March 5, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

This is the fourth part of my series on players the Edmonton Oilers might have to trade to accommodate new players prior to Friday’s trade deadline. Warren Foegele, Dylan Holloway, and Cody Ceci were the subjects of the first three pieces of this series. Now, it’s Brett Kulak’s turn.

Related: To Trade or Not to Trade: Cody Ceci

I can’t say a single bad thing about Kulak’s game. He’s exactly what you want in a third pairing defenceman. He skates well and plays low event hockey. He and Vincent Desharnais have the seventh best expected goals percentage (57.8%) among defensive pairings to play a minimum of 200 minutes at five on five this season according to Moneypuck. Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm are first in that category, by the way.

Anyway, Kulak has had positive results in goal share and expected goals percentage since he arrived in Edmonton at the 2022 trade deadline. He has also raised his game in the playoffs in the last two seasons. His goal share and expected goals percentages have both increased in the playoffs during both of the playoff runs that has had with the Oilers.

Why am I bringing his name up in a conversation about potential trade deadline losses then? Having Kulak as a third pairing defenceman is a luxury that the Oilers might not be able to afford going forward.

The Oilers have $74,416,667 in salary cap spending committed for next season. That includes fourteen players (including Kulak and the full value of Jack Campbell’s contract) and the $1,916,667 that is still on the books for the James Neal buyout. Connor Brown earned a $3.225 million performance bonus for playing in ten games this season. Corey Perry can earn up to $325,000 in performance bonuses based on his playing ten games and how far the Oilers go in the playoffs. Any amount of those performance bonuses that can’t be squeezed in under the cap this year will carry over to next year’s cap hit. That means that the Oilers will have a performance bonus carryover at a maximum value of $3.55 million. 

Related: Oilers 2024 Trade Deadline Preview

That brings the cap hit committed for next year up to $77,966,667 with only fourteen players signed. The cap is expected to go up to $87.7 million next season according to the Athletic. That would leave the Oilers with $9,733,333 to fill seven to nine roster spots. One of those spots will need to be a top or middle six forward. Turning Kulak into a cheaper defenceman would certainly help the cause from a cap perspective.

That’s next year’s problem, so why would the Oilers trade Kulak now? According to PuckPedia, the Oilers can add $2.37 million in annual cap hit at Friday’s trade deadline. The Oilers have big dreams of getting a top six forward, they have interest in depth forwards and depth defencemen, and they were in on Chris Tanev before he got traded. If they want to make more than one or two little trades, then they will have to get creative to find cap space.

Example of cap space accruing:

Today, #LetsGoOilers can fit $1.81M of annual cap hit.
If they wait until the deadline, that increases to $2.37M.

Waiting 13 more days allows them to add $560K more annual cap hit.https://t.co/Yq0s2KIqV4

— PuckPedia (@PuckPedia) February 24, 2024

If Kulak’s $2.75 million cap hit was to turn into two depth defencemen, then the Oilers could use that $2.37 million on forwards and/or an upgrade in the top four. They will have addressed the need for added defensive depth without spending any more on the cap. They could even potentially gain cap space by turning Kulak into two cheaper defencemen.

The Oilers aren’t exactly flush with prospects and draft picks after multiple years of buying at the trade deadline. Kulak is a dependable defenceman with a year left on his contract after this one. Cost certainty has value in today’s flat cap world. The Oilers could get assets for Kulak which could then be used in other trades to address other needs.

Related: To Trade or Not to Trade: Dylan Holloway

The Oilers would undoubtedly lose any trade where they move Kulak out. The only reason that I would even think about trading Kulak is if it would allow the team to facilitate a trade for a top six forward or an upgrade in the top four on defence. Kulak is a luxury to have on the third pair. While nice to have, a third pairing defenceman is not a priority over a top six forward or a top four defenceman.

The other reason to consider moving Kulak is the future of Philip Broberg. Broberg expressed displeasure with the amount of playing time that he has gotten over the last couple of seasons. Broberg has dealt with multiple injuries in his young career, which have slowed his development. Broberg is a young player that needs to be playing in order to develop. He was being used as a seventh defenceman last season and at the start of this season.

Broberg has been playing fantastic hockey for the Bakersfield Condors in the AHL since being sent down after expressing his frustration at his deployment. Broberg has shown that he can play in the NHL capably, and he’s showing that he’s too good for the AHL. I’m not saying that Broberg needs to be the replacement for Kulak. Entering the playoffs with Broberg and Desharnais as a pairing is a needless risk. Broberg will certainly be ready for an NHL roster spot by October though. Kulak is the one that is standing in his way.

I’m not saying that Kulak will get traded or that he should get traded. I’m simply pointing out that the Oilers will need to get creative to make some of the moves that they are rumoured to be thinking about, and moving Kulak is a way to create some cap space without totally sewering the team. You can’t have your cake and eat it too. That’s all I’m saying here.

Related: To Trade or Not to Trade: Warren Foegele