May 21, 2025 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Edmonton Oilers will take on the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference Final for the second consecutive year. The Oilers won the series in six games. This will be the tenth series between these two teams. Last year’s series win brought the Oilers’ all-time series record against the Stars franchise to 3-6.

Related: Oilers vs Golden Knights II: Series Wrap

Tale of the tape (Regular season, Playoffs)

Dallas Stars

The Stars have been considered a Stanley Cup favourite for most of the season. The biggest story out of Dallas this season was the trade deadline acquisition of Mikko Rantanen. They gave a quality young player in Logan Stankoven as part of a package to make the trade happen, but the immediate returns on Rantanen have been high. He became the first player in NHL history to record a hat trick in the third period of a Game 7 in the first round against the Colorado Avalanche, and he followed that up with another hat trick in Game 1 in round two against the Winnipeg Jets. The Stars have emerged from a difficult Central Division en route to this Conference Final series, and they are out for revenge on the Oilers this year.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers enter the Western Conference Final with some momentum. They lost their first two games of round one, but they have won eight of their last nine games since then. That included winning four straight games against the Los Angeles Kings and taking four out of five from the Vegas Golden Knights.

Five on Five Play: Advantage EDM

The Stars had a five-on-five goal differential that was 29 higher than the Oilers during the regular season according to Moneypuck. They finished eighth in five-on-five goals for percentage as opposed to the Oilers who finished 18th.

However, the Stars finished thirteenth in expected goals for percentage, whereas the Oilers finished fourth. The Oilers didn’t finish with a higher goal differential because their finishing was lacking and their goaltending struggled.

The discrepancies between the xGF% and the actual GF% for these teams in the playoffs are much smaller. The Stars are seventh in xGF% (49.56%) and tenth in actual GF% (47.62%). The Oilers are leading the playoffs at a 58.91% xGF%, and they’re fourth in the playoffs with an actual GF% of 58%. The Oilers have played in two fewer games than the Stars have, and the Oilers have scored nine more five-on-five goals than the Stars have in these playoffs (29-20). The Oilers have also allowed one less five-on-five goal than the Stars have (22-21). The Oilers’ goal differential is ten greater than the Stars’ goal differential through two rounds of playoff hockey.

The discrepancies being smaller between xGF% and actual GF% for these teams tells me we’re getting the expected results in the playoffs, and that wasn’t the case in the regular season. The Oilers had the superior xGF% in the regular season, which suggests their process was correct but they weren’t getting the results they wanted. They’re getting those results in the playoffs.

It should also be noted that the Stars are struggling at five-on-five without Rantanen on the ice. According to Natural Stat Trick, they have been outscored 9-18 (33.33%) without Rantanen on the ice, and their xGF% is 48.14%. They aren’t expected to outscore their opponents without Rantanen on the ice, and they’re getting caved in without Rantanen on the ice. Their GF% with Rantanen on the ice is a whopping 11-4 (73.33%), but their xGF% with him on the ice is only 50.44%. That is an unsustainable difference between expected and actual goals percentages. The 33.33% GF% without Rantanen on the ice is unsustainable too; but if Rantanen’s five-on-five offence dries up, it will be a short series.

The Stars had an elite penalty kill in the regular season, and it has improved in these playoffs. They are killing penalties with 86% efficiency, which is third best in the playoffs. Their powerplay is rolling at 30.8% in the playoffs, which is a big jump from their 22% in the regular season. I’m sure that having Rantanen on their top powerplay unit is helping their cause.

The Oilers’ special teams units are not performing anywhere close to their capabilities. Their powerplay is only at 25%, which is quite low by their standards. They only scored once on eleven opportunities in the entire second round. The Oilers haven’t scored a powerplay goal on the road in these playoffs yet. That’s not what we’re used to seeing out of that group. Connor McDavid is quite confident that they will figure it out though.

The Oilers penalty kill was incredible during last year’s playoffs, but they are fourteenth in the playoffs at 66.7%. Most of the damage was done in round one against the Kings. The Kings went 8/20 (40%) in the series, but that included them going 7/12 in the first three games. The Oilers killed seven out of eight penalties in the last three games of the Kings series. The Oilers were 10/13 (76.9%) in the second round. That means that they have killed seventeen out of twenty-one penalties (80.95%) in their last eight games. That’s an improvement, but they still have room for more improvement.

Jake Oettinger is a better goaltender than either oilers goaltender without a doubt. It doesn’t matter whether you want to compare regular season numbers or playoff numbers, Oettinger’s numbers are better. 

The only caveat to that statement is that Stuart Skinner outperformed Oettinger in last year’s Western Conference Final. Skinner is feeling pretty good about his game after posting back-to-back shutouts to close out the Golden Knights. Calvin Pickard has a 6-0 record in these playoffs. He won’t start the series, but he is expected back later in the series.

Keys to Victory

Stars: As Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch has pointed out, the Stars are one of the best teams in the league at generating rush chances. The Oilers are susceptible to rush attacks when they aren’t on their game. The Stars’ ability to score off the rush will be a huge factor if they win the series.

The Stars also need to ensure that they win the special teams battle. They are entering the series with an advantage in special teams, and they need the numbers to continue to reflect that advantage by the end of the series if they want to win.

Oettinger will also need to be the best goalie in the series in order for the Stars to win.

Oilers: The Oilers need to dominate five-on-five play. The Stars are a middling five-on-five team at best, especially when Rantanen is on the ice. If they possess the puck and if the defencemen continue to move it well, then they should be fine.

They have played two other elite rush teams in these playoffs already, so they know how to beat that style of play. They need to make good choices at the offensive blue line, and they need to make sure that they have a high forward in the offensive zone. The forwards need to maintain the commitment to back checking that we saw from them against the Golden Knights.

For what it’s worth, the Oilers outscored the Stars 5-0 in all facets of special teams play in last year’s series. That included a short-handed goal. If they can conjure up that same kind of magic again and find a way to win the special teams battle, it will be a short series.

X Factors

Stars: Jason Robertson

The Stars will need more out of their leading goal scorer from the regular season. Robertson missed some of the playoffs with an injury, but he only had one point in six games played. If he can find a way to get going, then the Stars will be a much scarier proposition.

Oilers: Connor Brown

Brown has been great for the Oilers in these playoffs. He’s in a tie for second on the team with four goals, and in a tie for sixth with seven points. Brown’s depth contributions would be a big factor in how the Oilers fare in the five-on-five goal share battle. His success is a big reason why the Oilers are +7 (16-9) at five-on-five without McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the ice in these playoffs. Brown is also one of the Olers’ most trusted penalty killers. He and Mattias Janmark create a lot of short-handed chances. If Brown is effective on the penalty kill and if he chip in with a short-handed goal, it will go a long ways towards the Oilers winning the series.

Injuries

Stars: Nils Lundkvist will not play again this season due to a shoulder injury.

Oilers: Brown did not take the morning skate on Wednesday, but he is listed as a game-time decision for Game 1. He did not skate with the team on Saturday because of what was called a maintenance day. Brown is clearly nursing some kind of injury, but it doesn’t seem like anything that he can’t play through.

Mattias Ekholm travelled to Dallas with the team, but he will not play in either Game 1 or Game 2. Ekholm is expected to return later in the series though.

Pickard did not travel to Dallas, but is expected to return later in the series.

Wrap

It feels like the teams have sort of switched this season compared to last. The Stars were considered the deeper team, and the Oilers were considered top heavy.

That’s not the case this year. The Stars became more top heavy when they added Rantanen. They gave up Stankoven to do that. They lost Joe Pavelski, Radek Faksa, and Ty Dellandrea over the summer. Mikael Granlund was added during the season, but that’s it. They have Sam Steel playing third line center this year instead of fourth line centre. They have Jamie Benn and Evgeni Dadonov on their fourth line which would indicate depth; but they are not the players they once were. Benn has three points in the playoffs, and Dadonov has four. You could argue that Benn and Dadonov producing at fourth line levels represents a loss for them.

They also lost Chris Tanev and Ryan Suter in free agency last summer. Matt Dumba was signed in the summer, and he’s a healthy scratch. Cody Ceci was acquired during the season. A healthy Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley, and Esa Lindell are great defencemen; but it gets a little thin after that.

Related: Series Preview: Oilers vs Stars

The Oilers are the deeper team this year. They’re the deepest they’ve been in many years. They’re getting contributions from everyone in the lineup. Their two premier free agent signings are both health scratches right now not necessarily because they’re terrible, but because there just isn’t room in the lineup for them right now because everyone has a role and the team is winning. The Oilers’ top players are still superior to anyone’s in the league as well. McDavid and Draisaitl supported by productive depth is a terrifying thought.

The additions of Jake Walman and John Klingberg have made a huge impact on the Oilers defence. They have been a tremendous pairing. Once Ekholm returns, they will have six defencemen who can reliably play in the top four, which is ridiculous.

The Stars were the better five-on-five team coming into the series, and the Oilers were expected to lean on their special teams. The Stars’ special teams are executing at a high level in these playoffs. The Oilers’ special teams aren’t as good as they have been in the past, which is a plot twist. That’s been okay because they’ve been so good at five-on-five play.

Some things may have changed for these two teams since last season, but they both play with the same systems they used last year. The other thing that’s the same is that the Stars will start with home ice advantage. The series gets underway tonight from the American Airlines Center in Dallas.