June 14, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

I apologize if you were trying to repress this memory, but the Edmonton Oilers had a horrific October in 2023. Their poor play extended into November as well. The team went 3-9-1 before making a coaching change and eventually getting themselves to the Stanley Cup Final.

Fast forward to June 2024, and the Oilers find themselves in a 3-0 hole in the Stanley Cup Final. I’m seeing some similarities between what has happened in this series to date and what was happening with the Oilers in the early part of the 2023-24 season.

Goal Scoring

The Oilers seemingly couldn’t buy a goal before the coaching change. They averaged 2.69 goals per game through the first thirteen games of the season. They went on to average 3.72 goals per game over the next 69 games. 

Once again, the Oilers can’t seem to buy a goal. The Oilers have averaged 3.19 goals per game in the playoffs, but they have only scored 1.33 goals per game in the Stanley Cup Final.

Connor McDavid had one point in the last five games of Jay Woodcroft’s tenure. He has three points in the series. A point per game is amazing for most players, but McDavid had 31 points in eighteen games entering the Stanley Cup Final.

Leon Draisaitl had one goal in the ten games before the coaching change. He has now failed to score a goal in five consecutive games. Draisaitl has yet to register a point in the Stanley Cup Final.

Powerplay

The Oilers powerplay recorded the highest proficiency rate of all-time in the 2021-22 season. Their powerplay has been historically good for the last five seasons. Performance is never consistent though. There are peaks and valleys. The Oilers powerplay struggled by their standards early in the season, going just eleven for 46 (23.9%) in the first thirteen games of the season.

The Oilers have not scored a powerplay goal in the Stanley Cup Final. They are now zero for ten in the series.

Defensive Miscues

I maintain that the biggest reason that the Oilers struggled at the start of the season was individual defensive miscues. Oilers defencemen were consistently making poor decisions at the offensive blue line and in the neutral zone, which was leading to a barrage of odd man rushes. A lack of back checking from the forwards is always an issue when a team is giving up a lot of odd man rushes as well. There were also many sloppy giveaways in the defensive zone that ended up in the back of the Oilers net.

Related: Oilers Glaring Individual Mistakes

Well, we’ve seen those mistakes emerge again in the Stanley Cup Final. Hockey is a fast game, and the other teams all have really good players. Things are going to happen sometimes. Having said that, the Oilers have a penchant for getting into extended stretches where they can’t get out of their own way. They are having one of those stretches at the worst possible time.

McDavid and Zach Hyman got beat up the ice by Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe, which led to a goal off the rush for the Panthers in Game 1. Evander Kane fell asleep for a second, and Evan Rodrigues beat him to the dangerous area. Cody Ceci chose to defend Sam Bennett’s body instead of his stick, and Darnell Nurse let the puck squeak by him into the slot for Rodrigues to bury.

The Oilers failed to identify Niko Mikkola joining the rush a little bit late on the Panthers’ first goal in Game 2. Evan Bouchard really struggled with turnovers early in the season. He’s had an unbelievable season, but a sloppy defensive zone turnover led to the game-winning goal for the Panthers in Game 2. Bouchard’s pass to Rodrigues was tape to tape.

Bouchard got stripped of a puck at the offensive blue line in a four-on-four situation in Game 4. The Panthers scored moments later. Mattias Ekholm was in a good position on that goal, but he failed to tie up Sam Reinhart’s stick. Ekholm got caught drifting a little bit too low in the offensive zone, which led to the game winning goal by Barkov. Nurse’s attempted backhand pass in traffic below his own faceoff circle ended up being picked off, and it predictably led directly to a goal.

Goaltending

The early season goaltending woes for the Oilers are well documented. Things were going wrong on the back end, and they couldn’t get a save when they needed one. It felt like every mistake that was made turned into a goal against.

Jack Campbell was the starter on opening night. He was waived and sent to the AHL after putting up an .873 save percentage and a 4.50 goals against average in just five appearances. Stuart Skinner wasn’t much better. He had an .861 save percentage and a 3.53 GAA in the first thirteen Oilers games of 2023-24.

Skinner was a huge factor in the turnaround of the Oilers season, and he is a big reason that the Oilers are where they are right now. He stood on his head in Game 6 against the Dallas Stars to clinch a Stanley Cup Final appearance for the Oilers. However, Skinner has an .868 save percentage and a 3.13 GAA in the first three games of the Stanley Cup Final. The team has hung him out to dry on a multiple occasions, but he hasn’t been able to come up with the big saves to bail his team out often enough in the first three games of the series.

This post from Meghan Chayka tells the story of the goaltending in this series:

Goals Saved Above Expected
After Game 3 – 2024 Stanley Cup Final
Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA) +5.44
Stuart Skinner (EDM) -2.98

Bobrovsky has stopped 19 of 20 shots on net (.950 SV%) from the inner slot in the series; NHL average SV% on inner slot shots this season is .770 🔥 pic.twitter.com/vA66PprZY6

— Meghan Chayka (@MeghanChayka) June 14, 2024

Skinner hasn’t played up to his standard, and this display of goaltending from Sergei Bobrovksy is one of the best if not the best that I have ever seen in a Stanley Cup Final series.

Underlying Stats

The early season struggles were frustrating on their own, but the thing that made that start even more frustrating was that the Oilers were near the top of the league in a lot of underlying five-on-five metrics, and they were still losing consistently.

Here’s a look at some of those underlying numbers through the first three games of the Stanley Cup Final:

The Panthers outplayed the Oilers in the third period of Game 1, and for all of Game 2. The Oilers have had the better of the play in the majority of the series according to the underlying numbers, but that hasn’t been able to outweigh their mistakes.

The Oilers are also dealing with a horrendous .923 PDO. Despite all the good things that the underlying numbers say are happening, the Oilers aren’t finishing or getting saves when needed.

Wrap

We need to give the Panthers a lot of credit for how the series has gone so far because they really are a fantastic hockey team. They were the best defensive team in the league in the regular season, and they have been the best defensive team in the league in the playoffs.

The Oilers have said that they know that their best can beat anyone else’s best. Unfortunately, what we have seen through the first three games of the Stanley Cup Final is a far cry from the Oilers’ best hockey. It’s pretty close to their worst hockey, similar to what we saw in the first thirteen games of the season.

The series is not over, but the Oilers will need to find a way to cut out the mistakes and play their best hockey if they are going to make history and come back in this series.