November 1, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

In case you missed part one of this piece, I examined data on how Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have fared together and apart at five-on-five over the last five seasons. I also included Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’s numbers away from McDavid and Draisaitl as he is the second line centre when the Nuclear Option is deployed. I’ll break down the arguments for deploying the Nuclear Option and for keeping McDavid and Draisaitl apart in this article.

The argument for keeping McDavid and Draisaitl together: 

• The simple argument is that they are amazing together. Playing them together gives the team one line that they can expect to produce positive results. Your mileage on the term “nuclear” may vary, but they have been above 54.84% in all three of the metrics I analyzed in each of the last three seasons. The odds of a line with this pairing scoring at any given time are greater than the odds of a line with any other combination of players on it.

• McDavid pulls the most out of Draisaitl. There was only one season where Draisaitl was better without McDavid than with him. That shouldn’t be much of a surprise. The bigger surprise is that season was also the only season where Draisaitl had goals for and expected goals for percentages over 50% away from McDavid. 

• Finding a productive winger for McDavid has always been a challenge. Ty Rattie says hello. Draisaitl has proven to be up to the task

• Playing Draisaitl at right wing greatly improves the right wing depth chart. Connor Brown and Derek Ryan are the only two natural right wingers on the current roster. Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Warren Foegele, and Mattias Janmark can also play right wing. Hyman, Foegele, and Janmark are more comfortable on the left side though. 

The argument for splitting up 97 and 29:

• McDavid doesn’t need Draisaitl to excel. McDavid had an expected goals percentage and a Corsi for percentage below 49% away from Draisaitl in one season. He has also only had a goals for percentage below 50% away from Draisaitl in one season.

• Draisaitl has two seasons with a five-on-five goal share of over 57% in the last five. While he hasn’t hit that level of performance consistently enough to bank on it, he’s proven capable of high levels of success on a line without McDavid.

• Nugent-Hopkins has been a positive player with McDavid and with Draisaitl in every metric on Natural Stat Trick since 2018-19. He is one of the top winger options for both McDavid and Draisaitl.

• Nugent-Hopkins only had an expected goal share percentage over 50% away from McDavid and Draisaitl in one season in the last five. He only had a goals for percentage greater than 50% away from McDavid and Draisaitl in one of those five seasons, which was his 104-point season last year.

Nugent-Hopkins can’t reliably be expected to outscore his opponents at five-on-five without McDavid or Draisaitl. He’s capable, but the results haven’t shown that we can expect that out of him. Nugent-Hopkins needs to have wingers that play well with him for him to be a legitimate threat as a second line centre without McDavid or Draisaitl.

Bottom Line

We know that the Nuclear Option gives the Oilers one line that can score. The challenge has always been finding a second line to contribute. Nugent-Hopkins’s goal share without McDavid and Draisaitl was exactly 50% in 2021-22, so you can call that a success or a failure and be correct. Aside from that year, 2022-23 was the only other season in the last five that Nugent-Hopkins had a positive goal share away from the superstars, and that was his outlier 104-point season. Deploying the Nuclear Option might give the Oilers one scoring line, but the team hasn’t found a reliable option for a second line that can win the goal share battle consistently.

Conversely, there were only two seasons in which one of McDavid or Draisaitl (or both as in 2018-19) failed to reach a 50% goals for percentage when they were separated. The odds of the Oilers creating two lines that can win the goal share battle are higher when McDavid and Draisaitl are apart than when they are together. That’s why my preference is to keep them apart. However, I will say that I was surprised to learn that Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane, and Zach Hyman had only played 6:58 together at five-on-five since Kane arrived prior to the trio being formed at the Heritage Classic. Kane had three points, and Hyman had two points in that game. The line looked tremendous. If that can turn into a dangerous line, then that would free McDavid and Draisaitl up to play together with little repercussions.

The biggest complaint I hear about head coach Jay Woodcroft deploying the Nuclear Option is that he’s too quick to revert to it if the team is trailing or if a new set of line combinations doesn’t piss a drop. I think that’s a fair observation. My issue with pairing them up when trailing in a third period is that they do that when nobody is going, so they never have a second line that’s going when they deploy the Nuclear Option mid-game. However, as mentioned earlier, that pairing has the highest odds of scoring a goal. 

I also wish that Woodcroft would stick with new line combinations for a longer time before reverting back to old faithful. However, I’ll point out that the gap between McDavid and Draisaitl’s five-on-five ice time together and apart has grown significantly over the last two seasons. They play together less now than they did under Dave Tippett or Todd McLellan.

Related: The Nuclear Option – Part One

Regardless, the Oilers have finished second in their division in each of the last four years. No matter what they do with the lines, their results have largely been the same. In reality, there isn’t a big difference in the odds of the Oilers winning when the Nuclear Option is deployed or it isn’t. I believe that far too much gets made about the Nuclear Option. It isn’t as dominant as one might be led to believe, but it’s a dynamic pairing. Having them split up also doesn’t lead to magnificent results at all times. It’s six of one, half a dozen of the other.