June 18, 2026 by Ryan Lotsberg

Terms like “top six scoring winger” appear on every NHL team’s shopping list each summer. Terms like that carry certain connotations or archetypes. “Top six forward” generally conjures up images of a game breaker that typically fills the net, especially now that scoring is up across the league compared to where it was a decade ago.

We have to remember that the group of players that fit the category of “top six forward” has grown since the league has expanded to 32 teams. Simple math tells us that 32 multiplied by six is 192, which means there are now 192 top six forward spots in the league. Of course, some teams have more than six “top six” forwards and some have less based on actual scoring results.

This year’s Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes had eight forwards that qualified as “top six forwards” based on their five-on-five points per 60 rates during the 2025-26 regular season according to Natural Stat Trick. They had twelve forwards that finished as “top nine” forwards based on that same metric. They had a WHOLE LINEUP of forwards that produced at the level of a third liner or more. THAT is quality depth throughout the lineup.

If you want to break it down by line, the Hurricanes had two players that were top line players, six second line players, and four third line players. By logic, they had one player playing above where his production dictated he should’ve played, which was one of the six players that were second line scorers. That was more than offset by the fact that they had four forwards playing below where their production suggested they should be in the lineup.

For comparison, the Edmonton Oilers’ playoff roster had two top line scorers, four second line scorers, two third line scorers, four fourth line scorers, and two forwards that didn’t produce enough offence as much as a fourth liner. They had six top six forwards, but the distribution of that production was top heavy, as you might expect with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl leading the way. 

Zach Hyman was next on the list at 133rd, which places him as a fifth forward. In fact, all four of the Oilers classified as “second line” forwards were fifth forwards (Hyman, Kasperi Kapanen, Jack Roslovic, Vasily Podkolzin). It’s good to have that many second line forwards, but none of them were highly ranked second line forwards.

The production really dropped off after that. Matt Savoie barely qualified as a seventh forward (222nd/224), and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ranked as a ninth forward (269th/288). Colton Dach (341st) and Jason Dickinson (343rd) were next down the list, which placed them as eleventh forwards. 

I’ve stated this many times, but Dickinson CANNOT produce offence at a requisite level to be a capable third line centre, especially not on a championship level team. He could be the best defensive forward in the world, and he would still lose the 5v5 goal share battle on a third line, especially if getting a heavier dose of elite competition than a regular third liner would. He’s a 4C at most. There is NO PLANET in the galaxy where he is worth the asking prices of $4-5 million that I’ve seen floating around online. I cannot overstate how much of an unforced error it would be to sign Dickinson to play a 3C role at the reported asking prices. If he wants to cash in on this contract, he can do it elsewhere.

Anyway, Adam Henrique and Trent Frederic both produced at the rates of twelfth forwards. Both were in the bottom half of the list of players that would be considered twelfth forwards last season. Frederic was 381st out of 384 qualified forwards. For the record, my search query on Natural Stat Trick was for players that played at least 500 5v5 minutes, and the search yielded exactly 384 players for the 2025-26 season (32 x 12  = 384).

Curtis Lazar and Josh Samanski did not produce offense at a level that would rank them among the top 384 forwards based on 5v5 points per 60. For the people that have suggested that Samanski is ready for third line centre duty, I would point them to his offensive production and say that I see him as nothing more than a defensively minded 4C that needs to grow into that role. An uptick in offensive production would make him a legitimate 4C option. A lot would have to happen for Samanski to become a viable option at 3C. I have time for Samanski, but we need to be realistic about the expectations on this player for next season.

I realize that offensive production is only half the equation, but offensive production demonstrates that a player manages the puck well and that has the skill to compete at the NHL level. Defensive acumen matters, but offensive production matters as well and defensive acumen is difficult to measure accurately.

This year’s Stanley Cup champions had tremendous offensive depth. Using the same comparison between the 2024-25 Oilers and the Florida Panthers that beat them in the 2025 Stanley Cup Final, it became clear that the Panthers had superior forward depth to the Oilers.

The Oilers had their usual two top line scorers, but the Panthers had four such players. The Oilers had three second line scorers during the regular season. One of them was Hyman, who missed the 2025 Stanley Cup Final because of a wrist injury suffered during the Western Conference Final. Another was Jeff Skinner, who watched most of the playoffs from the press box. The Panthers had three second line scorers.

The Panthers had a clear advantage on the third line on paper with Brad Marchand, who ranked as a top six forward during the regular season. They also had four forwards that ranked as third liners based on their production. The Oilers had three such players. The Oilers had four fourth liners compared to three for the Panthers.

This simple analysis should tell us that despite being among the league leaders in goals and expected goals over the last few seasons, the Oilers need more productive forwards throughout the lineup if they want to achieve their goal of winning the Stanley Cup.

They don’t just need another top six forward that barely qualifies as such. They need another top line scorer. That would push one of their top six level producers down to the third line. They also simply need more out of the players that they choose to employ in depth spots. Having six forwards producing at the level of an eleventh forward or worse is simply not good enough for a team with championship expectations.

The caveat is that these forwards also need to be defensively responsible because the Oilers really struggled to keep the puck out of their net last season.

This line of thinking will inform the list of players that I’ll suggest the Oilers should target this summer, which I’ll reveal in a piece in the coming days.

Related: 2026-27 Oilers Cap Primer