Raphael Lavoie ready to make a serious push to crack the Oilers’ roster
September 23, 2024What we’ve learned in the first half of Oilers camp
EDMONTON, AB - NOV 12, 2023: Kris Knoblauch addresses the media at Rogers Place. Photo Credit: Oilers TV
September 28, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg
The eight-game preseason for the Edmonton Oilers typically feels like an arduous slog, but this one seems to have flown by. A split squad game against the Calgary Flames that accounts for two of the team’s four preseason games played thus far is likely to blame. Regardless, the first half of the preseason is already done.
The second half of the preseason is where things start to get interesting. 41 players remain in camp, four of which are injured. That doesn’t include Darnell Nurse, who has been skating with the team but has not played in a preseason game yet because of an injury from the playoffs last year that the team is being cautious about.
None of the early camp releases have been surprising. Gone are the kids that needed to get exposed to NHL preseason hockey before inevitably being returned to their junior clubs with the exception of 2024 first rounder Sam O’Reilly, who will get more exposure to the professional game as camp winds down. The AHLers that are most certainly not going to earn recalls at any point this season are gone as well.
The players that remain are either in competition for roster spots, or are potential recall options during the season. These are the lines and pairings from the first group’s session on Friday according to Tom Gazzola:
These lines and pairings represent the leaders at the half-way point of camp in my estimation. Let’s dive in a bit deeper on what we’ve learned from the first four games of the preseason.
Forwards
Bob Stauffer has been talking about the battle for the fourth line centre spot consistently throughout camp. The contestants in his eyes are Derek Ryan, James Hamblin, Noah Philp, and Lane Pederson. All four of them played against the Winnipeg Jets on Wednesday night. The Jets iced an NHL-heavy lineup with some of their best players, so it was a good test for the players competing for roster spots.
The Oilers lost that game 6-1. Philp made a couple of nice passes into the slot for chances on the powerplay, but he won’t ever get powerplay time with the Oilers. None of those players were noticeable at five-on-five on Wednesday night. Nobody did anything to grab the roster spot from Ryan, who is the incumbent.
Honestly, I don’t think the battle for the fourth line centre spot is real. Say what you want about Ryan. He’s old, he’s slow, he’s this, he’s that… but you can’t argue that he can kill penalties and win faceoffs. There are right-handed centres developing in the organization, but none of them are quie ready yet. You also can’t argue that Ryan is a smart hockey player. I think Ryan’s spot on the team is secure. You could move Ryan to right wing, but that would bump Corey Perry out of the lineup. Whether you think it’s merited or not, that’s not happening.
The real battle in my eyes is the battle for the fourth line left wing spot. Evander Kane had successful surgery just over a week ago to address all of his injuries, and the recovery timeline will see him sidelined well into the new year. Ryan and Perry, who are both righties, are pretty much cemented on the fourth line in my opinion. That means the fourth line left wing spot is open.
The contestants are Vasily Podkolzin, Raphael Lavoie, and Mike Hoffman. Podkolzin being on Ryan’s left in practice on Friday makes me think that he has the lead. I thought the spot was his to lose entering camp. Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch has been playing Podkolzin on the left side as opposed to his typical right side, which is exactly what I thought he would do because the available spot is on the left side. Podkolzin’s underlying numbers have been impressive, and his physicality has been noticeable. Podkolzin’s stick positioning in the neutral zone has impressed me. Little details like that, his physicality, and his offensive instincts are why he appears to be in the lead.
Related: Deep Dive: 2024 Oilers Training Camp Preview
Lavoie is certainly in the hunt as well though. He has one goal on eleven shots in two preseason games, including a seven-shot effort against the Flames in the split squad game in Edmonton. Lavoie’s goal came off a hard one-timer on the powerplay, something that he wouldn’t get to show off in the regular season if he were to make the club.
Lavoie and Podkolzin got to play with Leon Draisaitl on Monday evening. It was a chance for them to show what they could do with a star offensive player. An interesting note from that game was that Podkolzin got taken off that line in the third period in exchange for Perry. Both Podkolzin and Lavoie were on for two goals against, so it didn’t feel like a penalty to Podkolzin though. Podkolzin’s underlying numbers were superior to Lavoie’s in that game, with Podkolzin’s 61.31% expected goals for percentage shining brightly above Lavoie’s 53.68%.
Hoffman has played in three games, the most that could have been played by anyone at this time. He has two points in those three games, which places him in a tie for the team lead with Connor McDavid and three defencemen destined for Bakersfield. Both of Hoffman’s points have come on the powerplay. He wouldn’t see top unit powerplay time with the Oilers in the regular season, but second unit powerplay time would be a real possibility. Hoffman led the team in five-on-five ice time in the split squad game in Calgary, but he was on the ice for two goals against in the 6-1 loss. I don’t think anyone expected Hoffman to dominate this preseason, but he hasn’t looked out of place by any means.
Defence
The picture on defence is far more muddled. There are two or three spots open, and nobody has really grabbed the bull by the horns.
Ty Emberson has been skating with Nurse in practice, and he was in that spot on Friday as well. Emberson has surprised me a little bit. I was expecting a smooth skating, rangy player that makes simple plays with the puck and doesn’t move much in the offensive zone. He has been more than that in camp so far. He doesn’t default to rimming the puck around the boards or firing it off the glass and out. He’s a better outlet passer than I was expecting him to be. The thing that has surprised me most about Emberson is his willingness to move around in the offensive zone. He will make pinches, and he will go lower in the zone if he sees an opening. It’s not a constant thing with him, but he’s not afraid to go if the situation calls for it. Emberson got caught up ice on a goal against the Jets on Wednesday night, which is not a mistake that I thought Emberson would make.
Josh Brown was skating on the third pairing with Brett Kulak on Friday. Honestly, I’m getting a bad feeling about that situation. I have not been at all impressed by Brown. Brown needs some time with Paul Coffey because he consistently makes panic plays with the puck in his own end. He’s a terrible outlet passer. He’s big and physical, but that’s all he’s shown me in camp so far. He was signed to replace Vincent Desharnais’ size in the organization, and he got a three-year deal. I’m not going to be impressed if those are the reasons why he lands a spot in the starting defence group on opening night.
Mind you, Stecher hasn’t necessarily earned it either. He’s only played one game, and he went -2. Travis Dermott is -3 in two games. Connor Carrick, who has only played one NHL game since 2020-21, is even with an assist in two games. The team has gotten spanked in their last three games, so I don’t expect many guys to have positive goal shares; but none of what I’ve seen from the defencemen competing for roster spots has inspired confidence.
Wrap
There are four opportunities left for players to grab hold of roster spots. They get the Seattle Kraken and the Vancouver Canucks twice each, once at home and once on the road. It starts with the Kraken visiting Rogers Place on Saturday night, and it ends with a visit to Vancouver to face the Canucks next Friday night. The battles will play themselves out over the next week.
Knoblauch said that “…our next two games will probably have half our lineup, but they’ll be pretty much playing their roles and their situations that they’ll play. And then, as we play probably our last two exhibition games, we’re looking at getting ready for regular season and we’re almost at that stage of having our team.”
Bob Stauffer posted the lines for Saturday night’s game against the Kraken based on the morning skate:
O’Reilly will continue to get a chance to play as long as he’s here. I’m thinking that he will be sent back to the London Knights before the Oilers hit the road for Wednesday’s game in Seattle. Podkolzin is getting a look with Perry, his likely right winger on the fourth line. Ryan, the likely fourth line centre, will be flanked by Lavoie and Hoffman. The best way to see how they will fare with their likely centreman on the fourth line is to play them all together and see what happens. Pederson and Philp will get a chance to play with the organization’s top propsect, Matthew Savoie. Note that Pederson is on the wing instead of centre. That’s a tell that Philp is ahead in the “race”, which I think is accurate.
My eyes will be on the Dermott and Stecher pairing. They have a chance to put themselves ahead of Brown, which is an opportunity that I hope they seize. Gleason is one of the defencemen that is tied for the team lead in points. He’s likely to end up in Bakersfield, but he has played well thus far. It will be nice to get a better look at Phil Kemp as well. If the veteran defencemen continue to be lack lustre, then he could potentially emerge as a viable option.
1 Comment
I have not seen any of the preseason games so my comments are based on long term reasoning. Lavoie and Podkolzin should both be given serious consideration to start season. Lovoie is 15 yrs younger than Perry and if they are even close to being equal he should be on the team. Perry could be 13 forward but in my mind he should not have been signed and maybe they could have kept Holloway! Philip is 10 years younger than Ryan and would be my choice. Maybe Ryan could be 13 and Perry would retire. I do hope Kemp gets a fair shot and from what I have read he is very close to being at least equal to others trying for 6/7 positions but some weird signings have been puzzling?