November 11, 2023 by Josh Boulton

It becomes even more believable when studying the Edmonton Oilers as a team that starting slow and finishing strong seems to be engrained into their DNA.

In the last five Oilers seasons, after 11 games played the white, blue, and orange have on average finished well. They did complete the 2018-19 year on a run of 29-34-8, or five games below .500, and failed to make the playoffs, but in 2019-20 they went 29-23-8 (six games above .500) over the final 60 games of a shortened 71-game season to be the higher seed of their play-in round (pro-rated for an 82- game season it would be a projected run of 34-27-9 over the final 71 games). The 56-game 2020-21 season saw the Oilers go 29-13-2 over the final 45 games for a finishing run a whopping 16 games above .500 (pro-rated to 45-21-5 over 71 games).

Now, if recent history is a better indicator then the optimism should be even higher. With the NHL getting back to a more normal format for 2021-22, the Oilers fell into a pattern. After 11 games they were already sitting comfortably at 9-2, and ended on a 40-25-6 streak over the final 71 games, good for 15 games above .500. But that doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story. They jumped out to a 6-1 start in October, and by the start of December were still 15-5. After that they kind of fell apart a bit and as of January 20, they were only two games above .500.

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Then, in what’s now true Oilers fashion, they got scorching hot, went 10-2 in their next 12 games, and amassed a 31-12-3 record from January 22 onward including a ridiculous 14-3-1 finish to the playoffs. Yes, they started very well which is obviously different from the current club, but they really didn’t benefit much from it by mid-season. I can’t imagine a world where the Oilers aren’t at least .500 by January 20, and it’s not like they barely made the playoffs in 2022. They don’t have to light the world on fire quite that much to earn at least a wild card. Finally, for last season. The Oilers opened their 2022-23 campaign with a record of 7-6-0 after 13 games, and that actually ended up as the status quo for most of the season until March.

By Christmas break of 202-23 they were only four games above .500. A strong January (8-2-2) is the only thing that really pushed them over the edge. In fact, during February they actually lost ground before rattling off an 18-2-1 record to roar into the playoffs in a blaze of glory. And again, they didn’t just squeak into the post season here, either. It’s nice to go on runs like these, but it doesn’t have to happen for them to still reach the promised land. It’s amazing to think a team 2-8-1 can actually execute such a turnaround.

For example, literally not one person is thinking “I bet the 1-10-1 Sharks could really make things happen this year!” On the other hand, in the NHL it’s a matter of routine for at least one of the early bottom feeders to separate themselves from the worst and at the very least make it heartbreakingly close for their fans (the 2014- 15 Ottawa Senators would also like to be acknowledged), so it’s bound to happen again for one of these teams. In the specific case of the Oilers, a raging back half of the season is their way of life. Not just for “the Oilers” as a franchise, but for this specific core of players that need to do it.

They know what it feels like to be on the brink and rise above. They’ve earned the belief. They’ve earned the trust of the fans.