March 2, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Edmonton Oilers have a long wish list for Friday’s trade deadline. You have to give if you want to get though. I’m going to do a short series on players that might need to be moved to make way for new players at this trade deadline. It won’t necessarily be because these players are bad. It will be due to the player’s cap hit, role on the team, and place on his career arc. First up is Warren Foegele.

Related: Oilers 2024 Trade Deadline Preview

Foegele has been solidly entrenched in the Oilers’ middle six in his three seasons in Edmonton. He has 83 points in 206 games with the Oilers. He’s putting up career numbers this season with 29 points in 57 games entering the weekend. The impending UFA is having a career year at the right time, but he might be playing his way out of the Oilers’ price range for next season. Clearing his $2.75 million cap hit now would help the Oilers be able to add prior to Friday’s trade deadline.

Let me be clear in saying that the only way that Foegele would get moved is to make room for a top six winger with a higher cap hit. Foegele has spent a lot of time in the top six this season, and he has performed fairly well up there given his career numbers. Here is a list of his ice time with each of the top three centres on the team this season:

Draisaitl: 259:30

McLeod: 231:09 (time together w/o Draisaitl)

McDavid: 90:40

Leon Draisaitl has been Foegele’s centre for the vast majority of the time that he has played in the top six this season. They’ve been pretty good together. They have outscored the opposition 17-14 (54.84%) at five on five. Surprisingly, Draisaitl has only assisted on four of Foegele’s thirteen goals this season. However, Foegele and Draisaitl have been a part of twelve goals, which accounts for 41.3% of Foegele’s offensive output. Foegele also has a 16-game goalless drought, and two other goalless droughts of seven or more games this season.

Foegele has played the most time with Ryan McLeod this season (320:04). They’ve played respectably well together, outscoring their opponents 13-10 (56.52%) at five on five with excellent metrics across the board. They have mostly played on the third line together, but they did play with Leon Draisaitl for 88:55 during the team’s recent 16-game winning streak. The trio outscored their opponents 10-3 at five on five while playing together. 

Foegele has played with Draisaitl without McLeod for 170:34 this season. They have been outscored 7-11 (38.89%) at five on five without McLeod despite having a 59.34% expected goals for percentage. 

Meanwhile, Foegele and McLeod have been outscored 3-7 (30%) in 231:09 at five on five without Draisaitl. Keep in mind that is a sample size of 231:09 vs 88:55 together as a trio. Foegele and McLeod have been on the ice for 23 five on five goals in 231:09. Thirteen of those goals came during 88:55 while playing with Draisaitl. 56.5% of the five on five goals that have happened while Foegele and McLeod have been playing together have occurred in 38.47% of the time they have spent playing together.

That’s a fancy way to explain that Foegele and McLeod play low event hockey together. The goal share has not been on their side, but they have a 61.07% expected goals for percentage away from Draisaitl. While there’s no guarantee of this happening, their goal share is likely to rise towards the mean with an expected goal percentage like that.

Foegele’s five on five goal share this season is 32-34 (48.48%). The thing to note with him is that his expected goals for percentage is 58.63%. It hovers around 60% regardless of his linemates. Foegele does a lot of good things, but the reality is that the puck doesn’t seem to go in much when he’s out there without Draisaitl. Foegele is having a career-year, and he’s on pace for 42 points in 82 games. That production is in line with a middle six forward, but not necessarily a top six forward.

Foegele is one of the six forwards that head coach Kris Knoblauch has entrusted to play on the penalty kill. The numbers that I’ve analyzed in the table below suggest that Foegele is the best penalty killing forward of the six that are currently entrusted with that responsibility:

	SF/60 Rel	SA/60 Rel	SF% Rel	HDCF/60 Rel	HDCA/60 Rel	HDCF%/60 Rel
Foegele	5.02 (1st)	-17.34 (1st)	13.57 (1st)	2.41 (2nd)	-2.25 (2nd)	9.35 (1st)

Foegele also ranks first in this group of six forwards in goals against per 60 at 4.6. However, the important thing to note here is that Foegele only averages 0:54 of ice time per game in four against five penalty killing situations, which is sixth out of six in this group. Foegele does well in limited ice time on the penalty kill. I said the same thing about Connor Brown recently, and I’ll say the same thing about Foegele here. While his work on the penalty kill is useful and noted, that production is not irreplaceable.

If Foegele has to go the other way to make a trade for a top six winger happen, I would have absolutely no hesitation about sending him the other way. Foegele is miscast as a top six winger, and the Oilers have relied on him in that role for much of the season. He plays low event hockey when he plays in the bottom six, but the goal share is not on his side this season (although it is close to even).

Ideally, the Oilers would find a way to bump Foegele down to the third line and add a top six winger. That could be done by using a third team to retain salary on an incoming player, but that could impact the team’s ability to add another veteran depth defenceman, which is also a need.

The only thing that might give me pause about trading Foegele is the fact that Connor McDavid asked GM Ken Holland not to trade Foegele last summer. McDavid and Foegele played minor and junior hockey together, and McDavid likes what Foegele brings to the team. It’s important to keep the superstar happy, but Tyson Barrie was well liked in the dressing room too. Barrie was moved in a trade that made the team better at last year’s trade deadline. Ultimately, I think that’s what McDavid and the Oilers care about the most, so I think Holland would make the trade if he feels it will make the team better.

All stats in this piece are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.