June 1, 2025 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Edmonton Oilers will take on the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final for the second consecutive year. The Panthers took the series last year, and the Oilers are hoping for revenge. The last time there was a Stanley Cup Final rematch the following season was in 2009 when Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Detroit Red Wings after losing to them the year prior. It also happened in 1984 when Wayne Gretzky and the Oilers beat the New York Islanders after losing to them in 1983.

Tale of the tape (Regular season, Playoffs)

The Panthers have basically rolled through the playoffs to get back to the Stanley Cup Final for the third consecutive season. They beat the Tampa Bay Lightning in five games in round one, and the Carolina Hurricanes in five games in the Eastern Conference Final. They got into a bit of trouble early in the second round against the Toronto Maple Leafs, but they turned it around and won the series in seven games. They have won eight of their last ten games entering the Stanley Cup Final, including five of their last six.

They won’t have home ice advantage this time, but they have been dominant on the road in these playoffs. The Panthers won all three road games against the Lightning by a combined score of 14-5. They split the four games in Toronto in round two; but they outscored the Leafs 19-11 in those four games, including matching 6-1 wins in Games 5 and 7. They also took all three games in Raleigh, and they outscored the Hurricanes 15-5 in those games. Add it all up, and the Panthers are 8-2 on the road having outscored opponents 48-21. They have won their last five road games by a combined score of 27-7.

The Panthers’ road record is impressive, but they lost the first two games in Toronto after taking all three from the LIghtning the round before. They just took all three road games from the Hurricanes, and they will be heading into a hostile environment at Rogers Place for Games 1 and 2.

The Oilers are coming into the Stanley Cup Final hot as well. They have also won eight of their last ten games, including the last four in a row and six of their last seven. They pulled off the gentleman’s sweep against the Dallas Stars, and they won each of those four consecutive games by more than three goals. They also took down the Vegas Golden Knights in five games in round two after beating the Los Angeles Kings in six games in round one. Ever since losing the first two games of the first round to the Kings, the Oilers are 12-2.

Related: Oilers vs Stars II: Series Wrap

The Oilers will have home ice advantage in this series, which is a luxury they have not enjoyed yet in these playoffs, nor did they have it in last year’s Stanley Cup Final. The Oilers have only lost one game at Rogers Place this spring, which was the dramatic last second loss to the Golden Knights in Game 3 of the second round. They are 6-1 at home, and they have outscored opponents 33-17 in those games.

Just in case you’re wondering, the Oilers have been better on the road than the Panthers have been at home in these playoffs. The Oilers are 6-3 on the road, and they have outscored opponents 32-28. The Panthers are 4-3 at home, and they have played to an 18-18 draw at Amerant Bank Arena.

Five on Five Play: EVEN

There really isn’t a lot to pick and choose between these two teams at five-on-five. They are the second and third best teams in the playoffs in five-on-five expected goals percentage, and the second and third best teams in five-on-five actual goals percentage according to Moneypuck. They were the third and fourth best teams in the league in xGF% during the regular season, but both teams underperformed in GF% (the Oilers (18th) more so than the Panthers (10th)). 

The interesting thing is that their strengths and weaknesses counteract each other. The Oilers are better at scoring and creating chances, while the Panthers are better at defending and preventing them.

Oddly enough, the Panthers are scoring more five-on-five goals per game (2.76) than the Oilers (2.63) in the playoffs; and the Oilers are allowing fewer five-on-five goals per game (1.63) than the Panthers are allowing (1.65). According to Moneypuck, the Panthers are leading the playoffs in five-on-five goals above expected (12.3) by a large margin over the next best team, whereas the Oilers have only scored 2.21 goals above expected. The Oilers are second in the playoffs at -5.8 goals allowed above expected, and the Panthers are eighth (-1.8). 

Both teams are overachieving at their weaknesses in the playoffs, and they are excelling at their strengths. Whichever team can keep overachieving at their weaknesses through the rest of the series will win the Stanley Cup.

Special Teams: Advantage FLA

The Panthers have the advantage over the Oilers here based on their penalty kill. It is leading the playoffs at 87.9%. The Panthers’ penalty kill was tenth best in the league at 80.7% during the regular season. They’re essentially doing what the Oilers did last year when they killed 48 of the last 49 chances in the playoffs.

Conversely, the Oilers penalty kill in these playoffs ranks near the bottom of the league. They had a rough start against the Kings in round one as the Kings went 7/12 on their powerplay in the first three games of the series, but they have improved since then. They have killed 27 of their last 35 penalties in their last thirteen games. That included an abysmal third period in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final where the Stars scored three powerplay goals in six minutes. Since then, the Oilers have killed nine of their last ten penalties. Despite the improvement, the Oilers penalty kill is still a far cry from the Panthers penalty kill.

There are only two spots between the teams in the playoff powerplay rankings, but the Oilers powerplay is operating at a 6.8% better clip than the Panthers powerplay. They struggled in round two (1/11, 9.09%), but they got hot in round three (6/16, 37.5%). They scored at least one powerplay goal in every game of the Western Conference Final.

I have a feeling that special teams will be a big part of this series. It wasn’t a huge factor in last year’s series. The teams only scored four powerplay goals combined in the entire series! The Oilers had two shorthanded goals last year, but neither team has been involved in a game where a shorthanded goal was scored in these playoffs. I gave the Panthers the advantage here, but it’s a slight advantage that could easily end up turning out in the Oilers’ favour.

Goaltending: Advantage FLA

Let’s not get it twisted: Sergei Bobrovsky is the best goaltender in the series. He’s a two-time Vezina Trophy winner and a Stanley Cup champion. HIs numbers in the regular season and the playoffs are superior to both Oilers goaltenders.

However, Bobrovsky did not have a great Stanley Cup Final last year. He was brilliant in Games 1 and 2, but the Oilers got to him in Games 3 through 6. Then he shut the door with a fantastic performance in Game 7. Overall, his save percentage in the series was .812, and his goals against average was 5.49.

Stuart Skinner actually had better numbers in last year’s series (.909 sv%, 2.33 GAA). Skinner is also playing lights out hockey right now. He’s 6-1 with three shutouts ever since his Game 3 loss to the Golden Knights in round two.

Keys to Victory

Panthers: If the Panthers stay true to their identity of being aggressive on the forecheck and suffocating defensively, then they will win the series. If their forecheckers can make life tough for Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm specifically, then they should be able to create some turnovers that lead to goals. Bouchard has been excellent in the playoffs, but he has shown a propensity for turning the puck over in dangerous situations in the past. Ekholm has only played one game since missing about two months due to injury. That pairing feels like the most susceptible pairing to the Panthers forecheck; but they also have the skill to avoid it.

The Panthers will also need to stifle the Oilers offence. Don’t let them attack with speed in the neutral zone, and don’t let them spend a lot of time in the offensive zone. They also can’t expect to win with Bobrovsky being the second best goaltender in the series again like they did last year.

More specifically, they need to contain the Oilers’ two superstars. The Panthers need to make the Oilers beat them with their depth. Leon Draisaitl only had three points in the entire series last year. If they can get that kind of result again, the Panthers will win.

Oilers: The Oilers defence’s ability to avoid the Panthers forecheck will be a major storyline in this series. The Oilers defence is incredibly mobile and adept at moving the puck.

The Panthers like to attack the defence with two forecheckers, then load up the strong side with the high forward and a defenceman ready and willing to pinch at the blue line. The Oilers can beat that forecheck by having their centre support low in the zone, activating the weak side defenceman, and utilizing the middle of the ice. That was the adjustment they made mid-series last year to spark the comeback. The Panthers made a subtle adjustment in Game 7 by having the high forward protect the middle of the ice more to prevent odd man rushes for the Oilers, and it worked. We’ll see if they return to that plan or if they stick to what got them here.

The Panthers have been getting a lot of scoring from their defence. The Oilers have been really good at playing connected as a group in the playoffs, and they will need that continued buy-in from the forwards to prevent those rush chances for the Panthers defence.

The Panthers play either a tight box plus one defensive system, or they play the swarm system where all five skaters are basically below the circle on the same side of the ice. The Oilers’ cycle game will have to get the Panthers defenders moving laterally by moving the puck around the walls then attacking the middle when the defence has to shift.

The Oilers won’t win this series if their special teams don’t step up. They will keep the five-on-five battle close at worst, but the special teams battle could go any direction. The Oilers need their penalty kill to shut things down and they need timely goals from their powerplay if they want to win the series.

Skinner doesn’t have to be perfect, but he needs to be good.

I’ll leave the obvious statement for last. McDavid and Draisaitl need to lead the series in scoring. The Oilers have been getting great depth contributions this spring, but the two highest scoring players in the league over the last seven seasons need to own this series if the Oilers are going to win.

X Factors

Panthers: Evan Rodrigues

Rodrigues had a big series for the Panthers in last year’s Stanley Cup Final. He got four goals in the series, including three goals in the first two games of the series. He scored two goals including the game winner in Game 2. He had only scored three goals in the entire playoffs before the Stanley Cup Final. This year, he only has one goal in fifteen games. If they get another big series from Rodrigues on top of the goal scoring they’re already getting, then it would be a boon for the Panthers.

Oilers: Evander Kane

Kane was -4 with no points in the first two games of last year’s Stanley Cup Final. He was then taken out of the lineup and removed from the series. Kane didn’t play another game until Game 2 of the first round this year. He didn’t get the chance to impact last year’s series, but he’s healthy and in fine form right now. The Oilers will be leaning on him to replace some of the physicality and the goal scoring that the Oilers will miss with Zach Hyman being unavailable. We saw what Kane did to Matthew Tkachuk during the Battle of Alberta series in 2022. Tkachuk was a non-factor in that series, and Kane’s work against him was a bg reason for that.

Injuries

Panthers: Eetu Luostarinen and Anton Lundell both left Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Final, but both are expected to be ready for Game 1. AJ Greer is listed as day-to-day.

Oilers: Zach Hyman will unfortunately miss the series with an upper body injury that everyone knows is a broken wrist.

Connor Brown missed Games 4 and 5 of the Western Conference Final after taking a big hit from Alex Petrovic in Game 3, but he said that he expects to be ready for Game 1.

Wrap

This is going to be an incredible series between two elite teams! There isn’t much of a gap between these two teams, if any. They each have different playing styles, so it will come down to which team executes their game plan the best.

That was not the Oilers in the first three games of the series last year. They simply made too many critical mistakes in the first three games, and they dug themselves too deep of a hole to dig out of (although they almost did it).

The Oilers are better equipped to handle the Panthers this year. For one thing, they have home ice advantage this year, so it’s EXTREMELY unlikely that the Oilers will lose the first three games of the series again. Their defence is deeper and more mobile, and they’re getting the offensive contributions from all over the lineup that they lacked in last year’s series. They’re also better prepared mentally to handle the extra pressure of being in a Stanley Cup Final because of last year’s experience. 

That especially goes for McDavid and Draisaitl. McDavid only got one point in the first two games in Florida last year, and Draisaitl only got three points in the entire series. I don’t think McDavid will only have one point in any given two-game segment in this series; and I don’t expect Draisaitl to struggle against the same team in a series twice, especially since he’s closer to 100% healthy this time around.

The Panthers are arguably also better than they were last year. They got Brad Marchand and Seth Jones at the trade deadline, and they have been great in the playoffs. They made quick work of the Lightning in round one, and they disposed of the Hurricanes pretty easily in the Eastern Conference Final.

They are getting more contributions from the middle of their lineup and from their defence, but the Panthers are only three lines deep. The Oilers had Viktor Arvidsson (5 points in 11 games), Vasily Podkolzin (6 points in 16 games), and Mattias Janmark (4 points in 16 games) on their fourth line in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final. The Panthers had AJ Greer (3 points in 12 games), Tomas Nosek (3 points in 10 games), and Jonah Gadjovich (3 points in 10 games) on their fourth line in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Final.

I would argue that the Oilers have had the tougher road to get here though. The Oilers went through the Kings, the Golden Knights, and the Stars. The Panthers beat an injury riddled Lightning team, a Leafs team that can’t get out of its own head, and a Hurricanes team that was simply outclassed. The Oilers have had the tougher road, and they got here in one less game than the Panthers did.

The Panthers are an amazing team and they have been the standard in the league for the last two seasons, but they’re beatable. The Oilers nearly did it after giving them a head start last year. The Panthers offer a lot of physical and tactical challenges, but the Oilers can handle those things. Whether they will or not remains to be seen.

The biggest obstacle in the Oilers’ way is mental. They had to sit in the locker room in deafening silence while the Panthers celebrated a Stanley Cup victory last year. The Oilers are going to have to hear about how good the Panthers are for the entire series. They will have to overcome one last mental hurdle and defeat one last demon if they are to get a better ending this time around.

Related: Series Wrap: Oilers vs Panthers

The Oilers will begin their quest for revenge on Wednesday evening at Rogers Place.