Jackson’s Potential Impact on the Oilers: Part Three – Professional Scouting and Analytics
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How do you accurately measure how offensively dominate an NHL player is/was? Is it as simple as the number of points produced by the player? But how is that a fair determination when NHL regular seasons have varied in length throughout its 105 seasons of play?
Since its inaugural season of 1917-18, the NHL has varied from an 18 games per team schedule in 1918-19 to 84 games per team in the 1992-93 and 1993-94 seasons. Simple mathematics dictate that you are statistically more likely to accumulate more points over more games played. Cy Denneny of the 1923-24 Ottawa Senators, would have undoubtedly scored more than his league-leading 24 points in an 80-plus-game season as opposed to his 24 games, and Wayne Gretzky would have presumedly not scored 215 points in the 18-game 1918-19 season, as he did in the 80-game season of 1985-86 with the Edmonton Oilers.
Let’s backtrack a little and determine first what we mean by “dominant”. The Oxford dictionary has the primary meaning of “dominant” defined as “most important, powerful, or influential”. Hmm… that sounds a little extreme. Not sure that pertains really to how we’re using it in the hockey world. Although you could make a case that the most offensively dominate player can be quite influential, I would argue that they aren’t necessarily the most important or most powerful player. What else does Oxford say? There must be a secondary definition….let’s see…AH, here we go. “Of a high place or object, overlooking others.” Now THAT’S more like it.
Of a high place…overlooking others? It doesn’t get any higher than number one, so for the sake of this article, I’ll be looking at the players that finished number one in the league in points each season, a.k.a. produced the most offence in that particular season. To do this, I am eliminating points per game (P/GP) as a determining factor. The P/GP shows us how much offence a player ostensibly produces each game he plays. For example, in the 2010-11 season, Sidney Crosby led the NHL with a 1.61 P/GP but only played 41 games for his Pittsburgh Penguins due to injury, which resulted in a total of 66 points. That same season, Daniel Sedin had a 1.27 P/GP, but played all 82 games for the Vancouver Canucks, and finished with a league-leading 104 total points. Sedin produced more overall offence that season than Crosby.
So, if the leading scorer is considered the top offensive player of each season, what do we look at next to ascertain a dominance factor? Points differential? The points gap between the leading scorer and the next guy? A strong argument could be made for that to be the defining factor of dominance. But I invite you to hearken back to the beginning of this article where I made mention of season lengths. Just as it is more likely to score more points over more games, it is also more likely to create bigger gaps. Example: 1×48 =48, 1.5×48=72, Gap=24. 1×82=82, 1.5×82=123, Gap=41. In fact, the 15 biggest points gaps between the number one and number two scorers are all from seasons that had teams playing a minimum of 78 games each.
Top 10 offensively dominated seasons using points gap percentage (P/GP):
- 41%, 1986-87, Wayne Gretzky, Edmonton Oilers
- 39%, 1983-84, Wayne Gretzky, Edmonton Oilers
- 35%, 1984-85, Wayne Gretzky, Edmonton Oilers
- 34%, 1985-86, Wayne Gretzky, Edmonton Oilers
- 31%, 1981-82, Wayne Gretzky, Edmonton Oilers
- 27%, 1982-83, Wayne Gretzky, Edmonton Oilers
- 27%, 1940-41, Bill Cowley, Boston Bruins
- 25%, 1952-53, Gordie Howe, Detroit Red Wings
- 25%, 1950-51, Gordie Howe, Detroit Red Wings
- 24%, 1927-28, Howie Morenz, Montreal Canadiens
When one thinks of all time offensively dominate NHL players, Wayne Gretzky, NHL’s all time leading scorer, is usually, and rightfully, the first name mentioned. It comes as no surprise that he’s at the top of this list too. Gretzky led the NHL in points 10 times. Six of those seasons are the most offensively dominate seasons by a player. Absolutely incredible!
The whole point of this article was to try and determine just how offensively dominate is McDavid, the generational phenom of today. For starters, No. 97 has led the league in points in five of the last seven seasons. That hasn’t happened since Jaromir Jagr accomplished the same feat from 1994-95 to 2000-01 (Although, more accurately, Jagr and Eric Lindros were tied with 70 points in 1994-95. The NHL recognized Jagr as the points leader because he had scored more goals than Lindros). The highest PGP in those five seasons for the Oilers superstar was 20%, which he accomplished twice in 2020-21 and 2022-23. Coincidentally, teammate Leon Draisaitl was the runner up in both those seasons. Those 20% seasons put McDavid tied for 11th on the all time offensively dominated seasons list with Gretzky (1990-91 Kings), Esposito (1972-73 Bruins), Hull (1965-66 Blackhawks), and Howe (1951-52 Red Wings). Elite company is an understatement.
That takes care of, more or less, the offense domination in a season. Now, what about the overall picture? Connor McDavid is, undoubtedly the most offensively dominating player of the last 20-plus years. After eight seasons of No. 97 magic, where does he rank amongst the most dominant offense producers of all time? I decided to determine this by merely adding together each player’s P/GPs of when he led the league in points. Example number one: Bryan Trottier led the league in points one time. In 1978-79, the New York Islander finished with a 3% P/GP. Trottier’s total score is three. Example number two: Martin St. Louis of the Tampa Bay Lightning, led the league in offense on two occasions. In 2003-04 he finished with a PGP of 7% and in 2012-13 his PGP was 5%. Combining the two gives him a score of 12. I used this formula on all 51 players that led a season in offense. Interestingly, there have been three seasons where there was a tie at the top of the points leaderboard (1961-62, 1979-80, 1994-95). For this exercise, I made two top 10 lists. This first one is a list using just a player’s total P/GP.
Top 10 total P/GP:
- 262 – Wayne Gretzky, Edmonton Oilers/Los Angeles Kings
- 97 – Gordie Howe, Detroit Red Wings
- 71 – Phil Esposito, Boston Bruins
- 64 – Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
- 58 – Mario Lemieux, Pittsburgh Penguins
- 31 – Jaromir Jagr, Pittsburgh Penguins
- 30 – Howie Morenz, Montreal Canadiens
- 30 – Charlie Conacher, Toronto Maple Leafs
- 28 – Stan Mikita, Chicago Blackhawks
- 27 – Bill Cowley, Boston Bruins
The entire point of this article is to try and determine just how offensively dominate is McDavid, the generational phenom of today. For starters, No. 97 has led the league in points in five of the last seven seasons. That hasn’t happened since Jaromir Jagr accomplished the same feat from 1994-95 to 2000-01. Although, more accurately, Jagr and Eric Lindros were tied with 70 points in 1994-95. The NHL recognized Jagr as the points leader because he had scored more goals than Lindros. The highest P/GP in those five seasons for the Oilers superstar was 20%, which he accomplished twice in 2020-21 and 2022-23. Coincidentally, teammate Leon Draisaitl was the runner up in both those seasons. Those 20% seasons put McDavid tied for 11th on the all time offensively dominated seasons list with Gretzky (1990-91 Kings), Esposito (1972-73 Bruins), Hull (1965-66 Blackhawks), and Howe (1951-52 Red Wings). Elite company is an understatement.
Related: Connor McDavid matches NHL record for most awards in one season
That takes care of, more or less, the offense domination in a season. Now, what about the overall picture? Connor McDavid is undoubtedly the most offensively dominating player of the last 20-plus years. After eight seasons of No. 97 magic, where does he rank amongst the most dominant offense producers of all time? I decided to determine this by merely adding together each player’s P/GPs of when he led the league in points. Example number one: Bryan Trottier led the league in points one time. In 1978-79, the New York Islander finished with a 3% PGP. Trottier’s total score is three. Example number two: Martin St. Louis of the Tampa Bay Lightning, led the league in offense on two occasions. In 2003-04 he finished with a P/GP of 7% and in 2012-13 his P/GP was 5%. Combining the two gives him a score of 12. I used this formula on all 51 players that led a season in offense. Interestingly, there have been three seasons where there was a tie at the top of the points leaderboard (1961-62, 1979-80, 1994-95). For this exercise, I made two top 10 lists. This first one is a list using just a player’s total P/GP.
Top 10 total P/GP:
- 262 – Wayne Gretzky, Edmonton Oilers/Los Angeles Kings
- 97 – Gordie Howe, Detroit Red Wings
- 71 – Phil Esposito, Boston Bruins
- 64 – Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
- 58 – Mario Lemieux, Pittsburgh Penguins
- 31 – Jaromir Jagr, Pittsburgh Penguins
- 30 – Howie Morenz, Montreal Canadiens
- 30 – Charlie Conacher, Toronto Maple Leafs
- 28 – Stan Mikita, Chicago Blackhawks
- 27 – Bill Cowley, Boston Bruins
The next list is where I gave more weight to how many times a player led the league in offense, believing that indicates more consistency in being a top offence generator, and used their total PGP as a tie breaker. I’m calling this one my definitive list.
Bob’s Definitive Top 10 List of the Most Offensively Dominate Players of All Time:
- Wayne Gretzky, 10x for 262 P/GP, Edmonton Oilers/Los Angeles Kings
- Gordie Howe, 6x for 97 P/GP, Detroit Red Wings
- Mario Lemieux, 6x for 58 P/GP, Pittsburgh Penguins
- Phil Esposito, 5x for 72 P/GP, Boston Bruins
- Connor McDavid, 5x for 64 P/GP, Edmonton Oilers
- Jaromir Jagr, 5x for 31 P/GP, Pittsburgh Penguins
- Stan Mikita, 4x for 28 P/GP, Chicago Blackhawks
- Guy Lafleur, 3x for 22 P/GP, Montreal Canadiens
- Bobby Hull, 3x for 21 P/GP, Chicago Blackhawks
- Howie Morenz, 2x for 30 P/GP, Montreal Canadiens
- Charlie Conacher, 2x for 30 P/GP, Toronto Maple Leafs
Regardless of which list you look at, there are a couple of things worth noting. First of all, WAYNE GRETZKY!!! There isn’t a superlative that hasn’t been used yet to describe the offensive mastery of No. 99. There is dominant, and then there’s Gretzky. Secondly, McDavid is the only player on either of these lists that has played less than 12 seasons in the NHL. The five time Art Ross Trophy winner has catapulted his name up amongst the all time greats, in just eight seasons. There are 12 different players scattered across both lists. 10 of which are in the Hockey Hall of Fame, one who will be shortly after he officially retires (Jagr), and McDavid. It is very possible that he could jump past Esposito and Lemieux at the end of the 2023-24 season and sit in third place on the definitive list. Regardless of what you think about No. 97, we should be truly grateful that we live in the McDavid era. What we are privileged to witness from the Oiler captain for six to eight months every year, should not be taken for granted. We are seeing a legend in the making and a player that we will tell future generations about that we got to watch play.
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