January 16, 2022 by Spencer Pomoty

The Edmonton Oilers will only play one game in a span of 12 days this month. This break could be good for the slumping club, or all the time off might add some rust. Still, looking at how the Oilers could fix their line combinations without making a trade seems like a fun exercise. Everybody has their opinion on what the lines should be and why they should be that way, here’s my take on what I think would be the best lineup moving forward assuming the roster is 100% healthy. All stats are 5v5 and are courtesy of evolving-hockey.com. It is a fantastic site that I couldn’t recommend it more.

Forward Line 1: Foegele-McDavid-Yamamoto

Connor McDavid is a special talent and doesn’t need much to get results. Warren Foegele has looked great beside McDavid and the numbers have backed that up. I would have loved to put Jesse Puljujarvi here, although I believe he is needed elsewhere. Kailer Yamamoto has been playing well this season despite the a lack of offensive production, but it’s starting to come. Yamamoto creates a ton of board battles and can get the puck to McDavid.

Forward Line 2: Nugent-Hopkins-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi

The DRY line hasn’t been good for awhile now. Per evolving-hockey.com, the line has played just over 240 minutes at 5v5 and although they have a 55% of the Goals Share, they have a 46% Corsi share, and a 43% Expected Goals Share (adjusted for score and venue). That lines regression is coming. Leon Draisaitl is arguably the second-bets player in the world. Puljujarvi will provide this line with another solid defensive presence and a shooter. I was tempted to put Tyler Benson here, but I think with another shooter Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will see an uptick in play.

Forward Line 3: Benson-McLeod-Hyman

I’ve been wanting this line all season long. Ryan McLeod and Benson played well together against the New York Rangers on January 3. And with Zach Hyman beside them that gives this line a finisher and a possession player. Benson is a well above average passer, he can get the puck into the middle and into dangerous spots in the ozone. McLeod is also a pass first player, but he’s shown he’s willing to take the puck to the net. This line wouldn’t be easy to play against either I think. With Hyman and McLeod’s forechecking and relentless pressure they’ll make it hard on bottom lines to move the puck, they have both shown good two-way instincts as well. Benson has also gained a bit of a honey badge act as well; he loves to get into the mix now. In my opinion Holland trading for a third lien centre is a waste of assets, McLeod should be looked at as the third line centre, upgrades are needed elsewhere.

Forward Line 4: Kassian-Sceviour-Marody

Cooper Marody deserves to be in the NHL, he has done everything he can to earn a few games. Marody was excellent in his first. Zack Kassian has been okay as an offensive player this year and Colton Sceviour has honestly impressed me a ton, I love his defensive game and he should be playing every game over Devin Shore and Derek Ryan. This line could be a complete tire fire with three righties, but the options aren’t great. Holloway could be looked at here, but I want him to start in the AHL. The NHL isn’t a league where you can just step in and feel confident after missing months of hockey.

Defensive Pair 1: Nurse-Bouchard

This pair is your best chance at a top pair. When they are on the ice, they control 56% of the expected goal
share and 57% of Corsi Share but have a Goals For Percentage of 40%.

Defensive Pair 2: Broberg-Ceci

I debated on putting this pair together, but they were so darn good in their limited time that I need to see what we got. When Philip Broberg and Cody Ceci were paired in 68 minutes (adjusted for score and venue) they put up a 62% Corsi
Share, a 60% Fenwick Share, along with 54% of the Expected Goals Share. But their actual Goal Share is sitting at 35%. I loved this pair when they were together. They control an excellent gap on the rush, they are great defensively, and Ceci allowed Broberg to play to his strengths.

Defensive Pair 3: Keith-Barrie

I would also think about running eight defencemen with William Lagesson in the lineup he can switch with Tyson Barrie or Duncan Keith depending on the game. This pair would have to play some easy minutes and I think they would be able to do decently. If they are out against bottom six lines, I’m not worried, but if they get stuck out there with a top
line they might be done for. In a mighty small sample size of 16 minutes this pair has done well with above 60% in Corsi Share, Fenwick Share, Expected Goals Share, and actual Goals Share. This pair has massive red flags, but the strength of the top four as well as the minutes they will get can hopefully make up for any hiccups.

Goaltending: Skinner

As for the goaltending mess, I would try to get all three in games and then decide after that. Stuart Skinner has the best numbers in a small sample, but GM Ken Holland has money tied up with the other two. That’s what I would do with the current roster if everyone was 100% healthy. This roster isn’t what it should be, and the Oilers need to make some additions if they want to contend for a Stanley Cup in the McDavid/Draisaitl era.

Follow my twitter @SPProspects and let me know what you would do with the current roster.