Dickinson’s new deal will be a problem for the Oilers
June 21, 2026June 22, 2026 by Ryan Lotsberg
The Edmonton Oilers announced that they signed Connor Murphy to a five-year contract with an average annual value of $4.1 million on Monday.
Murphy was acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks for a 2028 second round pick prior to the 2026 trade deadline. He got four points in twenty games for the Oilers in the regular season and three in six playoff games.
Let’s get the obvious objection out of the way. I don’t like that the Oilers gave a 33-year old a five year contract. Paying a player until he’s 38 rarely works out well. We can expect Murphy’s performance to stay close to its current level for another season or two, but the latter part of the contract will be problematic. The terms of his no-movement clause loosen in the final two years of the contract, which makes it easier to move at that time. That doesn’t provide much solace though. That’s the cost of doing business with UFAs, but that doesn’t mean that I have to like it.
The 33-year old has a long track record of being a reliable shut down defenceman. Murphy stabilized the second pairing with Darnell Nurse down the stretch and in the playoffs. The duo had a five-on-five goals against per 60 rate of 1.24 together. During the playoffs, it was 1.22. Prior to Murphy’s arrival, Nurse’s 5v5 GA/60 rate was 2.9. The 6’4”, 212 lb defenceman also anchored the league’s top penalty kill last season before coming to the Oilers.
Murphy has a skillset the Oilers don’t currently have much of. He’s hard to play against. Murphy is a top end defender, but the offensive side of his game is lacking. I would generally view this type of player as a bottom pairing defenceman on a championship level team, which is what the Oilers are aspiring to be. I can get on board with Murphy being used as a second pairing defenceman as long as he’s paired with someone that can move the puck and generate some offence from the back end, which he will be whether his partner is Jake Walman or Mattias Ekholm. It doesn’t sound like Nurse will be with the Oilers next season, so Murphy will have to adjust to a new partner.
Conceptually, Murphy is similar to Jason Dickinson, who the Oilers signed to a similar contract on Sunday. I realize that Dickinson is a centre, but like Murphy, he’s defensively oriented and lacks offensive production. I despise the Dickinson contract because I feel that he is not the right player for his expected role. I feel better about the Murphy contract than I do about the Dickinson contract though. I place Murphy’s value closer to his AAV than I place Dickinson’s value. Murphy isn’t going to be expected to take top pairing minutes away from Evan Bouchard the way that Dickinson will be expected to take top line minutes away Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, so his usage will be more palatable to me than Dickinson’s expected usage. There are far fewer options available for second pairing right-handed defencemen in the market than there are centres, which makes signing Murphy a better decision than signing Dickinson in my view.
Related: Dickinson’s new deal will be a problem for the Oilers
My preference for the construction of this defence group would’ve been to find a way to create a pairing that can get the puck to Draisaitl consistently similar to the way that the Ekholm – Bouchard pairing can get the puck to McDavid. The Oilers have two of the best centres in the world. There’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to create two five-man units that can dominate.
I’m not saying they need to get another defenceman that can put up points like Bouchard can. I’m saying that the second pairing needs to not be a drag on Draisaitl’s performance. Natural Stat Trick’s Line Tool shows us that Draisaitl’s 5v5 GF% decreased by 16.31% when he was on the ice with Nurse last season compared to without him. His 5v5 xGF% fell by 7.92%. Draisaitl’s xGF% has gone up with Nurse by approximately 1% in two seasons since 2020-21. Aside from that, Draisaitl’s GF% and xGF% have been lower with Nurse than away from him in every season since 2020-21.
That problem will go away once Nurse is moved, but the question of who Draisaitl will have behind him remains. Draisaitl’s GF% and xGF% were lower with Walman than they were away from him as well. Their numbers together from the stretch drive of the 2024-25 season immediately after Walman arrived in Edmonton are more encouraging (5-1, 59.3% xGF%), but last season’s performance left something to be desired.
Murphy only got to play in six games with Draisaitl down the stretch because of Draisaitl’s injury. Their GF% was 50% (2-2), and their xGF% was 50.59%. Obviously Draisaitl was more impactful away from Murphy as well, but it’s a small sample size. In the playoffs, their xGF% dropped to 47.53% despite outscoring the opponent 4-1 in six games. Interestingly, Draisaitl’s xGF% away from Murphy was 38%, which was 9.53% lower. We don’t have enough information to see how Murphy will fare with Draisaitl, especially not knowing who his partner will be. My preference would be for a more well-rounded defenceman in this spot, someone that also has some offensive ability to go along with above average defensive play; but that option just isn’t available right now.
I think that Oilers GM Stan Bowman will need to find a young defenceman that can develop into a second pairing defenceman as Murphy declines in the latter years of this contract. Ty Emberson is a fine third pairing defenceman, but I don’t see him ever passing Murphy on the depth chart. That’s business for another summer, but it will have to happen at some point.
The Murphy signing isn’t a massive home run, but it’s not awful either. I don’t think Murphy being on the second pair hurts the Oilers, especially since he will be paired with a better overall defenceman like Walman or Ekholm.
