April 21, 2025 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Edmonton Oilers will take on the Los Angeles Kings in the first round of the NHL playoffs for the fourth consecutive season. 

Tale of the tape

The strength of the Kings is their team defence. They allowed the second fewest goals of any team in the entire league this season, and they had the lowest expected goals against per 60 in the league. It’s one thing for their actual goals allowed to be so low, and it’s another thing for that to match their expected amount of goals against. Darcy Kuemper gave the Kings the quality goaltending they have lacked throughout this four-year playoff rivalry with the Oilers. That’s what led them to a six point improvement in the standings.

Their issue is the same as it has been for many years, which is goal scoring. They scored fewer goals this year than they did last year, and it was a problem for them last year.

The Kings had the best home record in the league; but the Oilers are one of the teams that beat them at Crypto.com Arena this season, and the Oilers are 6-2 there in the last three playoff series between the teams.

It was another slow start for the Oilers this season. They lost their first three games of the season by a combined score of 15-3, and they didn’t really find their groove in the first month of the season. They limped their way through the final two months of the season with the fourteenth best record and the seventeenth best points percentage in the league.

There was a meaty middle section from November 1, 2024 until the start of the 4 Nations Faceoff break in February where the Oilers had the third best record and the second best points percentage in the entire league.

All the games count though. The end result is that the Oilers finished in a position other than second in their division for the first time in their six season run of consecutive playoff appearances, and they will start the first round on the road for the first time since 2006.

The team has endured recent sickness and/or injuries to most of their best players including Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Jake Walman. They have only seen 7:10 worth of Trent Frederic since he was acquired at the trade deadline. Of course, Evander Kane did not play a single second of regular season hockey and has not yet been cleared for contact, although he says that he feels ready to go. McDavid has assured the hockey world that the Oilers are healthy, but how close they are to 100% healthy is unknown.

Will these Oilers be the group that was so great in the middle of the season, or will it be a group that hobbles its way through its playoff run? Who will be in the lineup for Game 1, and who will become available later in the series? How much will injuries affect them? These questions make last season’s Stanley Cup runners up the most intriguing team in the playoffs this season.

Five on Five Play: Advantage LAK

Make no mistake about it, the Kings were the best five-on-five team in the NHL this season. According to Moneypuck, they led the league in goal differential by a significant margin. They also finished first in the league in five-on-five goal share and second in five-on-five expected goal share. Part of it could be attributed to the stellar play of Darcy Kuemper, who finished sixth in goals saved above expected at five-on-five; and part of it could be attributed to improved team play. Regardless, the results speak for themselves.

Meanwhile, the Oilers finished fourth in five-on-five expected goals percentage, but seventeenth in actual five-on-five goals percentage. Their differential was -3. The Oilers can be a great five-on-five team, but even their best wouldn’t be enough to catch the Kings in this category this season.

Special Teams: Advantage EDM

The obvious reason for the Oilers’ advantage in special teams is the ridiculous amount of firepower that the Oilers can boast. The Oilers powerplay has done some special things over the years. They went 9/20 (45%) in last year’s series, and they have gone 25/55 (45.4%) over the last three series against the Kings. The Kings’ penalty kill was the eighth best in the league this season, but having the league’s second best penalty kill last season wasn’t enough to stop the Oilers powerplay. It should be noted that the Oilers powerplay finished twelfth in the league this year. It wasn’t up to its normal level all season, but the powerplay went through an injury-related slump down the stretch.

The Kings are a decent penalty killing team, but their powerplay is horrendous. The good news for the Kings is that special teams might now be as big of a factor in this series as it has been in past years because of the significant decrease in the amount of penalties called league-wide this season. The referees certainly don’t call more penalties in the playoffs.

Goaltending: Advantage LAK

This isn’t even a contest. Kuemper’s .922 save percentage and 2.02 goals against average were second to Connor Hellebuyck among goalies that played more than twelve games this season. I don’t care which Oilers goaltender’s numbers you want to use, they pale in comparison to Kuemper’s numbers this season. Stuart Skinner has the experience of having played in a Stanley Cup Final last season, but Kuemper won a Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche in 2022, so Skinner doesn’t even have a leg up on Kuemper there.

Keys to Victory

Kings: The Kings are one of the best defensive teams in the league. They will have to defend their way to a series win against the Oilers. If they make it tough for the Oilers to get through the neutral zone with speed and to get quality chances from the slot, then Kuemper should be able to limit the damage. 

They will also need to be opportunistic and take advantage of any Oilers turnovers or defensive miscues. The Kings don’t use the 1-3-1 neutral zone system anymore, so they will be able to generate more chances off their forecheck than they have in past series against the Oilers. If they can make life difficult for Evan Bouchard and the other Oilers defencemen, then they will get their chances.

Oilers: The Kings’ biggest weakness is that they struggle to score. The Oilers will need a good performance from Stuart Skinner and solid team defence in front of him if they want to win the series. They have to limit turnovers in the neutral zone and at the offensive blue line to avoid giving up rush chances. The idea is if they can stay out of their own way defensively, then they should be able to outscore the Kings.

These teams have played 18 playoff games against each other in the last three seasons. McDavid has 36 points in those games, and Draisaitl has 30. That works out to an average of 17 combined points every six games. Those two will need similar or superior production in this series to make up for the lack of finishing from other Oilers forwards.

X Factors

Kings: Andrei Kuzmenko

Kuzmenko’s play since his first NHL season where he scored 39 goals wouldn’t indicate that he should be a threat, but he has revitalized his game since joining the Kings at the trade deadline. He has seventeen points in 21 games with the Kings. Kuzmenko has been playing on the top line with Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar, and the trio has been producing. He has never played an NHL playoff game, but a motivated and rejuvenated Kuzmenko is a problem for opponents.

Oilers: Brett Kulak

Kulak missed practice on Sunday due to the impending arrival of his second child, but is expected to play in Game 1. Kulak has been a rock for the Oilers defence this season. He was asked to support young Ty Emberson on the third pairing for most of the season. He’s also been tasked with a lot of second pairing minutes on his off side. Kulak handled the extra responsibility quite well. This was his best regular season as an Oiler. Kulak has been known to step it up in the playoffs, and he will need to do so again because of Ekholm’s injury. He will assume that same role, which was not supposed to be the case after the team acquired Jake Walman at the trade deadline.

Injuries

Kings: Tanner Jeannot missed the last twelve games of the regular season and will not be available until later in the series potentially.

Oilers: Mattias Ekholm will be out for the series. Troy Stecher did not travel to California with the Oilers, but he is skating in Edmonton. That suggests that he might be an option later in the series. 

Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch said that Evander Kane will not be ready for Game 1. Kane said that he feels ready at the end of last week, but he has not been medically cleared to play yet. That will be a situation to monitor going forward.

Trent Frederic will be considered a game-time decision for Game 1.

Players that missed the last games of the regular season like Draisaitl, Hyman, and Walman should be available for Game 1. John Klingberg was removed from LTIR. He won’t play in Game 1, but he could be an option later in the series.

Wrap

The Kings have traditionally been a defence first team, and that’s still true. However, they aren’t being as passive this year as they have been in years past. The Kings used to play a 1-3-1 neutral zone system which emphasized defending their own blue line. There was precious little forechecking. They waited for the opponent to come to them. That passive strategy limited scoring chances at both ends of the ice.

This year, they have gone to a 1-2-2 neutral zone system, which is a more typical system. It allows them to be a little bit more aggressive, which has led to more scoring chances for them. That’s something the Oilers will have to be careful about because of their penchant for turnovers and allowing odd man rushes.

The Kings have become the best five-on-five team in the league as a result of that change. Getting fantastic goaltending also helped, but they scored more goals than they did last season as well.

It’s going to be a tight-checking series like we have come to expect when playing the Kings, but they are a more dangerous offensive team than they have been in the three previous seasons where the Oilers have beaten them in the playoffs. 

The Oilers have also regressed as a five-on-five team this season. They don’t finish at as high of a rate, and they allowed eighteen more five-on-five goals than they did last year. Those factors along with their current injury issues make me think the Oilers will have a much tougher time with the Kings this year than they have in the last three seasons.

Related: Oilers vs Kings: Series Preview