Why McDavid Isn’t Going Anywhere: Part One – Trade Requests
August 29, 2023
Has the QMJHL fighting ban already failed?
August 31, 2023Why McDavid Isn’t Going Anywhere: Part Two – UFA Departures
EDMONTON, AB - MARCH 16: Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) celebrates his goal and 131st point in the third period of the Edmonton Oilers game versus the Dallas Stars on March 16, 2023 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)
August 30, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg
This is part two of my series on why I believe Connor McDavid will extend his contract with the Edmonton Oilers beyond 2026. Part one examined the likelihood of him requesting a trade. Today’s piece will focus on the likelihood of him leaving as an unrestricted free agent.
According to “Free Agency Cold War From 1995-2004: the Group II Cold War” by Nathan Gabay, unrestricted free agency in the NHL began in 1995. The age when players could become UFAs was 32 years old. According to “The hockey lockout of 2004-05” by Paul Staudohar, the rules were altered in 2005 to say that the age for unrestricted free agency was 31 in 2005-06, and it gradually decreased to 29 and then finally to 27. A 32-year old leaving town and a 27-year old leaving in his prime isn’t a fair comparison. Here are some of the most impactful examples of players leaving the teams that they started with upon reaching UFA status in the salary cap era:
Scott Niedermayer, 2006 (age 31): New Jersey to Anaheim
Zdeno Chara, 2006 (age 29): Ottawa to Boston
Marian Hossa, 2008 (age 29): Ottawa to Detroit
John Tavares, 2018 (age 28): New York to Toronto
Marian Gaborik, 2009 (age 27): Minnesota to New York
Alex Pietrangelo, 2020 (age 30): St. Louis to Vegas
Johnny Gaudreau, 2022 (age 28): Calgary to Columbus
Niedermayer is a bit older than the rest of the group, but I’ve included him here because he was one of the best defencemen in the league at the time. He took a unique opportunity to play and win a Stanley Cup with his brother in Anaheim, and they succeeded in 2007. McDavid’s brother doesn’t play in the NHL, so that won’t be a worry.
Chara was a cap casualty of the Ottawa Senators. The Senators regrettably chose to keep veteran Wade Redden over Chara. Hossa left the Senators in 2008, which was two years after the cap crunch that forced Chara out of town. The Senators prioritzed signing Jason Spezza ($7M AAV) and Dany Heatley ($7.5M AAV) that summer. The Oilers have been in a cap crunch for a few years now, but they would choose to move other players before letting McDavid leave.
Gaborik had previously held out due to a contract dispute with the Minnesota Wild in 2003. Gaborik eventually left Minnesota for the New York Rangers, who were more than willing to give him what he wanted. We have no reason to believe that negotiations have been anything but amicable between McDavid and the Oilers. The team just hired McDavid’s former agent to be their new CEO for Pete’s sake.
Related: Jackson’s Potential Impact on the Oilers: Part Three – Professional Scouting and Analytics
Tavares took the opportunity to sign with the team he grew up cheering for, the Toronto Maple Leafs. McDavid also grew up in the greater Toronto area; but the Maple Leafs aren’t set up well to have the cap space to go after McDavid in 2026 and to be competitive until that time comes.
The thing that Gaborik and Tavares had in common was that they were on middling teams that were stuck in neutral when they tested the open market. The Oilers aren’t stuck in neutral. They’re legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. They’ve been to the Conference Finals, and they’ve been to the second round of the playoffs three times in McDavid’s tenure.
No, I don’t think that the Oilers need to win the Stanley Cup in the next three seasons to keep McDavid around. They need to continue to contend, but they don’t need to win it all. To play devil’s advocate, McDavid could feel a sense of satisfaction after winning a Stanley Cup with the team that drafted him and decide that he wants a new challenge. Thta’s also an unlikely scenario though.
Pietrangelo revealed that he pretty much just left the St. Louis Blues because he wanted to live and play in another city for the experience of it according to BarDown. Pietrangelo’s simple decision seems like an outlier.
Gaudreau wanted to play in Columbus for family reasons. McDavid said that he and his fiancée love it in Edmonton and that the city checks a lot of boxes for them. He does go back to Ontario every summer, but McDavid and his fiancée seem to be setting roots in Edmonton. McDavid’s parents can be seen at Oilers games regularly, so it can be assumed that McDavid sees his family quite often despite them living in Ontario.
The pattern in the NHL is for long-tenured players to leave their original teams in their mid-thirties or later to chase a Stanley Cup. Brett Hull wasn’t drafted by the Blues, but he left them for the Dallas Stars in 1998, and he won a Stanley Cup with them in 1999. Mats Sundin signed with the Vancouver Canucks in 2008 as a 37-year old. Mike Modano left the Stars in 2010 to play for the Detroit Red Wings. Daniel Alfredsson left the Senators for the Red Wings to chase a Stanley Cup in 2013. Patrick Marleau and Joe Thronton both left the San Jose Sharks and signed with the Maple Leafs. Marleau did it at age 37, and Thornton did it at age 40.
None of the free agency decisions I’ve mentioned above had the impact that a McDavid departure could potentially have. These are all great players, but none even come close to McDavid’s level. Players with the potential to have a similar impact to McDavid’s have generally chosen to stay put.
Related: Why McDavid Isn’t Going Anywhere: Part One – Trade Requests
Mario Lemieux played with the Pittsburgh Penguins for his whole career. Sidney Crosby has also been with the Penguins for his whole career, even after winning a Stanley Cup somewhat early in his career. Alexander Ovechkin has played for the Washington Capitals for his entire career. He waited thirteen seasons to win a Stanley Cup in Washington.
Multiple time Stanley Cup champions Jonathan Toews and Anze Kopitar have stayed in one city for their entire careers as well, although Toews will play for a new team if he decides to play again. Steve Yzerman and Niklas Lidstrom both spent their entire careers with the Red Wings. Pavel Datsyuk’s contract was traded, but he played all of his NHL games with the Red Wings. Joe Sakic spent his career with the Colorado Avalanche franchise.
One-time Stanley Cup champion Patrice Bergeron recently retired, and he spent his whole career with the Boston Bruins. Ryan Getzlaf spent his whole career with the Anaheim Ducks as well.
A Stanley Cup isn’t even a prerequisite for a player staying in one city for his whole career. Henrik and Daniel Sedin were career-long Vancouver Canucks. Carey Price played his entire career for the Montreal Canadiens. Shane Doan spent his whole career with the Arizona Coyotes franchise. They only made it past the first round one time in his entire career! Henrik Lundqvist played all of his NHL games with the New York Rangers despite signing a contract with the Capitals in 2020. McDavid wants to win, but so did all of these other players. Not winning a Stanley Cup didn’t make them want to leave as UFAs. Winning is important, but it isn’t the only factor for all players.
Players of McDavid’s caliber rarely decide to leave as UFAs in their late twenties, so the odds of McDavid making that choice are low. LeBron James left the Cleveland Cavaliers for the Miami Heat in 2010, so it wouldn’t be unprecedented in sports; but it’s highly unlikely. Look out for part three of this series where I’ll focus on the real reasons that McDavid will likely choose to stay in Edmonton.
