A Tumultuous Offseason Awaits the Leafs
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Call Outs, Stand Outs, and Shout Outs – Game 1: Battle for Canada Begins
May 9, 2024
May 7, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg
The Edmonton Oilers will take on the Vancouver Canucks in the second round of the NHL playoffs. This is the third time that the Western Canadian foes will have met in the playoffs. The Oilers swept the Canucks in the first round in 1986, and the Oilers beat the Canucks in six games in the second round in 1992.
Tale of the tape: (regular season stats used)
Season Series: 4-0 Canucks
Edmonton Oilers
49-27-6, 104 points, 2nd place in Pacific Division
Goals For: 292 (4th)
Goals Against: 236 (10th)
PP%: 26.3% (4th)
PK%: 79.5% (15th)
Starting Goalie: Stuart Skinner (36-16-5, .905 sv%, 2.62 GAA)
Leading Scorers: Connor McDavid (132 pts), Zach Hyman (54 G)
The Oilers enter the series against the Canucks with a full week’s rest after finishing off the Los Angeles Kings last Wednesday. Games 1 and 2 against the Kings were somewhat loose with a combined 20 goals scored by both teams, but the Oilers shut it down after that by allowing only four goals in the final three games of the series. The Oilers showed a level of discipline and maturity that they hadn’t displayed in the playoffs before in closing out the Kings the way that they did.
Related: Series Wrap: Oilers Dethrone Kings in 5
Vancouver Canucks
50-23-9, 109 points, 1st place in Pacific Division
Goals For: 279 (6th)
Goals Against: 221 (T-5th)
PP%: 22.7% (T-10th)
PK%: 79.1% (T-17th)
Starting Goalie: Arturs Silovs (3-0-1, .881 sv%, 2.47 GAA)
Leading Scorers: JT Miller (103 pts), Brock Boeser (40 G)
The Canucks made a statement by crushing the Oilers 8-1 to kick off their 2023-24 season (sorry to bring that up Oilers fans). They got off to a quick start and were never really challenged on their way to a Pacific Division title. Head coach Rick Tocchet has rightfully been nominated for the Jack Adams award.
The Canucks have elite talent at every position. JT Miller is perhaps the most unheralded 100+ point player in the league. Elias Pettersson is a filthy hockey player, and I mean that in a positive way. He’s ridiculously skilled. Brock Boeser shattered previous career-highs in goals (40) and points (73) this season. Quinn Hughes is up for a Norris Trophy after collecting 92 points in his first season as captain of the Canucks. Thatcher Demko has been nominated for a Vezina Trophy after a stellar campaign.
The Canucks were aggressive prior to the trade deadline by adding Nikita Zadorov and Elias Lindholm in separate trades with the Calgary Flames. Zadorov brings a lot of size and physicality while bolstering the defence unit. Lindholm had a down year by his standards with only 44 points in 75 games, but he’s still a high quality centre.
The Canucks were able to grind out a hard fought series win over the Nashville Predators in the first round. They had three different goaltenders record victories in the series. Demko and Casey DeSmith each won a game before leaving the series due to injuries. Rookie Arturs Silovs stepped in and played admirably well while closing out the series.
Five on Five Play: EVEN
According to Moneypuck, the Canucks had the second highest five-on-five goals for percentage, but the Oilers had the fifth highest such percentage. The Oilers led the league with a 58.17% five-on-five expected goals percentage. The Canucks were seventh in that category.
The Canucks finished second in the league with a +49 goal differential at five on five, but the Oilers finished tied for third at +41. The Canucks allowed fifteen fewer five-on-five goals than the Oilers allowed, but the Oilers scored seven more five-on-five goals than the Canucks did.
They’re both elite five-on-five teams. Having said that, there are some numbers for the Canucks that suggest that their elite level of five-on-five play is unsustainable. They were second in the league in PDO, which combines save percentage and shooting percentage. The Canucks had a PDO of 102.72% during the regular season. Part of that was due to the fact that they led the league in team shooting percentage (10.59%), and part of that was Vezina caliber goaltending.
The Canucks also finished second in the league in goals for above expected, which is basically a measure of how many goals a team scored versus how many they were expected to score. The Oilers were 30th in that category. The Canucks finished with the sixth fewest goals allowed above expected, and the Oilers finished fifteenth.
These numbers suggest that the Canucks overachieved at five-on-five, and that the Oilers underachieved. I see Humpty Dumpty sitting atop the wall when I look at the Canucks. They got on top for a reason, but the fall will hurt when it happens.
The Oilers dominated the league in expected goals for with 217.14 (next closest was PIT with 187.65) and expected goals differential with 60.97 (next closest was CAR with 39.99). The Canucks finished ahead of the Oilers in expected goals against, but only by three spots (seventh vs tenth). The Oilers defend at five-on-five almost as well as the Canucks, but the Oilers are superior when it comes to generating scoring chances at five-on-five.
It has to be noted that the teams basically flip-flopped in every five-on-five metric I’ve discussed here in the first round, which is more evidence that the regular season doesn’t matter. The Canucks’ PDO has held fairly firm though (102.15% in round one).
Special Teams: Advantage EDM
The success of the Oilers powerplay will be a major factor in this series, as it is in every series they play. They went 4/16 (25%) against the Canucks in the regular season. That’s slightly below their regular season average, but it still averages out to be a goal per game scored on the powerplay. The Canucks penalty kill was 90.9%, third best in the first round. It will need to be that good or better against the Oilers.
The Canucks went 7/17 (41%) on the powerplay against the Oilers during the regular season. The Oilers penalty kill was a significant part of their early season issues, which included three losses to the Canucks. The Canucks powerplay struggled in the first round, only operating at a 15.4% clip. While I don’t expect the Oilers penalty kill to be perfect for the series like it was against the Kings, I expect the penalty kill to be much better against the Canucks powerplay than they were in the regular season.
Goaltending: EVEN
Thatcher Demko is one of the best goalies in the NHL. He would give the Canucks a definite advantage in the crease if he was playing in the series (which might happen as soon as Game 4).
The Canucks are relying on rookie third stringer Arturs Silovs, who was solid in three appearances in round one. It’s safe to say that most people would give Stuart Skinner and the Oilers the advantage given the attrition that has occurred in the Canucks net, but Silovs posted a .938 save percentage and a 1.70 goals against average in his three starts against the Nashville Predators.
Silovs backstopped Latvia to a bronze medal in the World Championships last year, which was the first medal for his nation in that tournament. Oilers fans know that a hot depth goalie is the kryptonite of the Oilers. My gut says to give the advantage to Skinner, but that’s only because Silovs is an unknown commodity in the NHL. Silovs is definitely playing better than Skinner right now though. That and the potential for Demko to come back during the series is why I feel the goaltending is even for the series.
Keys to Victory
Oilers: The Oilers will win the series if they continue their superb special teams play. The penalty kill has been volatile this season, and it will need to stay strong in round two. I expect the Oilers to have the majority of the offensive zone time in the series because they are so good at creating five-on-five scoring chances, but they will need to find ways to score off the cycle. They will also need to stay out of their own way by preventing odd-man rushes against. That will be achieved by having the discipline to always have a forward high in the offensive zone and for the defencemen to avoid ill-advised pinches at the offensive blue line and in the neutral zone.
Canucks: The Canucks will have to defend their way to series victory. They can bend, but they can’t break. They will have to withstand the attack of the Oilers by collapsing in the slot and making life easy for whoever is in net. Their penalty kill will have to step up, and their powerplay will need to find more of the secret sauce they had against the Oilers early in the regular season. They will have to be opportunistic when they get high quality scoring chances. Finally, their goaltending is going to have to steal the Canucks a game or two.
X Factors
Oilers: Ryan McLeod
McLeod is relied upon to shut down his opponents defensively. He got outscored 0-2 in round one, and he lost the shot share battle; but he won the scoring chance battle. That tells me that the shots he allowed were of low quality, which is a sign of solid defending. However, his line got exactly zero points in the series. If the third line can find some offence, it will go a long way towards the Oilers winning the series.
Canucks: Dakota Joshua
Joshua broke out this season. He scored eighteen goals and got 32 points in 63 games. The 6’3”, 206 lb forward plays a hard, physical game. He also showed a lot of skill with those eighteen goals. He scored a number of big goals late in games in select viewings I had of the Canucks this season. Joshua could have a big impact in this series.
Injuries
Oilers: Evander Kane (sports hernia) missed practice time this week. Adam Henrique will miss Game 1 with an ankle injury. He is considered day-to-day.
Canucks: Demko, DeSmith, Tucker Poolman.
Wrap
The Oilers are the betting favourites in this series despite the Canucks having won the Pacific Division. The difference between these two teams in the regular season can be found in the head-to-head matchup that the Canucks swept. Three of those losses happened in the early part of the season when the Oilers were struggling, and the fourth was a late season game in which Connor McDavid did not dress. The regular season means absolutely nothing.
This is going to be a tight series. The Canucks will not get into a track meet with the Oilers. The Oilers will have to find ways to score goals with the defence collapsed in the slot and against a hot depth goalie, both of which have proven to be challenges for them in the past.
There’s nothing quite like an all-Canadian matchup in the playoffs! Enjoy the series, and behave yourselves out there!
