May 6, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Toronto Maple Leafs were eliminated by the Boston Bruins after losing a heartbreaking Game 7 loss on Saturday night. Stop me if you’ve heard that before! It has become a familiar refrain for the Leafs. This is the fourth time that they have suffered the same fate at the hands of the Bruins since 2013.

The loss was particularly dramatic in 2013 because the Leafs had a 4-1 lead in the third period of Game 7 that year. They lost in overtime. The Game 7s in 2018 and 2019 were not close, but this year’s Game 7 loss was in overtime as well.

Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner have played together since 2016-17, a span of eight seasons. They have one playoff series victory to their credit, which occurred last season. They were then promptly dismantled by the Florida Panthers in five games. They have six first round playoff exits in addition to losing in the qualification round during the 2020 bubble playoffs. Three of those first round losses have been to the Bruins.

Related: Series Wrap: Oilers Dethrone Kings in 5

A criticism of the Leafs stars is that they don’t play a heavy, physical style suited for playoff hockey. Adding John Tavares in 2018 hasn’t led to victory. Adding Ryan O’Reilly last year didn’t really work out for them. Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, and Ryan Reaves didn’t push them over the edge this year either. They even added more toughness and physicality to their defence this season by acquiring Ilya Lyubushkin and Joel Edmundson at the trade deadline, and it still didn’t help them win. Adding physical insulation around Matthews, Nylander, and Marner hasn’t worked.

The reality for the Leafs is that their results in the Matthews era have not been good enough. This loss has a lot of people wondering where the Leafs go from here.

The changes started last spring when the team parted ways with Kyle Dubas and hired Brad Treliving to be their GM. The changes will likely continue this spring. It was a surprise that head coach Sheldon Keefe was retained after last season. It will be even more of a surprise if he is still with the team next season.

Brendan Shanahan became the President and Alternate Governor for the Leafs in 2014. It’s needless to say that the “Shanaplan” hasn’t worked out to date. Shanahan’s fingerprints are all over this Leafs team. Shanahan was originally hired by Tim Liewicke, who came to the Leafs in 2013. New Maple Leafs Sports and Entertainment CEO Keith Pelley recently said that “we’re not afraid of change”, which can be interpreted many different ways. Don’t be surprised if Shanahan is not back with the Leafs next season.

The on-ice drama wasn’t exclusively saved for Game 7 of this series. Matthews, Nylander, and Marner were seen yelling at each other on the bench during Game 4, which was a decidedly uninspired effort from the Leafs that ended with them trailing 3-1 in the series. Marner threw his gloves on the ground behind the bench in frustration. After that game, Elliotte Friedman proclaimed that “this is the end of this group (Core Four) if the Leafs don’t pull off a big comeback.”

Pelley has a long history in the media industry, most recently with Rogers Media. Friedman knows Pelley well, and Friedman is quite credible. I believe Friedman’s claim that this could be the end of the core four in Toronto. 

Matthews just won his second Rocket Richard trophy by scoring the most goals in a single season in the salary cap era (69). His four-year extension starts in 2024-25. He’s not going anywhere. Nylander also has a new long-term contract beginning next season. He has set new career-highs in points in three consecutive seasons. I doubt that he is going anywhere either.

Marner and Tavares are both entering the final season of their contracts in 2024-25. Marner has more points and points per game in the playoffs than the other three Leafs stars in his career, but he was subpar in this year’s series. Three points in seven games is low for him. He struggled mightily in Game 4, and he lost David Pastrnak on the series winning goal in overtime in Game 7. Marner is small and he lacks physicality, but he’s an incredibly talented offensive player.

Tavares is still a fantastic player. He anchors the second line for the Leafs. Tavares is a highly skilled player that plays the game the right way. However, he’s going to be 34 years old next season. He’s in the stage of his career where players can fall off a cliff at any moment. He got 65 points in 80 games this season, which is his lowest points per game output in his career. The decline has likely begun. They could stick it out with the homegrown captain, but they could make a big change in the locker room by moving on from Tavares and giving the room to Matthews.

The Leafs don’t have to make a drastic franchise altering move if they don’t want to make one. They have cap space to use next season. If one of the Core Four gets traded, it will be because the organization truly believes that the Core Four isn’t strong enough to win a Stanley Cup. It would also be because one of Marner or Tavares, both hometown players, would have waived his no-move clause (which is unlikely). It would also be because the Leafs found a team with enough cap space and the assets to make a trade palateable for the Leafs. Those reasons are why I think the off-ice moves are more likely this summer. Get new people in place before making franchise altering decisions in 2025.

I always felt that signing Tavares in 2018 was the wrong move because it forced the Leafs to bleed depth over the years. Zach Hyman, Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, and Michael Bunting are just some of the examples of quality players that the Leafs have lost over the years since the Tavares signing because of cap space. Tavares is better than all of them, but the sacrifice of depth in favour of loading the top of the lineup and trying to Macgyver a forward group together using Kyle Dubas and his analytics team didn’t work out for the Leafs. Trading Marner or Tavares this summer would certainly flip the roster construction and give the Leafs more depth.

Having said that, the Leafs have had a lot of trouble keeping defencemen healthy in recent seasons. Muzzin has been incredibly tough to replace, much like Oscar Klefbom was for the Edmonton Oilers when they lost him to a career-ending injury. Aside from Morgan Rielly, the Leafs’ defence core has been a rotating cast of mediocrity for years. That’s on the front office.

According to CapFriendly, the Leafs will have $18,530,333 to use this summer. That figure is based on an active roster of sixteen skaters. The contracts of their LTIR players (Jake Muzzin, Matt Murray, and John Klingberg) will all expire this summer, which will open up a lot of cap space for the Leafs.

Bertuzzi and Domi are their two impending UFAs of greatest consequence. TJ Brodie will likely not be re-signed because of his poor season. There’s five million dollars right there. Mark Giordano is likely going to retire at the age of 40. Joel Edmundson is certainly worthy of being considered for re-signing. 

Ilya Samsonov and Martin Jones will both be UFAs as well, which leaves Woll as the only goalie signed. Woll has been unbelievable in relief in the last two playoff seasons for the Leafs. He put up a respectable .907 save percentage and 2.94 goals against average in 25 games for the Leafs this season. He’s clearly talented enough to have a full-time position in the NHL, and the Leafs ought to give it to him. He should be insulated with another quality goaltender (whether it be Samsonov or someone else) because he hasn’t proven that he can handle a number one goalie’s workload yet, but the future is with Woll.

Toronto is usually the centre of the hockey universe, but the Leafs will definitely be thrust into the spotlight this summer as a potentially tumultuous offseason awaits.