November 5, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

There’s no sugar coating it. The first ten games of the 2023-24 season have been awful for the Edmonton Oilers. They finished their first ten games with a record of 2-7-1. That’s tied with the 1993-94 Oilers for the second worst start in franchise history, only worse than the 1-8-1 start in 1992-93. They’re winless at Rogers Place. Their only home win came in the Heritage Classic against the Calgary Flames, who have also been terrible to start the season. They’ve allowed seven or more goals in two games, and four or more in six games.

Rather than sitting here and continuing to beat a dead horse with all that is going wrong for the Oilers, I’m looking back to the last couple of seasons where the Oilers had similar cold streaks.

Let’s start with 2021-22 (104 points, 2nd in Pacific):

December 3, 2021 – January 20, 2022: 2-11-2 

February 20 – March 7, 2022: 2-5-1 

Corresponding hot stretches:

October 13 – November 5, 2021: 9-1 

February 11 – February 19, 2022: 5-0 

March 9 – March 19, 2022: 5-0 

March 28 – April 7, 2022: 6-0 

How about 2022-23 (109 points, 2nd in Pacific):

November 3 – Nov 23, 2022: 3-7-0

January 25 – February 19, 2023: 5-1-7 

Corresponding hot stretches:

October 24 – November 1, 2022: 5-0 

January 11 – February 11, 2023: 9-0-2 

March 14 – April 13, 2023: 14-0-1

The 3-7-0 stretch came in games eleven through twenty for the Oilers after a 7-3 start and immediately on the tail of a five game winning streak.

If this shows us anything, it’s that the Oilers are a streaky team. When things are going well, they go really well. When it rains, it pours.

The good news is that the losing streaks have been outnumbered by the winning streaks, and the Oilers still managed to finish second in the division in both seasons. 

Related: Oilers Glaring Individual Mistakes

The Oilers have been through these types of streaks before. Nothing goes right. Players make stupid mistakes. Every mistake seemingly ends up in the back of their net. Goalies can’t make saves when they need them. The offence runs dry. It’s beyond frustrating to watch, and I’m sure the players feel the frustration far more than any of us fans ever could. It feels hopeless when things are going like this. You know the players are trying and they’re working, and everyone knows they’re capable of more, including them. It’s just not happening for them right now.

There were two tough stretches in 2021-22. The lengthiest ended three games before Evander Kane came to town. They had won three straight games before Kane arrived, so they did pull themselves out of their funk before Kane arrived. They went 2-2-1 in Kane’s first five games, and then Dave Tippett was fired and replaced by current head coach Jay Woodcroft. I can’t deny that Kane improved the team, but they did also suffer a 2-5-1 stretch with him on the team and after Woodcroft was named coach. 

Last season, the Oilers called up Klim Kostin in the midst of their November cold streak. Kostin was involved in five of those ten games, and the team went 2-3 in that stretch. He didn’t get a point in his first seven games with the Oilers. Kostin didn’t provide immediate dividends and can’t be credited with pulling the team out of their funk; but like Kane, he did improve the team over time.

The other poor stretch from the Oilers in 2022-23 ended when Mattias Ekholm was acquired. They went 3-1-5, then won two games and lost two games, then made the Ekholm trade. The rest is history. Ekholm played a big role in the team’s hot run down the stretch.

The Ekholm trade is the only action that put a direct halt to a cold streak in the last two seasons, unless you want to count 2-2-1 as a cold streak prior to the coaching change. However, there was only one cold streak that didn’t result in a change of some kind, even if it came a handful of games after the streak ended.

The best case scenario for the Oilers is that this cold streak mirrors the one from last November. They called up Kostin and righted the ship shortly afterwards. The Oilers recalled Sam Gagner and Raphael Lavoie last week. Gagner scored two goals in his season debut, while Lavoie had an uneventful ten minutes of ice time in his NHL debut. Lavoie most closely mirrors Kostin with his age, size, and shot. Hopefully Lavoie can make a similar impact to what Kostin made last year.

I wouldn’t rule out any other changes from happening though. Woodcroft’s seat has to be getting warm if it isn’t hot. GM Ken Holland is in the last year of his contract, and there’s a new CEO of Hockey Operations in town. A trade will be difficult to execute with so many teams struggling with the salary cap, but it isn’t impossible to make trades. Jack Campbell has struggled, and his $5 million could be better spent. Ryan McLeod isn’t giving the Oilers value for his $2.1 million right now. Dylan Holloway has done some things well, but the production isn’t there right now. Philip Broberg hasn’t taken a step forward this year, and he was just sent down to the Bakersfield Condors last week.

Bob Stauffer laid out a fair point during Saturday’s broadcast of the game against the Nashville Predators. The Oilers started 16-5 in 2021-22, but the underlying numbers suggested that level of play was unsustainable. They were getting wins on the strength of their powerplay, their superstars, and goaltending. This year, the numbers are reversed. The record is poor, but they are at or near the top of the league in many underlying metrics. If the record was unsustainable in 2021-22, then this year’s record is unsustainable as well.

Stay tuned, Oilers fans. We know the team is streaky. A hot streak will come at some point. If recent history has shown us anything, it’s that multiple hot streaks are coming. There could also be some change coming in the very near future. Regardless, the situation in Edmonton right now is well worth watching.