August 29, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

Sportsnet’s Mark Spector conducted a phone interview with Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor McDavid, and released an article about it on August 23. The intriguing content from the interview was McDavid’s response when asked how new CEO Jeff Jackson might impact his decision to re-sign with the Oilers after his contract expires in 2026.

This was McDavid’s response:

“I love playing in Edmonton, and I really feel at home there. Lauren loves being in Edmonton. There are a lot – a lot — of things that check the boxes for us in Edmonton. We’re super comfortable there, but with that all being said, it’s three years down the road. We’ve got to kind of see where our lives are at and kind of go from there. I don’t say that to raise eyebrows or cause panic. It’s just the way that it is, but I love playing in Edmonton, I’m 100 percent committed to winning in Edmonton with this group… and we’re gonna see it through.”

Whether he intended it or not, his comment about needing to see where things are three years from now did raise eyebrows and cause panic. This panic has been a real thing for Oilers fans for many years. Afterall, this fanbase has a massive scar from losing Wayne Gretzky at the age of 27. Gretzky had one year left on his contract at the time of the trade, and the Oilers couldn’t pay him what he felt he was worth.

Katz has the money to pay McDavid whatever he needs. There’s a limit on how much a team can spend on players, and there’s a limit to how much of the salary cap can be dedicated to one player; so it’s not like McDavid can ask for an amount of money that would bankrupt the team. Katz has a history of spending up to the cap and beyond in recent LTIR years, so I have full confidence that Katz will be able and willing to pay for McDavid in 2026.

One could interpret McDavid’s comment about being committed to winning with “this group” to mean that he wants to win with the current players under contract; but it could also mean that he wants to win with the core players that are signed beyond McDavid’s current contract expiry date like Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and potentially his best pal Leon Draisaitl.

I’m not worried about McDavid’s trepidatious comment. It would be unwise for McDavid to come out and say that he will re-sign with the Oilers three years before his contract expires. That would give the team leverage in any sort of negotiation. It would also make him look absolutely terrible in the public eye if he were to say that he will re-sign with the Oilers and then decide to sign elsewhere.

Related: Connor McDavid matches NHL record for most awards in one season

Let’s analyze the situation beyond Wednesday’s comments. McDavid could leave the team via trade or via unrestricted free agency. I’ll analyze the likelihood of McDavid walking away as a free agent in part two of this series, but for now I’ll focus on the potential of him asking for a trade.

Players do ask for trades in the NHL, but it’s exceedingly rare that high profile players ask for trades. Eric Lindros famously told the Quebec Nordiques that he wouldn’t play for them if they drafted him first overall in the 1991 NHL Draft. They drafted him and traded him to Philadelphia in a blockbuster deal involving Peter Forsberg.

Patrick Roy pulled himself out of a game versus the Detroit Red Wings in which he was left in net for nine goals against, all of which had occurred by the midway mark of the second period. Four days later, Roy was shipped to the Colorado Avalanche.

Lindros, Roy, and Gretzky are the only three extremely high profile NHL players that have requested trades in or prior to their prime years in the modern era, and Lindros hadn’t even played a game yet when his request was made.

Vladimir Tarasenko is the most recent example of an impactful NHL player asking for a trade away from the team that drafted him. He asked for a trade because he was upset about the way the St. Louis Blues handled his shoulder injuries. Jack Eichel’s dispute with the Buffalo Sabres over his neck surgery was well documented. McDavid has recovered from a broken collar bone and a potentially disastrous knee injury without conflict with the Oilers organization.

Jacob Chychrun was granted a trade away from the lowly Arizona Coyotes organization last season. There’s no such issue in Edmonton. The Oilers are legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.

Matthew Tkachuk requested a trade last summer after informing the Calgary Flames that he wouldn’t be re-signing with them. He’s an American player that wanted to play in the United States. McDavid is a Canadian player that gets paid in US dollars and that’s used to Canadian winters; so the draw of playing in the States is minimal… unless he’s desperate for warmer weather.

Pierre Luc Dubois requested a trade out of Columbus in 2021, and he denied requesting a trade out of Winnipeg this year despite a report from Pierre LeBrun that said otherwise. Dubois was quiet about his reasoning for wanting out of Columbus, but it was clear that he wasn’t happy with his lot in life there. There’s no factual evidence that suggests McDavid is unhappy in Edmonton.

Pierre-Luc Dubois is seeking a trade from the Jets, per TSN Hockey Insider Pierre LeBrun. pic.twitter.com/QZHVpGWzMM

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) June 8, 2023

Jonathan Drouin asked the Tampa Bay Lightning for a trade in November of 2015. He wanted more playing time. McDavid isn’t running short on playing time in Edmonton.

While all of these are great players, they don’t have McDavid’s caché. Most of these players were stars on their teams, and none were considered the face of the league like McDavid is currently.

If a legacy player is to be traded, it’s likely to be in their mid-thirties so they can chase championships. Patrick Kane was traded to the New York Rangers in February because he wasn’t going to re-sign with the rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks. Speaking of the Blackhawks, Duncan Keith was traded to the Oilers in 2021 for his final NHL season. They also traded Chris Chelios to the Detroit Red Wings in 1998, and he won a Stanley Cup there that year. 

Related: Where does Connor McDavid’s dominance rank compared to the all-time greats?

Jarome Iginla was traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2013. Ray Bourque was traded to the Colorado Avalanche at the 2000 NHL trade deadline, and he won a Stanley Cup there the next season. Rob Blake was traded to the Avalanche at the 2001 deadline and also won his first Stanley Cup that year. I’m sure there are lots of other examples, but the point stands that legacy players like McDavid tend to stay with their teams until at least their mid-thirties.

There are times where business gets in the way and teams have to make difficult decisions. Erik Karlsson was traded to the San Jose Sharks in 2018. The Ottawa Senators traded another important player, Mark Stone, a year later. Those trades happened in part because the Senators were embarking on a rebuild and they chose to trade their prime assets at peak value. Another recent example of such a trade was the Timo Meier trade. It’s the Sharks’ turn to rebuild, and they traded Meier to get assets for their rebuild. The Oilers aren’t heading into a rebuild, so they wouldn’t choose to trade McDavid to aid a rebuild.

Basically, the point is that McDavid asking for a trade is EXTREMELY unlikely. If McDavid were to decide against re-signing early enough, then the Oilers might consider trading him to avoid losing him for nothing; but once again, that scenario is unlikely. Look out for part two of this series where I’ll examine the likelihood of McDavid walking away in free agency.