November 9, 2023 by Josh Boulton

The 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers are supposed to be different. One could definitely argue they are very much different, but obviously not in the way the majority of the hockey community expected. After 11 games played the Oilers sit in 31st place in a 32-team league with a record of 2-8-1 and a grand total of five standings points earned. Words like dismal or horrific don’t quite seem to adequately explain the performance of this group so far, and frustrations are clearly boiling over.

At one point in recent memory goaltending was identified as the only issue, and that plague infecting the franchise appears only to have gotten worse. Just 27 days after the puck dropped on this highly anticipated campaign (an 8-1 opening drubbing at the hands of the Vancouver Canucks), the Oilers have waived goaltender Jack Campbell. Major roster changes and line shuffling have already taken place, and there’s even rumblings the sands of head coach Jay Woodcroft’s time behind the bench may be spilling out faster than planned.

It’s panic time in Edmonton.

The question to ask is, is it too late to turn the ship around? Is there still reason for optimism or is the hole dug too deep to crawl out of? History may have something to offer. I took a look at the bottom five teams in the standings for the last five seasons and compared where they were on November 7 of each season with how they finished the year. The results weren’t completely reassuring, but they weren’t entirely depressing either. Here’s what I found.

Most Oilers fans are turning to the 2018-19 NHL season for inspiration. The St. Louis Blues were famously at the bottom of the barrel throughout November. On November 7, 2018, the Blues had a record of 5-5-3 after 13 games. They weren’t even very much better off as late as January, being only three or four games above .500. They then became legends in their own time by turning things around, making the playoffs, and eventually winning the 2019 Stanley Cup. From November 7 on, their record was 40 wins, 23 losses, and 6 overtime/shootout losses. 17 games over .500. It’s a Cinderella story for the ages. Unfortunately, these stories are so special because they’re obviously very rare accomplishments, so why should Oilers fans draw any sense of hope from this?

Well, what no one remembers are the 2018-19 Vegas Golden Knights. In that very same season, they were having what might be referred to as a sophomore slump. Fresh off a Stanley Cup Final appearance in their inaugural campaign, the Golden Knights limped out of the gate in 2018-19 and by November 7 they had a record of 6-8-1. They were able to rally and went 37-24-6 to end the year (13 games over .500), earning themselves a playoff spot in the process. Everyone remembers how they lost in Game Seven of the first round by blowing a 3-0 third period lead to the San Jose Sharks on a controversial five minute major penalty call, but absolutely no one remembers what it took for them to even take part in that series after being in the bottom five of the entire NHL in mid-November.

In 2019-20 we turn to the Minnesota Wild. The Wild were an average team back in 2018-19, hovering just above the .500 mark but never quite being able to get on that one successful run to pull themselves ahead in the standings. After failing to qualify for the 2019 playoffs, the Wild were looking to make the leap into playoff contention. However, on November 7 after 16 games played, they found themselves among the worst five NHL clubs with a record of 5-10-1. They exploded after that, winning 30 of their final 53 games with a 30-17-6 performance (13 games over .500). They were able to make up enough difference to qualify for the unique play-in round playoff format, which is all the more spectacular because they had fewer games in which to do it. They ended the COVID shortened season with just 69 total games played. Imagine the possibilities had they been able to pick up a few of the 26 points that still would have been available in a regular 82 game season. Their winning percentage over those 53 games would pro-rate to about a 37-21-8 finish, giving them a final standings count of 42-31-9 and 93 standings points, right around the benchmark for a legitimate playoff spot.

The “2020-21” NHL season actually started in January of 2021 after the COVID delayed 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs forced the NHL to get creative. This is the year that featured geographical divisions where the same opponents would play each other repeatedly. For the purposes of this article I picked an arbitrary date about a month after play began, and that’s how I chose to feature the New York Rangers in this segment. After 13 games played, The Rangers were helping four other teams scrape the floor of the overall standings with a record of record of 4-6-3. They rallied to go 23-17-3 over the next 43 games (six games over .500), and come within one standings place of a playoff berth. While they did fall short, it’s important to note this season was another abbreviated one, ending with 56 total games played per team. Again, pro-rating for a normal 82 game season their projected run from November 7 on would have been 37-27-5, accumulating in an overall 41-33-8 record and 90 final standings points. While that’s typically shy of a playoff spot, as an Oilers fans it’s close enough for some hope. As it was, their 60 actual standings points would have been good enough to see the Rangers in the actual playoffs in the Northern Division.

In 2021-22 our focus shifts to a place Oilers fans may not want to go right now, but unfortunately the beacon of light in this case lies with the Vancouver Canucks. They stumbled to a 5-6-1 start and a bottom five placement after 12 games played. They ended the season with a much more impressive record of 40-30-12. That’s a nice looking 35-24-11 run (11 games over .500). Again, they did end up looking at the playoffs from the outside, but they came within 5 standings points of taking part. With 12 of their losses coming past regulation time, it wouldn’t have taken long to make up some of that ground with a bounce or two the other way. I’d take the Oilers offence in a 3 on 3 scenario at least 50% of the time, wouldn’t you?

Finally, the 2022-23 Ottawa Senators take the stage. The Senators were slow off the mark, picking up only four wins in the first 12 games to go 4-8-0 and end up in the five-team cellar. By season’s end they added 35 more wins, finishing at a clip of 35-27-8 for a final record of 39-35-8. Again, to be clear this wasn’t good enough to make the playoffs, but again, it was very close, and again that’s with leaving eight points off the table by losing in extra time. So while not every team can be the 2019 St. Louis Blues, it’s comforting to note that in each of the last five NHL seasons at least one team from the bottom five has made an exceptional run to finish the year. Looking at the current bottom five of the 2023-24 season, I don’t think too many people would bet against the Oilers as the team with the most potential to be this year’s princess.

I will explain more in the second part of this post.