March 19, 2025 by Ryan Lotsberg

There comes a time in every Edmonton Oilers coach’s tenure where the fans complain about the coach playing Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl together too often. Deploying the “Nuclear Option” is just too tantalizing to pass up. It becomes the default move when the team is trailing in the third period or when the team isn’t playing well.

Well, the prevailing sentiment from the fans is that it’s best to keep the two superstars separated. Playing them together is putting all your eggs in one basket. If the “Nuclear Option” doesn’t work on a given night, then odds are that the offence will cease to exist. Coaches get criticized for relying on it because it’s the easy move. It shows a lack of creativity.

Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch has been on the receiving end of that criticism lately. He deploys McDavid and Draisaitl alongside Zach Hyman after penalty kills, and he has been quick to revert to the “Nuclear Option” in many games this season. McDavid and Draisaitl played 466:25 at five-on-five in 76 games last season according to Natural Stat Trick. They have played 406:42 together in 62 games this season. They’re on pace to spend 498:32 together this season. It’s an increase from last season; but it’s a far cry from the 805:37 that they played together during the 2018-19 season, so let’s not be too dramatic about the amount of time they play together.

I did a two-part piece on the subject in November 2023. I went all the way back to 2018-19, which was the first season that Draisaitl truly broke out and cemented himself as one of the league’s best players. My goal was to see if the numbers said that it was better to play them together or to keep them apart. I looked at their five-on-five goal shares, expected goals percentages, and Corsi percentages together and apart. I also included the same numbers for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins away from the dynamic duo because he has always been the second line centre when McDavid and Draisaitl play on the same line, and I wanted to see if the Oilers could form a reliable second line without McDavid or Draisaitl on it.

Related: The Nuclear Option – Part One

The “too long, didn’t read” version of that piece was that the results were mixed. It was better to play them together in some seasons, and it was better to keep them apart in other seasons. Their numbers together are always tremendous, but sometimes one of them surpasses their performance together on his own. The play of Nugent-Hopkins away from them also factored into my rationales.

Here’s the data for this season:

First of all, the numbers for McDavid and Draisaitl together leap off the page! They have truly been dominant as a duo this season. Their expected goals percentage together is over 11% better than either one of them has on their own, which is ridiculous.

Their expected goals percentages are both around 55% percent, which is fantastic. However, the thing that we have to consider is that McDavid’s goal share away from Draisaitl is a surprising 43.08%. He’s been outscored by nine goals at five-on-five away from Draisaitl this season!

I’m not going to put that all on McDavid. His typical linemates (Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman) have also under performed this season. They have not been the dominant trio that they were last season. Their on ice shooting percentage is at 7.85% this season, which is down from 10.03% last season. A down season defensively from their usual defence pairing (Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard) is a factor as well. Regardless, it just hasn’t worked for McDavid away from Draisaitl at five-on-five this season.

That quick analysis says that it’s better to play them together than to keep them apart this season, but we also need to know if the Oilers could build a second line that could carry their share of the load when the “Nuclear Option” is deployed.

Related: The Nuclear Option – Part Two

Nugent-Hopkins’ numbers away from McDavid and Draisaitl are pretty mediocre. Let’s go deeper with the analysis though. We have to consider who Nugent-Hopkins would play with as well. A prime candidate for this position would be Viktor Arvidsson, the prized free agent signing that was expected to do damage with Draisaitl on the second line. It hasn’t worked out as expected with Draisaitl, but there are some numbers that offer encouragement about Arvidsson and Nugent-Hopkins together.

Arvidsson’s expected goals and Corsi percentages are pretty much the same with Draisaitl and with Nugent-Hopkins, but his actual goal share with Draisaitl is MUCH lower than it is with Nugent-Hopkins. That 69.23% goal share should not be expected to last, but their 55.34% goal share suggests that they’re not lucky to be winning the goal share battle. You could also argue that Arvidsson’s 56.79% expected goals percentage with Draisaitl suggests that they should not be losing the goal share battle and that they would eventually pull ahead; but actual results matter when we’re talking about short-term lineup decisions.

The goal shares for Arvidsson and Nugent-Hopkins are below 50% away from each other, and their expected goals percentages are lower when they’re apart than when they’re together (albeit by a small amount). That means that they seem to make each other a little bit better when they’re together. If you were to put a winger that can finish beside them, then it could be a really effective second line. That could be a great spot for Jeff Skinner. That trio would be small, but they would do well with puck possession. They would also likely get Darnell Nurse and Jake Walman as their predominant defence pairing, which would surely help the line’s puck possession metrics.

While Nugent-Hopkins’ numbers away from McDavid and Draisaitl are middling at best, it appears that Arvidsson is a legitimate candidate that could be a part of a second line with Nugent-Hopkins that could pull its weight when McDavid and Draisaitl are together.

To recap:

1. McDavid and Drasaitl have been unbelievably good together this season.
2. McDavid’s goal share away from Draisaitl is astonishingly low.
3. There is a viable second line option featuring Nugent-Hopkins and Arvidsson.

Those reasons are why I think the “Nuclear Option” is the best option for the Oilers this season.

Moving Draisaitl to the wing makes the centre depth chart weaker. The Oilers are still flush with options at centre with Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Henrique, Mattias Janmark, and Derek Ryan that can all play centre behind McDavid though. Knoblauch has even tried Kasperi Kapanen at centre recently. Remember that the Oilers are getting Trent Frederic sometime soon. He can play either centre or wing. Henrique could legitimately still be the fourth line centre when Draisaitl is on McDavid’s wing once Frederic is healthy. Centre depth is a non-issue on this team.

I don’t see the Oilers going very far if McDavid’s five-on-five goal share was to continue to be at 43.08% away from Draisaitl in the playoffs. If the concern is about a lack of offence from deeper in the lineup, then the top line absolutely cannot be getting outscored like McDavid has been away from Draisaitl this season.

I say let McDavid and Draisaitl eat. We know what they’re capable of in the playoffs. Let them dominate whoever they’re up against and ride the “Nuclear Option” to victories.

* Having said that, I definitely want to see how the Skinner – McDavid – Hyman line can do down the stretch. They were fantastic in Tuesday’s 7-1 win over the Utah Hockey Club, and I see potential for that line. My only caveat to going with the “Nuclear Option” is if the Skinner – McDavid – Hyman line can produce like I think it can.