September 22, 2022 by Ryan Lotsberg

It took until the morning of the first on-ice session of training camp, but the Edmonton Oilers signed Ryan McLeod to a one year, $798,000 contract on Thursday.

Getting McLeod signed for under $1 million was needed for a team that’s up against the cap, even with some relief coming. Now, we can speculate about how the opening night roster will look by letting the cap situation inform us. Here’s the breakdown of how it currently looks:

Forwards:

Kane ($5.125 M) McDavid ($12.5 M) Puljujarvi ($3 M)

Hyman ($5.5 M) Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125 M) Draisaitl ($8.5 M)

Foegele ($2.75 M) McLeod ($798 k) Yamamoto ($3.1 M)

Holloway ($925 k) Janmark ($1.25 M) Ryan ($1.25 M)

Shore ($850 k)

Defence:

Nurse ($9.25 M) Ceci ($3.25 M)

Kulak ($2.75 M) Bouchard ($863,333)

Murray ($750 k) Barrie ($4.5 M)

Broberg ($863,333) Koekkoek ($925 k)

Goalies:

Campbell ($5 M)

Skinner ($750 k)

Cap Relief:

LTIR (once season starts): Klefbom ($4.167 M), Smith ($2.2 M)

Dead Cap:

Retained: Lucic ($750 k)

Buyouts: Neal ($1,916,667), Sekera ($1.5 M)

Overage: $896 k

2022-23 Oilers Salary Cap:

Total: $91,004,333

ACSL: $82.5 M

LTIR: $6,367,000

New Upper Limit: $88,867,000

Cap Space: -$2,137,333

Active Roster: 23

These are the 23 men that are the most likely to make the opening night roster. However, the Oilers will need to shed at least $2,137,333 in cap space to become cap compliant.

The first place to look is Slater Koekkoek, who will not be with the team for the foreseeable future because he is taking care of his mental health. They could place him on LTIR or bury his contract in the minors.

Placing him on LTIR would increase the LTIR relief pool by $925,000, which would raise the new upper cap limit by $925,000. That would mean that the Oilers would only need to shed $1,212,333 in cap space.

Burying him in the minors would remove his cap hit from the books, which would save the team $925,000 against the cap. That would also mean that the Oilers would only need to shed $1,212,333 in cap space. It doesn’t matter whether Koekkoek is placed on LTIR or simply buried. The math doesn’t change.

The next obvious place to look would be at entry level contracts that are waivers exempt. There are three players that are exempt from waivers. Those are Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, and McLeod. 

The issue with sending Broberg and Holloway down is that since the Oilers will be operating in LTIR, their potential performance bonuses would count against their cap hits if they were to be called up during the year. My understanding is that’s not the case if they start the season on the roster.

Broberg’s cap hit would become $1,713,333 and Holloway’s would become $1,425,000 after adding their potential performance bonuses. Considering that the Oilers will be in LTIR and they will be operating with a short-handed roster to barely be cap compliant, sending them down would not be fiscally wise.

Ken Holland has said that Broberg will have to play his way off the team to not be in Edmonton to start the season, so Broberg is basically a lock. Holland has said that he wants Holloway playing meaningful minutes, whether it’s in the NHL or in Bakersfield. He will only make the Oilers if he can play in the top nine. I think that Holloway has a realistic shot at that kind of role due to his speed and skill.

The issue with sending McLeod down is that he’s an important player and they need him in the lineup. They can’t afford to have him in Bakersfield.

The Oilers could waive veteran players that play lower in the lineup to become cap compliant. Devin Shore is the first obvious candidate since he didn’t play in the playoffs last year. If his $850 k was to be buried in the minors, then the Oilers would only need to shed $362,333 in cap space. That’s only one more move. Burying Koekkoek and Shore would leave the Oilers at an active roster of 21 players (12 F, 7 D, and 2 G). There’s a way to shed the necessary money and still maintain that 21 man active roster.

That would be by waiving a veteran forward making over $1,125,000 and burying that player in the minors. Said forward would need to be playing at the bottom of the roster so his loss could easily be replaced. The options there would be Derek Ryan and Mattias Janmark.

Janmark is younger and faster than Ryan. Janmark’s production barely outpaced Ryan’s last season. Ryan is a right-hand shot that can play centre and win draws on the right side of the ice in his own zone. Both are important players to the Oilers bottom six. I could foresee a scenario where they both get waived at different points in the season because being waived then buried allows a player to move up and down between the NHL and the AHL without going through waivers again for thirty days.

Burying one of Janmark or Ryan would save the Oilers $1,125,000 against the cap, which would bring them under the cap by $762,667. If they want to have a 21 man active roster and have twelve forwards available to them, then they could bring up a player making near the league minimum. They have Tyler Benson, Greg McKegg, and Brad Malone under contract in that range. McKegg and Malone’s cap hits are $762,500. Having either one of them up in this scenario would put the Oilers $167 under the cap.

This scenario is why Jake Virtanen has a chance of making the Oilers. Ryan was moved to right wing last season. The Oilers are already short at right wing, and burying Ryan would make that issue worse. Virtanen would likely sign for the league minimum. Virtanen would just have to outplay Benson, McKegg, and Malone at camp to potentially earn a contract. There are alternatives to Virtanen to fill the right wing spots on the roster, but this is a plausible scenario.

Based on all of this information, here is what I think the Oilers roster will look like coming out of camp:

Forwards:

Kane ($5.125 M) McDavid ($12.5 M) Draisaitl ($8.5 M)

Hyman ($5.5 M) Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125 M) Puljujarvi ($3 M)

Holloway ($925 k) McLeod ($798 k) Yamamoto ($3.1 M)

Janmark ($1.25 M) Malone ($762 k) Foegele ($2.75 M) 

Defence:

Nurse ($9.25 M) Ceci ($3.25 M)

Kulak ($2.75 M) Bouchard ($863,333)

Murray ($750 k) Barrie ($4.5 M)

Broberg ($863,333)

Goalies:

Campbell ($5 M)

Skinner ($750 k)

Cap Relief:

Buried: Ryan ($125 k)

LTIR (once season starts): Klefbom ($4.167 M), Smith ($2.2 M)

Dead Cap:

Retained: Lucic ($750 k)

Buyouts: Neal ($1,916,667), Sekera ($1.5 M)

Overage: $896 k

2022-23 Oilers Salary Cap:

Total: $88,866,833

ACSL: $82.5 M

LTIR: $6,367,000

New Upper Limit: $88,867,000

Cap Space: $167

Active Roster: 21

I think Head Coach Jay Woodcroft will have to shift at least one player to right wing. Leon Draisaitl can produce big numbers regardless of where he plays. Nugent-Hopkins can fill his spot as the second line centre. Warren Foegele can play the off-wing as he did at times with the Carolina Hurricanes. Derek Ryan can play right wing in a pinch as well.

I still think that the Oilers would be better off to trade a player like Foegele to give them some cap flexibility throughout the year, but they don’t need to trade anyone to become cap compliant to start the season.

Enjoy training camp everyone! The first pre-season game is on Sunday against the Winnipeg Jets at 4 PM at Rogers Place.