October 1, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

There aren’t many battles to watch at Edmonton Oilers camp heading into the 2023-24 season. The salary cap situation dictates that the team will only have 21 players on the active roster. 20 of those spots are taken. There are four players in the race for the final roster spot. Adam Erne, Rapheal Lavoie, Lane Pederson, and Brandon Sutter are battling it out for the last spot in the forward group. Two players in particular have nosed ahead of the others in my opinion.

I’ve been keeping track of each player’s stats in each game of the preseason. Yes, I’m a giant nerd; but there’s really not much else to focus on in this camp! Here are the preseason totals through the team’s first five games. Note that Pederson has played in four games, while the others have each played in three.

	Points	Shots	Hits	Blocks	GF%	xGF%	CF%	HDCF%
Erne	1	1	4	3	20% (1-4)	36.02%	40.98% (25-36)	35.71% (5-9)
Lavoie	1	9	5	4	50% (1-1)	47.43%	41.54% (27-38)	50% (4-4)
Pederson (4GP)	0	9	8	2	–	59.97%	52.27% (46-42)	63.64% (7-4)
Sutter	1	5	1	2	50% (1-1)	43.96%	46.43% (13-15)	57.14% (4-3)

Erne needed to hit his way onto the team, and Pederson has doubled his hit total. Pederson isn’t noted as being a physical player, whereas that was the expectation for Erne. The goal he scored on Saturday night against the Vancouver Canucks should help his case, but I think he has done the least of these four players.

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Sutter had a promising start, but the wheels appear to be falling off quickly. All five of his shots came in his first game last Sunday against the Winnipeg Jets. I was shocked to see that he had five shots in that game. I went to that game and he didn’t appear to have done much aside from keeping some pucks alive along the wall. Sutter has been on the ice for two goals against on the penalty kill, and he took a terrible tripping penalty on Elias Pettersson that led to a five-on-three goal against. He doesn’t look fast out there, but he seems to get into the right positions most of the time. He’s winning faceoffs though, which is important for him. Sutter is going to have to put together some solid efforts in the coming week to keep himself in the conversation.

"I thought the guys had some good moments, some moments we are going to have to clean up & get better from."

Coach Woodcroft shares his observations from tonight’s pre-season defeat. @Enterprise | #LetsGoOilers pic.twitter.com/ZBvYGsJJZf

— Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) October 1, 2023

Lane Pederson has been the best of the four players. He’s the only one of the four to have values at 50% or more in the metrics I’ve analyzed here. His expected goals rate pushing 60% and his high danger scoring chance percentage being over 60% are impressive. Five of Pederson’s nine shots came in the opening game against Winnipeg, but he’s been consistently piling up the hits. He’s even been good in the circle. His faceoff percentage has only been below 50% in one game. Pederson is doing exactly what you would want a fourth line centre to do for your team. 

However, there’s a caveat to this. Pederson has essentially acted as a place filler for Ryan McLeod in this camp. He has skated with Warren Foegele and Derek Ryan throughout camp, which is where McLeod would typically play. Pederson has also been getting a lot of powerplay time that might otherwise be going to McLeod. I’m not sure if Pederson is getting that powerplay time because head coach Jay Woodcroft wants to use him on the second powerplay unit for the Oilers, or if he wants Pederson to get a feel for what the team likes to do on the powerplay so he can play big powerplay minutes in Bakersfield. I’ll be curious to see where Pederson gets slotted once McLeod starts skating again.

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Pederson is the more accomplished player at the professional level, but I’m going to make an argument for Lavoie here. He has just as many shots as Pederson does despite playing 19:21 less minutes and one fewer game. Pederson has been getting plenty of powerplay minutes, 17:01 compared to Lavoie’s 9:33. Pederson has five shots on the powerplay compared to one for Lavoie. That means that Lavoie is outshooting Pederson 8-4 at even strength… in 19:21 less ice time! The role that these two are competing for is predominantly a five on five role, so this even strength shot advantage for Lavoie could become a factor.

Lavoie’s Corsi and expected goals for percentage are lower than Pederson’s. Lavoie has played all three of his games on the road in games where the Oilers dressed the far less experienced lineup. Pederson has played in two of those games, but he’s also played in two home games with strong lineups. That plays a role in the numbers.

My observation of Lavoie is that his defensive details are solid, which is something he talked about earlier in the training camp. When Tony Brar asked Lavoie what he needs to do to make the team, Lavoie said that he needs to “be very reliable defensively. You know I’m probably not going to be a top six guy here, so I’ve got to bring something to the table, and if that’s being reliable defensively, and you know, being trustworthy on the ice, then that’s what it’s going to be.” Lavoie closes on puck carriers quickly. He doesn’t always get there, but he puts pressure on opponents with his length and speed.

Let’s not forget that he scored a beautiful goal on a tremendous NHL goaltender on Saturday night. His goal against Thatcher Demko was an absolute snipe far side across his body. That‘s a tough shot to make, and Lavoie found space there. Lavoie is doing what he needs to do to make the team. Whether he will or not remains to be seen.

These players have three games left to showcase themselves to the coaching staff. The Oilers will visit the Seattle Kraken on Monday night, then host the Calgary Flames on Wednesday night and the Kraken on Friday night. The home games will likely closely resemble the regular season roster, so we’ll get a better sense of what these players can do in the role they’re trying to earn in camp.