November Goalie Power Rankings
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November 3, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg
The Edmonton Oilers announced that they recalled Raphael Lavoie from the Bakersfield Condors on Friday. This is the first NHL call up for the Oilers’ 2019 second round pick.
An injury to Connor Brown sustained in Thursday’s loss to the Dallas Stars left the team with only ten healthy forwards. Mattias Janmark was seen wearing a sling at a team event prior to the Heritage Classic, and did not play in that game or in Thursday’s game. Brown’s injury situation is certainly worth monitoring because he only needs to play in one more game this season to qualify for his $3.225 million performance bonus.
Philip Broberg was sent down to Bakersfield to allow for the cap space to recall Lavoie. It wasn’t going to be a forward going to Bakersfield. Broberg was the only defenceman on the Oilers roster that is exempt from waivers, and he struggled in Thursday’s game, so it was an easy decision to send him down this time.
These moves leave the Oilers with eleven healthy forwards and six defencemen available for Saturday’s game against the Nashville Predators. Yes, the Oilers will play short a man on Saturday; but they will be able to recall a player on an emergency basis prior to Monday’s game against the Vancouver Canucks and be cap compliant since they will have played one game short-handed.
Lavoie earned this recall. The Chambly, Quebec native broke out for the Condors last season. He scored 25 goals and added 20 assists to finish with 45 points in 61 games in 2022-23. However, he started last season slowly, scoring just seven points in his first seventeen games played. Lavoie got 38 points in the last 44 games of the season. Kurt Leavins noted that Lavoie scored 21 goals in the last 43 games of last season, which is essentially a half of a goal per game.
According to Lowetide, Lavoie’s total of 0.41 goals per game last season ranked third among Condors forwards since they became the Oilers’ AHL affiliate in 2015-16. The two seasons that beat Lavoie’s 2022-23 season? Dylan Holloway’s 2022-23 season in which he scored seven goals in twelve games, and Ryan McLeod’s 2020-21 season in which he scored fourteen goals in 28 games. Lavoie’s 0.41 goals per game over 61 games last season was the highest goals per game rate of any Condors forward that played over 28 games in that season. It is the best example of prolonged scoring success in a season by an Oilers prospect since the Condors became the AHL affiliate of the Oilers.
He’s kept bringing the heat this season as well. Lavoie has seven points in five games, and he was named the AHL’s Player of the Week last week. He has a Gordie Howe hat trick to his credit as well; a game in which he scored twice, got an assist, and got into a fight against the Tucson Roadrunners.
Related: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie named AHL Player of the Week
Lavoie was involved in a tight battle for the final forward spot on the Oilers roster with Adam Erne and Lane Pederson. Erne ultimately got the spot due to his experience and the physicality he was expected to bring. However, many fans including myself felt that Lavoie earned the spot. Here’s my analysis of Lavoie’s camp:
| 6 GP | Points | Shots | Hits | Blocks | GF% | xGF% | CF% | HDCF% |
| Lavoie | 2 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 75% (3-1) | 47.89% | 48.76% (59-62) | 46.15% (6-7) |
“Argument for Lavoie: His shot total jumps off the page. Extrapolated over an 82-game season, his 2.5 shots per game would have placed him in a tie for 80th in the NHL with Andrei Svechnikov and Pierre-Luc Dubois last season. This is a small sample size from preseason action, but it’s clear that Lavoie has a shooter’s mentality. That’s fantastic because his shot is a weapon, as we saw on his tremendous goal that he scored on Thatcher Demko.
It was one the two goals that Lavoie scored this preseason. Neither Erne nor Pederson scored more than one. Lavoie’s 13.33% shooting percentage is above the typical league average. Having a right-handed finisher in the bottom six would be a big win for the Oilers, a team that has struggled to get offensive contributions from the bottom of their lineup for many years.
My eye saw a player that put pressure on puck carriers with his quick closing speed and long reach. I never saw Lavoie get lost in defensive coverage. He ended up on the right side of the goal share in his six games.”
Related: Deep Dive: Twelfth Forward Battle
The Oilers came into the season needing a right-handed scoring winger that can finish. They still need that player. Brown was expected to be that guy, but he didn’t get a point in the nine games prior to his injury. The Oilers also needed offensive contributions from their bottom six. The first two goals from the bottom six this season came in Thursday’s game, and both came off the stick of Sam Gagner, who started the season in Bakersfield and was recalled prior to the game against the Stars.
Lavoie is a right-handed scoring winger that just won the AHL Player of the Week award and that just showed the best display of consistent scoring over the course of an AHL season by an Oilers prospect in the Connor McDavid era. Lavoie should have been with the Oilers from the start of this season, and I’m pumped that he’s getting an opportunity right now.
GM Ken Holland and the Oilers chose to go with the veteran Erne over Lavoie. I totally understand the argument that Lavoie wasn’t going to be getting much ice time and was better off getting more minutes in Bakersfield, but Erne did absolutely nothing in his six games with the Oilers before being waived after the Heritage Classic, and the Oilers got zero production from their bottom six.
Now, it should be noted that Gagner got the first recall over Lavoie. Holland was still opting for a veteran over Lavoie, but this time it was a 34-year old veteran coming off of off-season double hip surgery. It took two injuries for Lavoie to get a recall. Gagner was fantastic in his third Oilers debut, and he deserves the look he’s going to get in the top six with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evander Kane; but I still feel Lavoie deserved to be up earlier.
I’m seeing a revolving door in the sixth forward spot though. Brown started the season there. Then Janmark got a look there. Then Warren Foegele got a chance. Now it’s Gagner’s turn. I’m not sure how long Gagner will last in that spot given head coach Jay Woodcroft’s penchant for short-lived experiments. If all goes well for Lavoie, he could be one of the next ones to get his chance on a scoring line.
Lavoie has a great opportunity here with the hole on the right side. He’s just got to do something with that opportunity. The question is what kind of opportunity will it be. There’s a balance that needs to be struck between earning ice time and being given a chance to earn ice time. It might be tough for Lavoie to get ice time in the early going. Hopefully Woodcroft will put him in a position to potentially succeed rather than stapling him to the bench.
I’d like to point out that Ross Colton scored the Stanley Cup winning goal for the Tampa Bay Lightning as a rookie in 2021. He played 30 games in the regular season that year, and he played in 23 playoff games for the Lightning. Obviously the reason that teams tend to go with veterans over rookies is because experienced players are less likely to make mistakes. Sometimes, the younger player is the right choice though. Rookies can play on Stanley Cup winning teams and contribute.
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EDMONTON, AB - OCTOBER 22 Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Brett Kulak (27) and Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Evan Bouchard (2) kill off a penalty in the second period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the St Louis Blues on October 22, 2022 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)