November 1, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are the most fearsome twosome in the NHL. They have finished one-two in NHL scoring in three of the last four seasons. The season in which they didn’t, McDavid won the Art Ross Trophy and Draisaitl finished fourth in the league in scoring. They’ve been dubbed as the “Nuclear Option” because of how explosive they are.

The temptation to deploy the Nuclear Option by playing them on a line together has been high for every coach they’ve had. It’s hard to argue the logic of pairing the best two players in the game on a line. It’s a safety valve in case the team struggles, and it has become the go-to strategy when the team is trailing late in games. It took head coach Jay Woodcroft all of 25 minutes to go to it in the first game of the season this year. They’ve played together in every game they’ve both dressed in since.

I decided to dive in to see what the numbers tell us about the effectiveness of the Nuclear Option and of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the default second line centre when the Nuclear Option is deployed, away from the dynamic duo. I analyzed numbers from 2018-19, the first season that Draisaitl scored over 100 points, until last season. This period of time is when the Nuclear Option truly could be described as such.

The Data

2018-19	GF%	xGF%	CF%
Together	56.44%	50.04	50.74
97 w/o 29	45.89	39.22	48.79
29 w/o 97	36.96	44.95	44.60
93 w/o 97 or 29	47.27	42.31	43.02

The Nuclear Option was the better play in 2018-19 for two reasons. Their performance together was superb that season for one. The other reason is that Nugent-Hopkins had a higher goals for percentage on his own than either McDavid or Draisaitl had on his own. It’s bloody impressive that Nugent-Hopkins was able to get his goal share away from the two superstars as high as it was given his xGF% and CF% without them though.

2019-20	GF%	xGF%	CF%
Together	48.57	46.75	46.89
97 w/o 29	56	49.51	49.15
29 w/o 97	57.38	51.46	49.40
93 w/o 97 or 29	46.85	44.20	46.85

The better play in 2019-20 was clearly to split up McDavid and Draisaitl. Both players were better away from the other one, and Nugent-Hopkins didn’t have success away from the superstars. Splitting them up had the desired effect of creating two lines that could win the goal share battle. 

2020-21	GF%	xGF%	CF%
Together	66	57.30	56.28
97 w/o 29	50	56.79	53.98
29 w/o 97	57.89	45.37	46.44
93 w/o 97 or 29	41.67	54.03	47.21

The Nuclear Option was dominant in 2020-21. The problem was that Nugent-Hopkins’ goal share was brutal away from the superstars. Actual goal share makes the results inconclusive, but the expected goals numbers swing the vote in favour of keeping McDavid and Draisaitl together. Draisaitl dominated actual goal share, but he struggled in expected goal share. The opposite was true for Nugent-Hopkins. If you were to simulate seasons with those expected goals numbers a hundred times, the goal share would not turn out the way it did for Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins often. The Nuclear Option resulted in two lines with expected goals percentages over 54%. That was the smarter choice.

2021-22	GF%	xGF%	CF%
Together	54.84	57.85	57.24
97 w/o 29	60.87	59.34	56.58
29 w/o 97	53.76	47.39	48.52
93 w/o 97 or 29	50	44.76	47.18

Every option was good in 2021-22. McDavid and Draisaitl were great together, and Nugent-Hopkins sawed off the goal share battle. However, McDavid was on another level away from Draisaitl. I’m inclined to say that the better choice would have been to keep them apart in 2021-22 because McDavid was so dominant and Draisaitl’s goal share was only 1.08% worse without McDavid. The ice was also tilted in the wrong direction for Nugent-Hopkins away from the superstars. He did well to end up with an even goal share.

2022-23	GF%	xGF%	CF%
Together	57.14	58.60	56.36
97 w/o 29	53.09	57.10	52.96
29 w/o 97	47.73	48.70	49.47
93 w/o 97 or 29	53.33	46.68	48.75

Last season, the play was to leave McDavid and Draisaitl together. They had amazing results together, and Nugent-Hopkins was able to outscore the opposition at five-on-five away from them. McDavid was fine on his own, but Draisaitl struggled without McDavid. Splitting them up actually hurt the team last year.

The Results

There have been three seasons where the Nuclear Option was the better choice, and two seasons where keeping the two best players in the world apart was the better option. There were also three seasons where McDavid and Draisaitl’s performance in each of the three metrics I’ve analyzed here was better together than it was when apart. They are inarguably a dynamic duo, but these mixed results show that the Nuclear Option isn’t as explosive as the title indicates. It isn’t guaranteed that the Oilers will win when McDavid and Draisaitl play together, and it isn’t a guarantee that playing them together is even the best option for the team.

Be sure to check out part two of this piece where I break down the arguments for employing the Nuclear Option and for keeping McDavid and Draisaitl apart.

Related: The Nuclear Option – Part Two