January 8, 2021 by Ryan Lotsberg

Edmonton Oilers Head Coach Dave Tippett hasn’t been one to tinker with his lines very often, unlike his predecessor Todd McLellan. Having consistent linemates was something that the core players wanted after McLellan left, and Tippett has delivered that. However, the current combinations just aren’t working.

I set out to find the best line combinations based on the three most important even-strength metrics in my estimation: goals for percentage (GF%), expected goals % (xG%), and scoring chances for % (SCF%). The numbers mean nothing without proper interpretation though, and I’ll do my best to take you through my thought process here.

The top line of Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid, and Jesse Puljujarvi has been solid. The only thing that’s a little baffling is Hyman’s even strength GF% being at 39.13%. He’s played 61.9% of his even strength ice time with McDavid, and they’ve outscored the opposition 14-11 at even strength. However, Hyman has been outscored 10-2 away from McDavid. Hyman needs to stay on McDavid’s wing. Heaven forbid Hyman gets stuck out late on a shift.

Also, more respect needs to be put on Puljujarvi’s name. He’s got five more even strength points than anyone not named Connor or Leon, and his notable underlying numbers are higher than McDavid’s in each of the categories that I examined.

The DRY line has gone dry. Leon Draisaitl has 31 even strength points, but his linemates only have ten each. Their GF% as a trio is 53.85, but their xG% is only 44.23% and their SCF% is only 43.01%. Leon Draisaitl only has eight even strength points in the last fifteen Oilers games. They’re getting burned now that Leon has cooled off at even strength by his standards.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’s GF% is 47.62%, his xG% is 47.14%, and his SCF% is 47.57. Kailer Yamamoto’s struggles to get shots on goal and points have been well documented, and his underlying numbers don’t suggest that he’s been better than we thought. His GF% is 43.75%, his xG% is 45.07%, and his SCF% is 44.75%. Yamamoto has produced in the last few games, but the Oilers need more production out of him. The same goes for Nugent-Hopkins at even strength. Leon Draisaitl needs players on his line that can produce, and he doesn’t have them right now.

Warren Foegele and Derek Ryan were brought here to play on the third line and to provide more depth scoring. Foegele has just as many even strength points as Nugent-Hopkins and Yamamoto. However, Ryan only has two even strength points. His GF% of 24% (6-19) is really disappointing, but his performance in the other two categories is better (xG% of 49.25% and SCF% of 48.03%). 

Foegele’s overall GF% of 39.47% at even strength isn’t good either, but his other numbers are also better (xG% of 49.37, SCF% of 50.64%). Ryan and Foegele have a GF% of 20% (3-12) while playing together. Ryan’s GF% is slightly better away from Foegele (30%), but Foegele’s GF% without Ryan jumps up to 55%. It’s fair to say that Ryan has drug Foegele’s GF% down. Those two should never play together again!

Meanwhile, Ryan McLeod has six even strength points, his GF% is 53.33%, his xGF% is 48.33%, and his SCF% is 50%. The kid’s been pretty good, and he’s been great with Foegele. Their GF% together is 50%, their xGF is 54.6%, and their SCF% is 56.57%. McLeod needs to be Foegele’s centre on the third line.

The group of Devin Shore, Colton Sceviour, Kyle Turris, Tyler Benson, and Brendan Perlini have been in and out of the lineup all season. They’ve mostly been utilized as fourth liners, but they’ve had to play on the third line and rarely on the second line as well. The best GF% out of that group is Shore’s 38.46%. Sceviour has the highest marks in the other two metrics that I examined (xG% of 49.4%, SCF% of 50.34%). There’s no great combination of these guys that make a solid fourth line. It is what it is.

In order to create any sort of real change in the Oilers’ results by changing the lines, the DRY line needs to be broken up. It’d be easy enough to throw Zack Kassian into Yamamoto’s spot. He’s got eleven even strength points in twenty six games this season. His GF% is 48.57%, his xGF% is 51.3%, and his SCF% is 50.34%. Those are much better numbers than Yamamoto’s. However, I want to throw another idea out there.

Nugent-Hopkins was moved to left wing on the DRY line in 2019-20, and it was a resounding success. Nugent-Hopkins played left wing with McDavid in the bubble, and they excelled as a duo in that short series. Nugent-Hopkins has been playing left wing ever since then.

Nugent-Hopkins has struggled to produce points at even strength while playing left wing. He only has 25 even strength points in the 82 games that he’s played at left wing since the start of the 2020-21 season. He’s got 61 points in those 82 games. That’s one heck of a season if you put the two together, but 34 of those points were on the powerplay! My point is that he should be playing centre.

Draisaitl can produce from any position on the ice. I’m not thinking about simply flipping Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl. I’m thinking about moving Draisaitl to right wing to replace Yamamoto, and moving Nugent-Hopkins to centre. Draisaitl has played right wing in the past, most notably when he flanked McDavid and Patrick Maroon. I wouldn’t be worried about Draisaitl playing right wing instead of centre.

That would do a couple of things for the lineup. It would move a strong right winger down to the fourth line, which would give it a puncher’s chance at breaking a 40% GF%. My new and improved fourth line would be Perlini-Ryan-Kassian. The Ryan-Kassian duo has a GF% of 46.15%, but their xGF% is 54.19% and their SCF% is 53.76%. I’d put Perlini with them since he’s so willing to shoot the puck, and he’s got a couple of goals recently. This is a fourth line that actually has a chance to score.

Moving Draisaitl to right wing and Nugent-Hopkins to centre would also open up a skill position on the left wing for Tyler Benson. His notable underlying numbers have been okay in comparison to most of the guys at the bottom of the roster (xGF% of 43.87%, SCF% of 47.32%). His 25% GF% is a little deceiving since he’s only been on the ice for eight goals all season (2-6), and he’s been playing with garbage linemates. I can see that the game is starting to slow down a little bit for Benson now. He’s taking more time with the puck, and he’s trying to make plays rather than just getting rid of it as quickly as he can. He’s not chasing the game anymore like he was early in the season.

Remember what happened the last time Tippett put a rookie on a line with Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins? That trio went on a crazy hot streak. That streak has run out, and that line isn’t working anymore. It’s time to try something new. Maybe lightning will strike twice.

Here’s what I’d roll with going forward, assuming that the team is at full health:

Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi

Benson-Nugent-Hopkins-Draisaitl

Foegele-McLeod-Yamamoto

Perlini-Ryan-Kassian

Thanks to Natural Stat Trick for the data, and to Hockey Reference for the even strength scoring numbers for Nuge and Draisaitl.