February 2, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

The topic of the Edmonton Oilers needing to add a defenceman at the trade deadline has been discussed ad nauseam over the last few months. The rhetoric is that the time is nigh to make a splash and add a defenceman because the Oilers need to win now and the defence isn’t good enough as built. I feel that the construction is sound, but the awkward state of the Oilers defence has people convinced otherwise.

Ken Holland’s goal as the General Manager of the Oilers has always been to build a team that can compete for Stanley Cups now and for many years to come. It’s tough to have your cake and eat it too. That’s the position that Holland finds himself in this season.

Let’s talk about the long-term plan of the Oilers in more detail because it’s not enough to just point out when they want to win. The core of the forward group is set with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and Evander Kane all in their primes and producing at high rates.

All of the defencemen not on entry level deals have at least another year left after this one. The ones on entry level deals are pretty important for the team’s current and future success. The cast appears to be set for at least another season, but the progression of the kids might impact where everyone slots in on the depth chart.

Holland inherited Evan Bouchard, the 10th overall pick from the 2018 draft. The hope and the plan for Bouchard has always been for him to become the top pairing right defenceman. He’s taken a step back in terms of point production and glaring defensive mistakes in his sophomore season, but his underlying numbers are just as good as they were in his rookie season and his play has been stellar since Christmas. The odds of the 23-year old evolving into a top pairing defenceman are still high in my opinion, although he likely won’t complete that ascension this season.

Holland took Philip Broberg with the eighth overall pick in 2019. It was a somewhat controversial pick given the quality of some of the forwards available at that spot, but Holland always wanted Broberg. I can’t help but think that Holland knew that Oscar Klefbom’s fate was a possibility before drafting Broberg. Broberg has the potential to slot into a second pairing role. His development has been somewhat delayed due to his own injuries, but his recent play suggests that he’s taken a step forward this season, albeit maybe not enough of one to receive second pairing minutes yet.

Both Bouchard and Broberg appear to be on the correct path to the spots earmarked for them in the long-term, but this season is slightly awkward because we’re waiting for them to progress far enough to get into those spots. The issue is that the players holding those spots now are playing above their heads.

Cody Ceci performed admirably in a top pairing role last season, but he’s not a top pairing defenceman. Tyson Barrie was brought in to be a powerplay specialist and a right-handed puck moving defenceman. He’s filling that void until Bouchard is ready to shoulder that load on his own, and he’s doing it quite well. The problem is that Bouchard will soon be able to do what Barrie does for less of a cap hit, and Barrie’s cap hit could be spent to improve other parts of the roster. Vincent Desharnais looks like he could slide into the bottom pairing on the right side, but we need more NHL game tape on him before he buys a house in Edmonton. 

The left side is less complicated. Brett Kulak is holding his own on the second pairing, but he’s best suited as a third pairing defenceman on an elite team. There’s an opportunity for Broberg to pass Kulak on the depth chart at any moment.

Once Bouchard and Broberg ascend to the spots earmarked for them, Ceci and Kulak will end up being slotted into spots in which they will be more likely to excel. That’s all well and good for the long-term, but what about now? Is there a scenario that would allow the team to add a better defenceman to slot above Ceci (top pairing right side) or Kulak (second pairing left side) without stifling the development of Bouchard and Broberg and interfering with the long-term plan?

Related: The Legitimacy of the Oilers Trading for Jakob Chychrun

The thought is that the Oilers need to add a physical shutdown defenceman. We’ve all heard the names by now. Jakob Chychrun, Vladislav Gavrikov, Joel Edmundson, Radko Gudas, and Luke Schenn are all rumoured to be available.

Chychrun would block Broberg long-term, and the asking price is through the roof. Gavrikov has fewer hits than five Oilers defencemen that have played over 200 minutes this season, including Markus Niemelainen. The impending UFA has one fewer point than Kulak. Gavrikov doesn’t add physicality or offensive firepower, and his underlying numbers are uninspiring; so I fail to see what he would add to the Oilers. Edmundson is slow and overpriced. Some other team can give Montreal a first round pick and a prospect. 

Gudas is the type of defenceman that the Oilers could use, but I don’t see how he would supplant any current members of the right side. He can’t fill Barrie’s shoes on the powerplay, he doesn’t have Bouchard’s passing ability, and he’s not a better fit as a top pairing defenceman than Ceci. Schenn is intriguing as well since he leads the league in hits by a mile and he has Stanley Cup championship experience. I feel that Gudas or Schenn could be good fits as a seventh defenceman, but it might not make sense to spend assets on either player when Desharnais is playing as well as he has in that role. 

The team’s salary cap situation needs to be considered as well. The Oilers are in a spot where they will need to shed $1.975 million to activate Kailer Yamamoto from LTIR, which could happen as early as February 12. That’s my way of saying that money is tight. 

Activating Yamamoto will be as simple as waiving then sending Devin Shore and one of Derek Ryan or Mattias Janmark to Bakersfield. As a friendly reminder, if the Oilers want to add any of the defencemen I’ve discussed here, they would need to trade Warren Foegele or Jesse Puljujarvi at a minimum to create the requisite cap space. Foegele will be tough to move at the deadline because of the extra year on his deal, and Puljujarvi will be tough to move because his qualifying offer of $3 million for next season is unappealing based on his play this season. That will make it tough to add anyone at the deadline, regardless of position.

Related: Tuesday’s Oilers LTIR Cap Gymnastics

If the Oilers want to add Chychyrun, Mattias Ekholm, Ivan Provorov, Shayne Gostisbehere, or anyone else with a cap hit over $3 million, then Holland would have to get the other team to retain salary or find a third team to retain salary. Teams don’t do that for free, so that would only make the acquisition cost of those bigger names higher.

The Oilers defence is certainly not perfect. The group needs to be playing at their absolute best to win, and they need help from the forwards with solid team structure. However, given the names available, their acquisition price, and the team’s cap situation, I don’t see anything of great consequence happening on the back end at the trade deadline.