September 9, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

There’s a debate topic that has been relevant to the Edmonton Oilers since the early days of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s careers. Together, McDavid and Draisaitl create the most fearsome twosome in the entire league. Keeping them apart gives the Oilers two elite scoring lines though.

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Well, the Oilers have a defensive version of the same debate now as well. Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard have become one of the best defence pairings in the entire league, but they could be split up to improve the second pairing. It’s the Bizarro version of the McDavid – Draisaitl debate. Most Oilers fans wouldn’t even entertain splitting up such a dominant pairing, but I fully believe that splitting them up is the best path forward for the Oilers.

Peering down below Ekholm and Bouchard on the depth chart is like peering down into the murky depths of the ocean. We don’t know what lies beneath. The left side is strong with Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, and Brett Kulak. The right side is an enigma. Cody Ceci and Philip Broberg are gone now. Left in their wake are Ty Emberson, Troy Stecher, and Josh Brown. None of them are guaranteed to succeed in a top four role. So, the Oilers coaching staff will have to get a little bit creative.

Finding a partner for Nurse is the most pressing issue for the Oilers defence right now since Ceci and Broberg are both gone.

@NHL_Sid has done excellent work identifying strengths and weaknesses of the Oilers’ defencemen as well as analyzing stylistic fits based on individual strengths and weaknesses. His analysis says that Nurse does not defend the blue line well, so Nurse needs a partner that defends the blue line well. Nurse also benefits from playing with an accurate passer.

The Oilers already have such a player. Bouchard is the best stylistic fit for Nurse on the team. Bouchard is the best puck moving defenceman on the team, and he defends the blue line well. He ranked first in controlled zone exits and third on the team in entry defence last season. 

They have not played together for many extended stretches, but we do have 746:31 worth of a sample size from Bouchard’s rookie season through last season to analyze:

	CF%	SF%	GF%	xGF%	HDCF%
Nurse/Bouchard 2021-22 – 2023-24	58.85%	57.21%	46.03%	58.46%	56.44%

The fear with the Nurse – Bouchard pairing is that they have both struggled with in zone defending in their careers. The gap between their goals for percentage and their expected goals percentage seems to suggest that there have been too many breakdowns that result in goals against. 

We can also look at the fact that they’ve had a 90.61% save percentage while on the ice together compared to the team’s 92.01% save percentage without them on the ice. That could be poor goaltending, or it could be a result of allowing too many high danger scoring chances. Their 56.44% high danger chances for percentage tells me that it’s not so much about the volume of scoring chances that they have surrendered as it is about not getting bounces or timely saves. It’s also fair to say that they have made some defensive errors that have led to goals against, but EVERY PAIRING makes mistakes. 

I can’t say that the Nurse – Bouchard pairing would be as incredible as the Ekholm – Bouchard pairing, but it wouldn’t be a drastic drop off. Their goal share should regress to the mean based on their expected goals percentage and their shot share metrics.

Related: Nurse and Bouchard Could be Together for a While

Putting Nurse with Bouchard still doesn’t solve the problem of figuring out who should play 2RD though. The safest option would be to put a left-handed veteran at 2RD. Kulak is the most obvious choice, but his preference is to play on the left side. Nurse hasn’t ever played his off-side. The other option is Ekholm. 

Daniel Nugent-Bowman asked Ekholm about his experience playing the right side when he was acquired by the Oilers, and he said that “I have done that in the past, it’s not a big deal. It’s obviously something that’s a bit different, but it’s not a big deal at all.” Ekholm referenced playing the right side in the first ten games of the 2022-23 season with the Nashville Predators. These were his numbers from Natural Stat Trick in those ten games:

	CF%	SF%	GF%	xGF%	HDCF%
Ekholm (1st 10 games of 2022-23)	53.56%	53.79%	58.33%	58.09%	54%

It’s a small sample size, but Ekholm was more than fine on the right side in those ten games. While his numbers would be expected to decline slightly if he was to play the right side full time, Ekholm is more than capable of doing it. His experience and skill set allow him to excel in any role he’s asked to play. I’m inclined to believe him when he says playing the right side isn’t a big deal to him.

If Nurse was to be paired with Bouchard and a left-handed defenceman was to play 2RD, then Kulak and Ekholm would be the second pairing. Both of them are capable of playing on either side. The responsibility of playing the right side wouldn’t fall fully on the shoulders of either player in that scenario.

The problem with that approach is that the Oilers don’t have an NHL option that could play the left side of the bottom pairing if Kulak isn’t there. Emberson, Stecher, and Brown are all right-handed. The next best lefties in the system are Ben Gleason and Cam Dineen. That’s why I still believe that a left-handed defenceman will get a PTO from the Oilers, and I still believe that player will be Travis Dermott.

Related: Possible Oilers defence additions

The narrative around the Ekholm – Bouchard pairing is that Ekholm stabilized Bouchard and allowed him to succeed. Let’s run with that theory for a moment here.

Ekholm’s game is so well rounded that he can basically fit with anyone. If Ekholm is the stabilizing force that brings the best out of other defencemen, doesn’t it make more sense to pair him with one of the weaker links on the right side? 

Ekholm and Emberson could form a shut down pairing. Ekholm could provide the offensive support, and Emberson could focus on defending. A “Double E” pairing in Edmonton could make for a fun story. Ekholm could also potentially be a good fit for Stecher. Ekholm could be the defensive conscience, and Stecher could be more free to roam. Rotating Emberson and Stecher in with Ekholm to shelter their minutes could be a reasonable game plan.

Related: O’Reilly and Emberson moves have Parkatti’s fingerprints all over them

You might look at Nurse and his $9.25 million cap hit and say “shouldn’t the $9.25 million defenceman be able to drive a pairing on his own?”, but let’s put salary aside for a moment here. I would trust Ekholm to anchor a second pairing with a weaker link more than I would trust Nurse to do that. If you’re using salary as an argument for what a player should or shouldn’t be doing, then I would think that you want the highest paid defenceman on the team to play on the top pairing.

I’m also not buying the idea that Bouchard needs a babysitter. I never really felt that way, but he proved it last season. His expected goals percentage actually rose by 3.52% away from Ekhom last season. In fact, the only two metrics on Natural Stat Trick where Bouchard wasn’t better away from Ekholm last season were goal share and high danger goal share, both of which were still above 55%.

Consider this as well. Bouchard struggled at the start of last season before the team turned their season around. Bouchard played with Ekholm exclusively while he was struggling through that stretch. It isn’t as if Ekholm is a magical fairy that instantly cures Bouchard of his turnovers and defensive lapses at all times.

Related: Oilers Glaring Individual Mistakes

The plan entering last season was to play Nurse and Bouchard together, and to play Ekholm with Broberg. Ekholm was hurt in training camp, and he missed the first game of the season. The Oilers went with Nurse – Bouchard for that one game, and the team lost 8-1. They quickly abandoned that plan and went back to the Ekholm – Bouchard pairing for the next game.

Some people have PTSD from that game and wouldn’t want to try Nurse – Bouchard again. Here’s the thing though: EVERYONE played poorly in that game. All three of the defence pairings were on the ice for goals against in that game. It wasn’t all Nurse and Bouchard’s fault that the team allowed eight goals. You can’t draw conclusions from a one-game sample size.

If most people believe that it’s best to keep McDavid and Draisaitl apart, then I don’t understand why keeping Ekholm and Bouchard apart is an untenable thought. I strongly believe that the best path forward is to split up the Ekholm – Bouchard pairing. Putting Nurse with Bouchard would put Nurse in the best position to succeed, and it would still be a tremendous top pairing. Ekholm is the best candidate to play with a weaker link because he’s so strong in all facets of the game, including mentorship. Having Ekholm driving the second pairing offers the most flexibility to the coaching staff for options for the bottom two pairings.