September 1, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

This is part three of my series about why Connor McDavid will more than likely sign a contract extension eventually with the Edmonton Oilers. Part one focussed on the likelihood of him requesting a trade. Part two focussed on the likelihood of him leaving as an unrestricted free agent. Today’s piece will focus on the real reasons why McDavid will likely choose to stay in Edmonton.

I’ll start with the way that the Oilers organization has treated McDavid. The Oilers made their first grand gesture to McDavid by trading Taylor Hall away. The Hall trade filled a team need on defence (Adam Larsson), but part of the reason why then GM Peter Chiarelli made the trade was to give the dressing room to McDavid. The Oilers made McDavid the youngest captain in NHL history when they named him the captain of the club mere months after the Hall trade.

Related: Why McDavid Isn’t Going Anywhere: Part One – Trade Requests

The Oilers played their first regular season game at Rogers Place exactly one week after McDavid was named captain of the team. McDavid was part of a spectacular ceremony to officially open the new arena. Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier did a lap of the ice to great applause. They left the ice surface, then a video started playing. McDavid skated onto the ice to lead the team out for warm up. The spotlight shone on him as he collected a puck and calmly shot it into the empty net, which was the trigger for the rest of the team to come onto the ice and start the warm up. McDavid represented the new era in a ceremony that honoured the storied history of the team and got everyone excited about the future. He was also the first person to get to skate on the ice surface at Rogers Place. Not many players get that kind of opportunity in their life.

McDavid has had two serious injuries in his time with the Oilers. He missed 37 games with a broken collarbone in his rookie season. Mark Giordano tripped McDavid on a partial breakaway in the last game of the 2019 season, which resulted in a brutal leg and knee injury for McDavid. 

The team shot and released a documentary about McDavid’s unique recovery process for that injury that was called “Whatever It Takes”. Some teams would’ve forced McDavid to get surgery, but the Oilers allowed their prized possession to choose how he wanted to approach his recovery. Unbeliveably, he recovered in time for training camp the next season.

The Milan Lucic contract was terrible, there’s no debating that. However, McDavid had previously said in an interview long before he was drafted that Lucic is the type of winger that he would want to play with the most, as this piece from Jim Parsons noted. Chiarelli’s previous relationship with Lucic from their time together with the Boston Bruins likely played the biggest role in Lucic’s signing, but the Oilers went out and got McDavid’s preferred winger.

There have been some tumultuous years in the McDavid era, but those tough years are behind the team now. McDavid has been an integral part of building the Oilers into the team that they are today. He has played a massive role in their ascension. McDavid has been a leader in building a winning culture here. Seeing the project through is something that’s likely to provide him with a great level of satisfaction.

McDavid isn’t about individual accolades, but he’s got a chance to do some incredible things in Edmonton. McDavid will forever be tied to Wayne Gretzky because they were both the best players in the world in their primes, and they both played for the Oilers. If McDavid can play 1,118 games for the Oilers and continue scoring points at his current pace, then he would pass Gretzky for the Oilers all-time franchise points record. 

Winning a Stanley Cup or multiple Stanley Cups would elevate McDavid into the pantheon of the greatest players to ever play the sport, if he isn’t already on that track. Winning Stanley Cups in Edmonton and getting the franchise record for points would put him on a level close to Gretzky. I’m sure he doesn’t go to sleep at night thinking about stuff like that, but it might be in the back of his mind.

He’s developed strong relationships with long-time teammates like Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Leon Draisaitl. Two of the three are locked in long-term, and Draisaitl is likely to follow suit in my opinion for many of the reasons I outlined in the first two parts of this series. Friends and teammates come and go, but the chance to complete the job with guys that he’s that close with is a positive factor.

McDavid has grown as a person in Edmonton. He was an eighteen year old kid when he came here. He learned how to be an adult in Edmonton. His relationship with fiancée Lauren Kyle has certainly grown here. She has shown a commitment to the community in Edmonton. Kyle is heavily involved in the Edmonton Oilers Community Foundation. McDavid said that Edmonton checks a lot of boxes for them. That’s a massively important piece of the puzzle.

Finally, the team hired McDavid’s former agent, Jeff Jackson, to be the CEO. They have a great relationship, which can only serve to increase the odds of McDavid wanting to stay. I’ll insert a shameless plug about my recent three–part series on the subject here.

Related: Jackson’s Potential Impact on the Oilers: Part Three – Professional Scouting and Analytics

I don’t know where McDavid could go where his situation could be any better than it is with the Oilers. Any team with the necessary cap space to simply sign him as a free agent without moving players out is going to be a terrible team, which would rule them out of consideration.

A team that’s currently rebuilding that could be good in a few years might be a possibility. The Montreal Canadiens will be relieved of Carey Price’s $10.5 million cap hit in 2026. They will have to sign some of their young players by 2026, but they could be in a position to go after McDavid.

The Buffalo Sabres are another example of a young team that could be in a position to strike in 2026. They have to sign Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power along with a few young forwards by then, but they have some great value contracts that could be helpful in pursuit of a cap hit the size of McDavid’s.

Teams like the Canadiens and Sabres will need to go through similar playoff growing pains that the Oilers have had to endure in recent years. I don’t see McDavid wanting to go through that again with a new team, especially if he hasn’t won a Stanley Cup by 2026.

There aren’t many contenders that will have the cap space required to sign McDavid, but the New York Rangers could be one. Artemi Panarin’s $11,642,857 cap hit will open up in 2026, and Jacob Trouba’s $8 million cap hit will be gone that summer too. Igor Shesterkin is the only truly scary contract they have to negotiate before 2026, but the salary cap is likely to increase before then. There’s a small chance that McDavid could be enticed to go to a different contending team, but I don’t think his personality is a good fit for the New York spotlight.

Related: Why McDavid Isn’t Going Anywhere: Part Two – UFA Departures

I hope that this series of articles has helped to ease some anxiety in the Oilers fanbase. There’s a general sense of pessimism about McDavid’s desire to stay in Edmonton, and it’s entirely unfounded. It’s rooted in fear and cynicism. The arguments are ridiculous and tiresome in all honesty. I’m quite confident that McDavid will sign a contract extension with the Oilers.