June 17, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

Sergei Bobrovsky was nearly impenetrable in the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final. He had a 32-save shutout in Game 1, and he stopped eighteen of the nineteen shots that the Edmonton Oilers threw at him in Game 2.

The Oilers got three by Bobrovsky in Game 3, including two in the third period. Then Game 4 happened. Bobrovsky surrendered five goals on sixteen shots before the second period was five minutes old. All of that adds up to seven goals against Bobrovsky in his last 38:57 of game action in Games 3 and 4.

The Oilers clearly started doing something right to beat the two-time Vezina Trophy winner. The question now is can the Oilers keep it going, or will Bobrovsky regroup and shut the door on the Oilers?

Bobrovsky is up for the Vezina Trophy again this season, so he likely won’t stay cold for long. He allowed five goals in a game twice during the regular season. The first was in the Florida Panthers’ second game of the season against the Winnipeg Jets. He immediately followed that performance up by allowing three goals in a win over the New Jersey Devils. Bobrovsky allowed four goals in a loss to the Vancouver Canucks two games after that, which means he allowed three or more goals in three out of those four games. The one other game in that stretch was a game where he only allowed one goal to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The second time that Bobrovsky allowed five goals in a game in the regular season was on April 1, 2024 against the Maple Leafs. Bobrovsky responded by shutting out the Ottawa Senators the next time out. He added another shutout two games after that one, this time to the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Bobrovsky has allowed five or more goals in a game three times in these playoffs now. The first time was to the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 4 of their first round series. The Panthers had a 3-0 lead in that series as well, then the Lightning had a big game. Bobrovsky allowed one goal in Game 5, and the Panthers closed out the series.

It wasn’t like he settled down right away after that game though. Bobrovsky allowed four goals to the Boston Bruins in Game 1 of their second round series. The Bruins had some momentum after winning a Game 7 on home ice two days before that game, while the Panthers had been off for about a week. Bobrosvky allowed two or fewer goals in the next seven consecutive games and twelve of the next thirteen games after Game 1 of round two though.

The New York Rangers beat Bobrovsky five times in Game 3 of their series. It was the only game in that series where Bobrovsky allowed more than two goals. The Panthers won the next three games to advance to the Stanley Cup Final.

Bobrovsky has been pretty consistent this season, which is expected of a Vezina Trophy nominee. He only had two stretches where he allowed three or more goals in a game in three or more straight games this season. The Panthers went on a four-game losing streak from January 13 – 22, 2024. Bobrovsky started three of those games and allowed three or more in all three of those games. Then he rattled off twelve straight games where he allowed two or less goals.

The other sequence where Bobrovsky allowed three or more goals in three or more games was a six-game stretch between March 12-26, 2024. He allowed four goals twice in that stretch, and three goals four times. Bobrovsky allowed two goals to the Red Wings immediately after that stretch, and the next game was his second time allowing five goals in a game. He allowed three or more goals in seven of eight games.

All I’m saying is that while it’s unlikely that Bobrovsky endures a prolonged stretch of sub-standard play, such a stretch is not unprecedented.

Related: Can the Oilers come back from the dead?

The other half of the equation is the Oilers scoring at a high pace for an extended period of time. The short answer is yes, the team that was fourth in the league in goals for this season and first in goals for last season can score at a high pace for an extended period of time.

The Oilers had five streaks where they scored three or more goals in a game this season. That includes a fifteen-game stretch between November 11 and December 14, 2023. That was a part of a stretch where the Oilers scored three or more goals in 22 out of 24 games that lasted until January 6, 2024. Most recently, the Oilers had a seven-game streak of three or more goals from March 19 – 30, 2024.

The Oilers have had one such streak in the playoffs. It started in Game 5 of their first round series against the Los Angeles Kings, and extended through the first four games of their second round series against the Vancouver Canucks.

They had only been held to two or fewer goals in a game four times before the Stanley Cup Final: Game 4 of round one, Game 5 of round two, and Games 2 and 6 of their third round series against the Dallas Stars.

Game 6 of the Western Conference Final and the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final was a cold streak for the Oilers. They only went three games with scoring two or fewer goals twice in the regular season. Once was at the tail end of Jay Woodcroft’s tenure with the Oilers, and once was the first three games of an Eastern road trip in early March where they beat the Bruins in overtime, lost to the Blue Jackets, and lost to the Buffalo Sabres in overtime.

This series is so interesting because it’s a battle between one of the highest scoring teams in the league and the best defensive team in the league. The Oilers can definitely score goals in bunches, but Bobrovsky and the Panthers are highly unlikely to let the Oilers score piles of goals over the course of four games in a row. 

Statistical trends tend to fluctuate. Bobrovsky has been amazing throughout the playoffs, but he has stumbled a little bit in the last two games. The Oilers’ offence was cold, but they exploded in Game 4. Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman haven’t even scored goals in the series yet, so they could get going as well. Will these trends continue to regress towards the mean, or will the Panthers shut it down in Game 5? We will have to wait until Tuesday evening to see.