January 16, 2022 by Ryan Lotsberg

In case you missed my first Deep Dive article, I dove into the numbers to find the best line combinations for the Oilers. This is the second part of my Deep Dive where I’ll be examining the defence group based on some underlying numbers.

My analysis is based on the three most important metrics in my estimation, which are goals for percentage (GF%), expected goals percentage (xG%), and scoring chances for percentage (SCF%). 

I put a little more weight on SCF% for defencemen because as much as goals are what win and lose hockey games, there are some other factors involved including luck when evaluating goals alone. The expected goals metric serves to reduce the impact of those factors, but the nice thing about measuring scoring chances is that there’s a much larger sample size to evaluate, which makes it a better gauge of actual performance.

I also wanted to focus specifically on scoring chances against. It’s not fair to base any analysis on a quantity of scoring chances against because ice time is a factor. I calculated the scoring chances against per 60 (SCA/60) for all of the Oilers defencemen that have played games for them this season, with the exception of Dmitri Samorukov. Here’s how they rank:

1. William Lagesson – 19.74
2. Cody Ceci – 26.62
3. Darnell Nurse – 26.78
4. Philip Broberg – 27.07
5. Evan Bouchard – 27.97
6. Duncan Keith – 28.27
7. Slater Koekkoek – 28.38
8. Tyson Barrie – 29.17
9. Kris Russell – 29.72
10. Markus Niemelainen – 29.98

We need to put more respect on William Lagesson’s name. He’s only played 103:22 over nine games, but he’s been the best Oilers defenceman when it comes to limiting scoring chances against. His GF% is 55.56% (2nd in the group), his xG% is 61.62% (1st), and his SCF% is 54.05% (1st). It’s a small sample size, but these are fantastic numbers. If there’s a time to give a player like this more ice time, it’s now while the team is losing and needing to do something differently.

The most concerning player on that list is Tyson Barrie. The fact that he’s not in the top six on this list shouldn’t surprise anyone. That’s not Barrie’s game. He’s a powerplay specialist that’s mobile and can move the puck up the ice. I wouldn’t be as concerned if his SCF% was above 50%, but it’s not. It’s at 47.79%. His GF% is 43.75%, and his xG% is 45.43%. Those numbers were all above 50% last season, so life was good. That’s not the case this year, and life isn’t good.

Barrie has been averaging 16:31 per game at even strength, which is fifth among Oilers defencemen. That’s bottom pairing usage, which is exactly where he should be at even strength. There needs to be a steady player that’s better at limiting scoring chances against playing with Barrie. 

That player is typically Kris Russell when he’s healthy. Russell is right below Barrie on the SCA/60 list. His GF% is surprisingly good at 56.52%, but his xG% is 48.24% and his SCF% is only 40.12%. That tells me that he spends a lot of his time playing in his own end, and that the scoring chances that he’s allowing aren’t necessarily the most dangerous. 38% of his scoring chances against have been classified as “high danger” by Natural Stat Trick. For comparison’s sake, here’s how the entire group ranks in that category:

1. Lagesson – 29.41%
2. Russell – 38%
3. Keith – 38.79%
4. Nurse – 40.8%
5. Barrie – 42.69%
6. Bouchard – 42.86%
7. Ceci – 43.8%
8. Koekkoek – 48.86%
9. Niemelainen – 47%
10. Broberg – 47.17%

Having a lower percentage of “high danger” chances against is a sign of a player that knows how to defend the important areas of the ice. Russell is second on the team in that department. His SCF% isn’t great, but a lower percentage of those chances are “high danger” than most of his teammates.

The Barrie-Russell pairing has outscored the opposition 8-7 at even strength this year, but their xGF% is only 41.83%, and their SCF% is only 39.18. Those last two figures suggest that their positive goal share won’t last.

Look at the top of the list. Lagesson holds the crown in this category too. Lagesson doesn’t allow scoring chances as frequently as anyone else on the team, and he gives up the lowest percentage of “high danger” chances compared to any other Oilers defender. I’d put Lagesson on the third pairing with Barrie, and I’d stop sheltering him.

Duncan Keith ranks third in terms of his percentage of “high danger” chances allowed. His GF% is 48.94%, his xG% is 51.33%, and his SCF% is 48.8%. His SCA/60 is 28.27, which ranks sixth on the Oilers blueline. He has eight even strength points. 

Last year, his GF% was 44.12%, his xGF% was 41.9%, and his SCF% was 45.68%. His SCA/60 was 31.7. He had nine points at even strength in more than double the amount of ice time that it’s taken him to get eight this year. His numbers this year are far from elite, but he’s been much better than he was in Chicago last season. 

This just goes to show you that the team that a player plays on is a factor in the underlying numbers. You can’t assume that a player will be garbage on a new team because their underlying numbers were bad on their old team. The logic works the other way too.

I also want to talk about Evan Bouchard. He’s the best right-handed defenceman on the team right now. The kid has sixteen even strength points through 34 games, which is a 38 point pace over 82 games. That’s fantastic! His GF% is 51.61%, his xG% is 57.52%, and his SCF% is 52.25%. His SCA/60 is fifth in the group, but that’s okay since he’s generating enough chances at the other end to get up over a 50% SCF%. He has room to grow in terms of defending the “high danger” areas on the ice. 42.86% of his scoring chances against have been “high danger” chances. He’s also taken a lot of penalties lately, but that will get better over time.

Lastly, I want to talk about Cody Ceci. I was deeply concerned about his ability to defend when he was signed, but he’s proven to be okay so far this season. His GF% is at 43.4%, but his xG% is 50.12%, and his SCF% is 48.62%. 

Keith has missed five more games than Ceci has this season, and Ceci didn’t fare well without Keith. Ceci has been outscored 4-9 without Keith this season. That can be partly attributed to his young partners during those five games without Keith. They’ve been outscored 17-19 while playing together. That’s not ideal, but being down by two goals at this point in the season isn’t the end of the world. Their xGF% together is 49.32%, and their SCF% is 48.16%, which are also not ideal but not bad either.

These are the pairings that I’d go with assuming full health:

Nurse-Bouchard

Keith-Ceci

Lagesson-Barrie

Once again, thanks to Natural Stat Trick for the data.