March 11, 2023 by Josh Boulton

Off the heels of a trip to the 2022 Western Conference Final, this year’s edition of the Edmonton Oilers are being recognized as a team that has the potential for another deep playoff run.

Of course, some of that is attributed to the “fact” that the Oilers in an weaker division, and therefore would have an easier path out of the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup playoff. I’m not entirely sure that’s the case. I think they may even have the toughest path of all. I mean, let’s look at the facts here. The Oilers have been on a bit of a heater since early January, accumulating a record of 15-4-5 in their last 24 games. Of note, only four of those games were against teams in their own division (Anaheim Ducks, San Jose Sharks, Vegas Golden Knights, and Seattle Kraken).

Five others were against the other Western Conference division, the Central, and 15 were against Eastern Conference opponents. Now, it is true only 11 of those games were against teams currently holding a playoff spot. But in those contests, the Oilers went 7-2-2, including regulation wins against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs and league-leading Boston Bruins, so it’s not like they have been milking all their points from bottom-dwellers, and definitely not just from taking advantage of being in a “weaker” division.

And as further evidence, the Oilers aren’t going to be strolling carefree through the first two rounds, look at where they are in the standings. On January 11, 24 games ago, the Oilers were tied with the Calgary Flames for fourth spot in the Pacific Division, sitting in a wild-card playoff spot behind the first-place Golden Knights, the second-place Los Angeles Kings and the third-place Kraken. Keep in mind, I just told you that since then they’ve only had four regulation losses and racked up 35 of a possible 48 points over 24 games. However, a 15-4-5 run later, the Oilers still sit in the Pacific Division’s fourth spot, still in a wild-card placement behind the Golden Knights, Kings and Kraken.

In fact, on January 11 the Golden Knights and Kings were tied for first and the Kraken were four points back of them. Today, the Golden Knights and Kings are tied for first, and the Kraken are four points back of them. The top three is virtually unchanged. For a little bit of perspective, the games played per team were a little unbalanced two months ago, and now, they’re almost perfectly even. Additionally, the Oilers back then were a full nine points out of first place, and five points behind the Kraken for the final divisional seed.

By mid-March they’ve pulled to within four points of first place in the Pacific, and they’re technically tied with the Kraken at 80 points, so they have gained some good ground. But remember they’ve had to go 15-4-5 to do it. What this means is all three of the Golden Knights, Kings and Kraken have been winning at almost as good a clip as the Oilers over a significant span of time.

And remember, it’s not because they’re playing each other. Here’s how the other Pacific Division leaders have fared since January 11th:

Vegas Golden Knights 23 games played (12-7-2):

Five games played within the Pacific

Six games against the Central12 games against the Eastern Conference

Los Angeles Kings 22 games played (14-6-2)

Three games within the Pacific

Seven games against the Central

12 games against the Eastern Conference

Seattle Kraken 25 games played (13-10-2)

Four games within the Pacific

Eight games against the Central

13 games against the Eastern Conference

As impressive as the Oilers have been, the top three Pacific Division rivals have just three, one, and two fewer regulation losses in the last two months respectively. The Golden Knights and the Kings are both 10-2-2 in their last 14 games, while the Kraken are 8-5-1 (the Oilers are 7-4-3). The Pacific is currently the only division with all of its top four teams having at least 80 points, and the only one with a tiny difference of four points between the first and last playoff teams within (Central – eight points, Metropolitan – 20 points, Atlantic – 21 points).

Some hockey observers think teams in the Pacific have the easiest path to the Conference Final because of their division, but the reality is it’s the most balanced division of them all. If the playoffs started today, the Oilers wouldn’t even be playing a divisional opponent. As the first wild-card seed they would be matched up against the Central Division-leading Dallas Stars, who are only three points better than the Oilers overall. That would statistically be ever so slightly more favourable than having to stay within the Pacific and play Western Conference leading Vegas (four points better).

Look at it from Vegas’s point of view: if Dallas is able to pull ahead and take the top seed, Vegas would go from playing the Central Division Winnipeg Jets in round one who are currently nine points behind Vegas, to having to play one of three teams in their own division who are all within four points of them. It’s a scenario where as a Pacific Division team you might finish fourth and be happy about it and you might finish as a division champion and regret it.

There are fans who believe the Toronto Maple Leafs have it bad finishing in the top three every year and having to face a Stanley Cup contender as the Tampa Bay Lightning, yet when the same scenario happens in the Pacific it’s somehow an advantage. Moreover, it’s not just happening for the middle two teams in the Pacific. It’s happening to all four playoff seeds. No team in the Western Conference is getting the comparatively statistically easy first-round matchups the Boston Bruins, and either the Carolina Hurricanes or New Jersey Devils will have based on point spread. Not by a long shot.

And even the second-round opponents of the top Eastern teams potentially won’t be as close to them in the standings as the second-round battles we could see in the Western Conference, especially in the Pacific Division. So, no, playing in the Pacific Division is the free ticket it’s made out to be.