Cellar Dwellers – Part 2
November 12, 2023
Deep Dive: Oilers Coaching Change Press Conference
November 13, 2023
November 12, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg
As Michael Hebert and Dash both suggested on Friday evening, the Edmonton Oilers have relieved Jay Woodcroft of his duties. The team also relieved assistant coach Dave Manson of his duties on Sunday.
Related: Potential Replacements for Woodcroft
Woodcroft was with the Oilers organization ever since 2015-16, when he was an assistant coach on Todd McLellan’s staff. Woodcroft became the head coach of the Bakersfield Condors when McLellan was let go in 2018. He coached the Condors in parts of four seasons. They won a playoff series in 2018-19, and won a division championship, the best possible achievement in the AHL during the COVID shortened 2020-21 season. Woodcroft took over behind the Oilers bench on February 10, 2022. He had a 79-41-13 record in 132 games as head coach of the Oilers. That was good for a .643 points percentage. Woodcroft’s points percentage was the second best in the NHL during the course of his tenure prior to this season starting. The Oilers won three playoff series under Woodcroft, and they made it to the Western Conference Final in 2021-22.
Manson first joined the Condors as an assistant coach in the 2018-19 season. Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear, Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen, Dmitri Samorukov, and Vincent Desharnais all learned under Manson and played at least one NHL game for the Oilers. Manson led the Condors to the top penalty killing percentage in the AHL in 2018-19.
The decision to let Woodcroft and Manson go comes after a dismal 3-9-1 start to the Oilers season. Woodcroft implemented new neutral zone and defensive zone systems during training camp this year. The new 1-1-3 neutral zone system was supposed to limit chances off the rush, but the Oilers have been the worst team in the league at defending the rush. My observation and analysis of the goals against off the rush is that the rush goals against have been the result of turnovers and poor pinches by defencemen at the offensive blue line, so I don’t necessarily believe that the 1-1-3 system is the reason for the Oilers’ poor rush defence. I don’t like how easy it is for teams to move the puck through the neutral zone with such a passive neutral zone system though.
Related: Oilers Glaring Individual Mistakes
The new box plus one defensive system was supposed to increase slot protection. The team did have a few breakdowns while using this system, but it actually worked pretty well overall. My observation was that transitioning from the 1-1-3 neutral zone system to the box plus one defensive zone system left a lot of ice open at the top of the defensive zone, which left the team vulnerable on a few occasions Pius Suter’s goal in the most recent game against the Vancouver Canucks and Braden Schneider’s goal in the game against the New York Rangers are two examples of that.
Accountability was an issue under Woodcroft. Ryan Rishaug and Mark Spector were all over Woodcroft about it. Players were not losing ice time for making mistakes or for poor play. Woodcroft pointed to the realities of roster restriction due to the cap situation and players getting hurt early in games as reasons why it was hard to warrant benching players, especially players that give the team the best chance to score goals to get back into hockey games such as Bouchard. If Jonathan Huberdeau can be benched for an entire period, and if Johnny Gaudreau can get benched, then Bouchard can get benched for a shift or two.
Woodcroft also put the onus on the players for the multiple too many men on the ice penalties that have occurred this season. While I believe he’s right, that’s not what management likes to hear. You can’t just push your players under the bus like that without taking some responsibility. Woodcroft was great for accepting responsibility aside from that particular situation.
Some people will point to Woodcroft’s reliance on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. He was quick to revert to putting them together when losing, and he was generally quick to abandon different line combinations if they didn’t work right away. However, the ice time data from Hockey Reference shows that McDavid and Draisaitl both averaged less time on ice per game at even strength under Woodcroft in both 2022-23 and this season than they ever did under Dave Tippett or Todd McLellan. The data also shows that Dylan Holloway and Ryan McLeod have been getting more ice time per game than they ever have. Over reliance on McDavid and Draisaitl wasn’t the reason why Woodcroft was let go.
Manson was responsible for the penalty kill. Last season, the Oilers started using a unique penalty killing system where the high forward was asked to cover a passing lane rather than a shooting lane. The high forward would jump into a passing lane and pressure the puck carrier from that angle. The low forward would sit in the slot to intercept cross ice passes. The Oilers led the league in shorthanded goals last season, but they finished 20th in the league in penalty killing. They have been using the same system this season. They’re 30th in the league at 70%. There have only been three games out of thirteen where the Oilers haven’t allowed a goal on the penalty kill. It has been a HUGE problem.
Whether it’s right or wrong, the coach is usually the one to fall on the sword. That’s the case once again here. To Woodcroft’s credit, the Oilers rank near the top of the league in many underlying offensive metrics. For whatever reason, the finish hasn’t been there. McDavid only has one point in his last five games, and Draisaitl only has one goal in his last ten games. It’s dire when those two aren’t even producing. Also, the Oilers goaltending struggles have been well documented. They’ve also had defencemen making multiple bone-headed glaring mistakes that have led to goals against. While Woodcroft wasn’t perfect this season, his players let him down.
I feel terrible for Woodcroft since his record is so strong and he’s a fantastic coach. He will land on his feet. He’ll get another NHL head coaching job. I also feel terrible for Manson, who just lost his job after losing his wife to cancer over the summer. I wish both Woodcroft and Manson well. Both are well respected within the hockey community, and deservedly so.
Kris Knoblauch will be the new head coach of the Oilers. Knoblauch won an Ed Chynoweth Cup as WHL Champions with the Kootenay Ice in 2011 during his first season as their coach. He also won a J. Ross Robertson Cup as OHL Champions with the Eerie Otters in 2016-17. Knoblauch took the Otters to one other OHL final in 2014-15 with McDavid on his roster. Yes, Knoblauch was McDavid’s coach in junior. Make of that what you will.
Knoblauch ended up being an assistant coach with the Philadelphia Flyers in 2017-18 and 2018-19. He became the head coach of the Hartford Wolfpack, the New York Rangers’ AHL affiliate, in the summer of 2019. The Wolfpack lost in the third round of last season’s playoffs.
Knoblauch has a bit of an Edmonton connection. He played for the Edmonton Ice in 1996-97 and 1997-98. The Edmonton Ice moved to Kootenay in 1998-99. Knoblauch played for the team in their first season in Kootenay, and eventually coached them to an OHL Championship. He also played for the University of Alberta Golden Bears for five seasons from 1999-2004.
Related: Cellar Dwellers – Part 2
Paul Coffey will replace Manson as the assistant coach responsible for the defence. Coffey has been a Special Advisor to Ownership & Chairman since 2022 according to the Oilers website. Now, he’s coming down to the bench to help save the Oilers season. Once again, make of that what you will.
I didn’t think that the Oilers would go with a first time NHL head coach in this situation, but that’s exactly what they have in Knoblauch. Coffey has no NHL coaching experience either. The Knoblauch hiring is a progressive hiring, another in a group of such hirings since CEO Jeff Jackson’s arrival this summer. Time will tell if this decision pays off for the Oilers. I’m cautiously optimistic. One thing that deserves to be mentioned is that the numbers have to start regressing back to the mean for the Oilers eventually, regardless of who’s coaching. Woodguy mentioned this idea on X, but the new coach will inevitably look good when the numbers start swinging in the Oilers’ direction.
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