinson’s usage against elites to drop even further in the coming season because Draisaitl was out for most of Dickinson’s regular season games with the Oilers last season. It had better drop because a 31.9% dangerous Fenwick for percentage (DFF%) against elites and getting outscored 0-3 isn’t acceptable for anyone let alone a player you spent a first round pick on and subsequently signed to a five year, $20 million contract.

Dickinson has been outscored 54-79 against elites since 2018-19. That’s a 40.6% GF% rate! He has outscored elite competition twice in the eight year sample since 2018-19. One time was two years ago, and the other was in 2019-20. He has been at exactly 50% versus elite competition twice in this sample: in 2018-19 and in 2021-22. 

Dickinson should be as far away from elite competition as possible. The expectation of him taking heavy minutes away from McDavid and Draisaitl is absurd. I promise that the Oilers will lose those heavy minutes given to Dickinson, thus rendering the strategy pointless. That strategy is an enormous mistake waiting to happen.

His overall 5v5 GF% against gritensity level competition (41.99%) isn’t much better. To be fair, that figure is hindered by a DISASTROUS 2022-23 season where he was outscored 11-33 (!) by gritensity level competition. With that season removed, Dickinson has been outscored 65-72 (47.44%) by gritensity level competition since 2018-19. That still doesn’t inspire much hope in me.

The only glimmer of hope that I have that this contract could work out is that Dickinson’s 5v5 GF% against mid level competition since 2018-19 is 53.13%. He outscored mid level competition 3-1 with the Oilers last season. If “middle” level competition is middle six forwards, then the idea of using Dickinson on a third line with limited ice time might work. His usage needs to be right for this to work. I’m not confident that his usage will be right.

Once again, Dickinson’s expected role as I understand it will be to shut things down on a third line and to take some heavy minutes against elite competition away from McDavid and Draisaitl. This expected role for Dickinson is absolutely idiotic. If Dickinson is getting $4 million per season with the expectation that he will shut down the opponent’s best players for any amount of time, then the contract is preposterous.

DFF%

DFF% analyzes unblocked shot attempts from dangerous scoring areas. PuckIQ’s data says that Dickinson has only been above 50% in DFF% against any level of competition in one season since 2021-22, which happened to be this past season. It was 50.5% vs mid level competition with the Blackhawks and 56% in a fourteen game sample with the Oilers this past season. It was 50.1% against gritensity competition with the Blackhawks. Aside from that, Dickinson’s DFF% has been ATROCIOUS since leaving his fourth line role with the Dallas Stars after the 2020-21 season.

That tracks with Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals percentage data for Dickinson. Dickinson’s xGF% was 46.6% with the Blackhawks last season and 47.43% with the Oilers. Those were his two HIGHEST xGF% since he left the Stars after the 2020-21 season. His performance in this metric has been beyond poor throughout his career.

Basically, the data shows that Dickinson has struggled with unblocked shot attempts and expected goals when he has had anything more than a fourth line role. These figures are the strongest evidence for my argument that Dickinson can’t produce enough offence to outscore his opponents over a large sample size with consistency.

Wrap

Dickinson seems like a decent human being and a great teammate based on the short sample we got of him last season. He’s an elite defender and a fantastic penalty killer. Those skillsets and attributes simply don’t make him worth $4 million per year over five years. I don’t know how else to put it other than that. He cannot score enough to qualify as a 3rd line player, his impact on 5v5 goal share has not been positive throughout his career, and he has only been above 50% in the faceoff circle for ONE season.

I acknowledge that the cap is rising and the values of bottom of the roster players will rise alongside the cap. That still doens’t change my opinion that this is an overpayment on both AAV and term. You can find solid defensive players and penalty killers that can’t score for much cheaper than Dickinson.

Dickinson’s $4 million AAV currently ties him for the 173rd highest AAV among NHL forwards according to PuckPedia. That ranks his AAV as a top six forward’s AAV. That’s an overpayment, and it will be one for multiple years, even as the cap rises.

Dickinson basically has to be perfect defensively to outscore his opponents because he can’t outscore his mistakes. Dickinson is elite defensively, but even the best defenders get scored on. If you want to win the goal share battle, you need to be able to produce offence as well. Dickinson can’t produce offence at the level of his expected competition.

Jack Roslovic is basically the opposite of Dickinson because he can produce offence at a second line rate but he can’t defend well. I would’ve been mad at Bowman if he had signed Roslovic to the same contract with the same role because being a one dimensional player in such an important role isn’t good enough for a championship level team. A quality 3C on a championship team needs to be solid on both sides of the puck. Dickinson is not that player. Neither is a truly offensively oriented player like Roslovic.

McDavid and Draisaitl eat the majority of the five-on-five minutes. The bottom six basically exists to give those two players a chance to rest. That’s how it has been in Edmonton throughout the McDavid era. Such is the reality when your top two players take up as much of the salary cap as they have since their entry level deals expired. The fact that the Oilers have been cap strapped and forced to find bargain deals throughout the McDavid and Draisaitl era hasn’t helped matters.

The Oilers lost to the Florida Panthers in two consecutive Stanley Cup Finals in 2024 and 2025. A lack of depth scoring was a significant factor in both series. Florida shut down McDavid and Draisaitl for the most part in 2024, especially early in the series when they took a 3-0 lead. Brad Marchand played a huge role in killing the Oilers on the third line in the 2025 series. The Carolina Hurricanes just won a Stanley Cup with twelve forwards that all finished as third line 5v5 points/60 producers during the regular season. The Oilers need more offensive production down the depth chart if they want to win a Stanley Cup. The status quo from a roster construction standpoint isn’t enough to make the Oilers champions. Making Dickinson your 3C won’t change that.

Related: What Stanley Cup level offensive depth looks like

The Oilers had plenty of cap space to work with this summer, especially after factoring in the impending Darnell Nurse trade. The Oilers finally had some cap space to play with and an opportunity to create a third line that can outscore opponents and ease the load on McDavid and Draisaitl, and they’ve blown that opportunity with the Dickinson signing.

The Dickinson signing shows that the Oilers simply want to create a bottom six that will play low event hockey and hopefully not get scored against. I can understand that line of thinking for a fourth line, but I can’t accept that as a strategy for constructing a third line on a team with championship level expectations. The Oilers should be aiming higher than that, especially if they’re panicking about McDavid leaving if they don’t win the Stanley Cup next season. This is not championship level thinking.

At best, this is a reactionary strategic decision to a season where the Oilers struggled to keep the puck out of their net. A summer of rest for the core players, improved goaltending, and a different coach should be enough to fix those issues. I don’t think the all-out defence strategy on the third line is smart or necessary.

This feels like the Trent Frederic contract all over again because it’s an overpayment in both term and AAV to a bottom six player that is two years removed from any kind of individual success. Dickinson is two years removed from his 35-point season, and Frederic was two years removed from his seventeen and eighteen goal seasons when he was acquired at the 2025 trade deadline. Giving these types of contracts to fourth liners and expecting them to play on the third line as Bowman does is a losing strategy.

Bowman was unhappy with Kris Knoblauch’s utilization of Frederic last season, which was usually the fourth line or the pressbox. We can assume Frederic will get bumped up to the third line next season. If we assume Ryan Nugent-Hopkins gets moved down to the third line as many people have suggested (including myself), that third line would be this:

Nugent-Hopkins – Dickinson – Frederic

That’s simply not a quality third line. Nugent-Hopkins can’t produce enough offence to carry those two players. It should be a fine low event line, but it will get outscored at 5v5. I could maybe get on board with the Dickinson at 3C decision if he was to be supported with wingers that can produce offence, but that isn’t going to be the case. Nugent-Hopkins is fine there, but an upgrade on Frederic is needed. If Bowman is going to stick his head in the sand on Frederic being a third liner, it will be a disaster.

This is an overpayment for the declining years of a player that Bowman has overvalued by a significant margin. It will be a problem contract immediately and for the next five years. Most importantly, it will set the Oilers back in their quest to win a Stanley Cup. If they win a Stanley Cup with Dickinson as their 3C, it will be because McDavid and Draisaitl each put up thirteen to seventeen points in the Stanley Cup Final because they will not receive offensive help from the third line.

I’ll eat my words if I’m wrong about the Dickinson signing. I’m confident in my analysis and my thought process here. I just don’t see how this contract is anything but a problem and a mistake.

I’ll also remember all the comments from people saying I’m an idiot or a moron or that I don’t watch hockey from my post about how much of a blunder this signing is from Sunday morning. I’ll be vocal on X, in my writing, and on the Heavy Hockey Podcast if Dickinson’s line can’t outscore the opposition as I expect to be the case.